I don't know, but I know they're not leaving. As long as MS makes billions, they'll keep Xbox around as a pet project even if it's not profitable. I have a feeling the next console is going to be REALLY interesting. Watching MS mobilize around Xbox this gen has been eye-opening at the lengths they'll go to keep the brand relevant. If they haven't pulled away from markets like Japan, then it means they still have ideas in store.
This isn't like Windows Phone, where they're up against competitors as huge as they are, that they can't really outspend them to get leeway in the market. Gaming is different. Nintendo and Sony are smaller in comparison and bowing out against them could be seen as a high-profile loss. Xbox will be here, doing what they do.
But they dont Outspend Sony either.
Just because Microsoft swims in money doesn't mean that the Xbox Team has a blank check to do whatever they want.
It appears to me that Xbox has less budget than with the X360, at least that is what i feel about this gen.
It's like they are existing, kinda doing their thing but nothing more.
This has been my least favorite gen of any other Xbox console. By far.
They don't have a blank check to do what they want, sure. But, they are given a LOT of headroom to do what they need to do. I think the division exhausted a lot of their efforts this gen doing everything in the book. Buying Mojang to add Minecraft to software sales, the constant price cuts and game giveaways, third-party deals (they got burned on), pushing for the system to be sold in China. They likely spent a lot. They have a lot of money to do things on the fly, like throwing Kinect out of the box, killing the DRM, dedicating a whole team to b/c and make two new iterations of the console while they're at it.
They lost billions on the very first Xbox and came back spending like it was no tomorrow the very next gen. As long as MS remains interested, they'll hang in there. I think their overall pride will keep them in the market. The only way MS would pull out of the console market is if they started losing profits on a regular basis and investors would look to Xbox as a scapegoat. Until then, I don't think there's a danger in that happening.