Software: Maybe...1.2-1.8million worldwide (yes I realize that's quite a sizable difference) during its first week. Most of the sales will probably be in Europe/Others, followed by US and then Japan, though, Metal Gear always seemed to be more popular in Japan than the US. Hardware: Considering the growing desire for a BC model (which may have been intentionally stimulated just as I believe the Wii did to make such a high demand for their console) it'd be a safe assumption to think it would sell anywhere from 350-500k consoles worldwide, depending on how Sony manages to supply retailers during this period. i definitely don't see MGS4 or the 80GB's impact to die immediately after the first week, but very steadily decline and rise as the big releases for the year arrive. Should Sony offer a GTA IV 80GB bundle (unlikely) this will of course affect the sales of the MGS4 bundle. Opinions and speculations, of course.

About a million first week I think, not much more, I would be extremely (pleasently) surprised if it does over 1.2 million. For hw probably 300k-350k.

MGS 4 will sell over 3 million worldwide in its first week and will pass Halo 3 first week sales. Expect MGS 4 to sell over 10 million copies in it its life time, outselling Halo 3 total sales. MGS 4 has the best graphics ever seen in a Video game. It will be easily Game of The Year for 2008. Expect average review scores of over 95% for MGS 4. MGS 4 will also move a lot of PS3 consoles.

SF
least 1.2 nillion
most 2.5 million
Average 1.8 million

50% Others
35% America
15% Japan

HW
least 300k
most 450k
average 380k

45% Others
40% America
15% Japan

The game has a pretty dedicated fanbase, so the first week could well do 1-2M worldwide. Definitely nowhere near the numbers done by Halo 3, though.

Not to be an asshole, but anyone saying it's going to do over 5 million is thinking with something other than their brain...

Over 3 mln. First week.
~0.5 mln. Japan, ~1,0 mln. USA, ~1,5 mln. Europe.

Over 500k PS3. WW.

 I gotta give Rock_on credit, the guy's got some guts.

MGS4 will have great graphics, but I'm personally looking forward to gameplay improvements and the storyline.  I don't think having the best graphics ever(another topic entirely) will suddenly make it outsell Halo 3's first week sales.

I do agree that it will help move a good amount of PS3's, but don't think it will have a "generation winner"-effect like GTA3 did. 

ur first week numbers are too high

It wont outsell halo 3 first week or ever. It will still sell extremely well. The only chance it has of beating halo 3 is if the bundle is kept in circulation for a very long time. But even then I think halo 3 will win.

I think its hard to call this one. Normally I'd look at previous MGS results (and clearly the previous titles represent good data points) but I think the following effects are hard to call right now:

a) general growth of videogames market. The market is much bigger than when last PS2 MGS game came out and looking at sales of AC (which I think is a reasonable comparison game) vs its 'light' gameplay I can easily see MGS 4 outselling previous iterations assuming reviews/hype are good

b) GT5:P sales indicate to me that PS3 owners (or those considering the console) will respond strongly to proven PS brand franchises and MGS 4 to me has long been positioned as the 'must have' PS3 exclusive

c) It's exclusive and previews indicate it does use PS3 HW well and deliver a good reason to play games on 1080p TVs

d) Will GTA IV impact this game? Could it become the PS3 'must have' title even though it's multi-platform and will gamers lean to it vs MGS?

Depending upon how you judge the above I can see MGS 4 selling the same as MGS 3 or selling above the others. While a) b) and c) I think are all looking good for the game, I wonder if d) will drive HW sales for PS3 that reduce impact of MGS - i.e. will people buy a PS3 for GTA IV knowing MGS is coming vs buy a PS3 when MGS hits?