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Forums - Sales Discussion - January 2018 NPD Thread! Switch #1

AngryLittleAlchemist on 22 February 2018
celador said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:
I feel like this just confirms what I have been thinking. When PS4 won 2017 in total sales people were out champing it like that was hard for it to do ... even though it only won because of stock, pricing, and a two month headstart.

i feel the same about people championing the Switch outselling the PS4 as a huge achievement when the PS4 is 3.5 years older and the Switch started out $100 cheaper

Such a bad viewpoint when most consoles peak in the middle of their life and 2017 was PS4's peak year so giving it a victim complex doesn't make sense ... 

 

Although I'm up for just discussing things as launch-aligned as well. But you attacked both launch-aligned("started out") and current sales. So I guess we just shouldn't compare them at all ..... 



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TruckOSaurus on 22 February 2018
Aura7541 said:
TruckOSaurus said:

So it boils down to if it's a Sony issued bundle or if it's a retailer promotion. Where does the VR bundle fall? Soft or hard?

Do you mind showing me where the VR bundle is found? I know that Newegg packages the PS4 with PSVR a lot and that is a retailer promotion.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B077Y27P8Y/ref=s9_acsd_newrz_hd_bw_b710gst_c_x_w?pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_s=merchandised-search-1&pf_rd_r=HA9XD9ES03N633PWA0S3&pf_rd_r=HA9XD9ES03N633PWA0S3&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=13383fcd-a984-4438-a2f3-4286dd71368c&pf_rd_p=13383fcd-a984-4438-a2f3-4286dd71368c&pf_rd_i=6427871011



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Aura7541 on 22 February 2018
TruckOSaurus said:
Aura7541 said:

Do you mind showing me where the VR bundle is found? I know that Newegg packages the PS4 with PSVR a lot and that is a retailer promotion.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B077Y27P8Y/ref=s9_acsd_newrz_hd_bw_b710gst_c_x_w?pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_s=merchandised-search-1&pf_rd_r=HA9XD9ES03N633PWA0S3&pf_rd_r=HA9XD9ES03N633PWA0S3&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=13383fcd-a984-4438-a2f3-4286dd71368c&pf_rd_p=13383fcd-a984-4438-a2f3-4286dd71368c&pf_rd_i=6427871011

Thanks. That looks just like the packages from Newegg meaning that this is a "soft" bundle.



Farsala on 22 February 2018
LipeJJ said:
celador said:

i feel the same about people championing the Switch outselling the PS4 as a huge achievement when the PS4 is 3.5 years older and the Switch started out $100 cheaper

Actually, what you said makes it even better for Switch if we consider it came out on PS4’s peak. Like you said, it’s older than it, which actually should give it a big advantage over Switch which is still on its first year (remember Ps4’s first year? It was it’s worst sales wise). Not to mention they are the same price, like you said, while PS4 has 20x the amount of (cheaper) games and bundles.

Unless the Switch sold more than 340k, PS4's 1st January was actually better with stock issues.

271k/4 weeks, 67.75k/ week, if extrapolated to 5 weeks then it would be ~339k @$400.

Switch 5 weeks? 340k @ $300?



SWORDF1SH on 22 February 2018

Finally got to the end.

*Catches breath*

Sooooo the big surprise for me is Xbox. Congrats to Xbox because I thought is was going to drop hard when making predictions a few months ago. All 3 consoles sold amazingly well though. Switch win expected and going by the article, the PS4 was very close to the Switch which wasn't expected.


Side note:
I've mentioned it before and I agree with what people are saying that the quickrick bullying needs to stop. He's not a bad guy and the mods seem to be letting the personal jabs directed at him slide which isn't cool. And about him derailing threads, it's the bullies with mob mentality that attack him that derail threads just because he has a unpopular opinion. The way people are behaving towards him in this thread is another perfect example.



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peachbuggy on 22 February 2018
Farsala said:
LipeJJ said:

Actually, what you said makes it even better for Switch if we consider it came out on PS4’s peak. Like you said, it’s older than it, which actually should give it a big advantage over Switch which is still on its first year (remember Ps4’s first year? It was it’s worst sales wise). Not to mention they are the same price, like you said, while PS4 has 20x the amount of (cheaper) games and bundles.

Unless the Switch sold more than 340k, PS4's 1st January was actually better with stock issues.

271k/4 weeks, 67.75k/ week, if extrapolated to 5 weeks then it would be ~339k @$400.

Switch 5 weeks? 340k @ $300?

PS4's 1st January was a 5 week month.



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Lawlight on 22 February 2018
peachbuggy said:
Farsala said:

Unless the Switch sold more than 340k, PS4's 1st January was actually better with stock issues.

271k/4 weeks, 67.75k/ week, if extrapolated to 5 weeks then it would be ~339k @$400.

Switch 5 weeks? 340k @ $300?

PS4's 1st January was a 5 week month.

January 2014 was 4 weeks. January 5th to February 1st.



Lawlight on 22 February 2018
LipeJJ said:
celador said:

i feel the same about people championing the Switch outselling the PS4 as a huge achievement when the PS4 is 3.5 years older and the Switch started out $100 cheaper

Actually, what you said makes it even better for Switch if we consider it came out on PS4’s peak. Like you said, it’s older than it, which actually should give it a big advantage over Switch which is still on its first year (remember Ps4’s first year? It was it’s worst sales wise). Not to mention they are the same price, like you said, while PS4 has 20x the amount of (cheaper) games and bundles.

A console usually never peaks in its 5th year. A console in its first year would normaly outsell a console in its 5th year. And don’t forget - the 3DS peaked in its first year. And contrary to what you believe, the fourth quarter of 2014 (Jan - Mar) was actually the PS4’s best Q4. If PS4 is peaking this year, which we don’t know yet, then it’s because the PS4 is just having amazing legs. Not to mention that price favours the Switch since both are the same price with the Switch being much newer.



Lawlight on 22 February 2018
Shadow1980 said:
newwil7l said:

Consoles peak mid life not in the beginning. You are only helping to prove his point.

Usually. While the norm over the past 30 years has been a peak in the second or third full year (though later peaks are becoming the norm for PS & Xbox), occasionally a console will peak in its first full year, though only in a single region. As far as I'm aware, the SNES and N64 were the only first-year peaks in the U.S., while the GBA, Xbox, and Wii were the only first-year peaks in Japan. That being said, such occurrences are rare, and definitely doesn't apply to the PS4, which is in the middle of its life.

As for how this pertains to the Switch vs. the PS4 in the U.S., you are right that the PS4 is selling at around its peak. That the Switch, even with stock issues, has been keeping up with the PS4, even when the latter is selling at its absolute best, is quite an accomplishment. The only reason the PS4 bested the Switch for 2017 as a whole was because it had big Black Friday deals in November while the Switch did not. And when compared to the PS4's 2014, which is a more appropriate comparison, the Switch comes out on top.

Now, we don't know when the Switch will peak, but if I had to guess, maybe no later than next year, seeing as how Nintendo consoles peak earlier than PS & Xbox systems. I imagine that a likely price reductions, the possibility of new models, and of course Pokemon Gen VIII will all be factors that cause it to sell even better than it currently is. I imagine that at its peak year in the U.S., it ought to sell well in excess of 6 million units.

You cannot compare the Switch’s first year to the PS4’s 2014 because the Switch had 2 major selling periods - the launch and the holidays vs the PS4’s holidays only. On top of that, the PS4 was $100 more expensive.

And the only the PS3 and the Xbox360 peaked later so 1 generation doesn’t make it the norm.



The_Liquid_Laser on 22 February 2018

Mario, Zelda, and Mario Kart are the top 3 Switch games and at 7, 8, 9 respectively. I am thinking when people buy a Switch now they almost immediately buy these 3 games too. Their sales numbers have to be very close to one another.

Skyrim on Switch is doing very well for a port of a Gen 7 game, beating XC2, Arms and Mario + Rabbids. Just imagine when a really good and brand new third party game comes to Switch. This is not going to be a "Nintendo only" console. Third parties are watching right now and they are liking what they see. The third party games are coming. It's going to take time, but they are coming.



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