Ajax said:
The point we are making is that not just that they are misaligned but that its also comparing against a period of PS2 sales before it really took off as the major success we all think of it as.
but you don't think that maybe the ps3, just like the ps2 did after this period, will also take off?
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I'd say it would be highly unlikely for several reasons.
1. The Sony reputation was at a high back in 2002. It is substantially less high now.
2. The PS2 had hit below $200, considered to be the ideal price point. The PS3 is at least 2 holidays away from that price, even a discount model.
3. In 2001, the PS2 had a near perfect holiday, with every big game - GTA3, Devil May Cry, MGS2, GT3, FFX - coming up aces both in reviews and sales. By the 2002 holiday, neither MS nor Nintendo had anything to match that (MS had Halo only, Nintendo SSBM), and in fact many of those games (esp GTA3) were still in demand the next holiday. This generation, no console appears to have a monopoly on big titles.
4. 2002 saw a huge shift in 3rd party support away from MS and Nintendo, towards Sony. This further shored up PS2's library while undermining the compeition. Such a shift is not happening this generation, and 3Ps seem to have learned the value of not tossing all their chips behind one console.
5. DVD sales were a huge factor for the PS2 in 2001 and 2002.BluRay, as of yet, doesn't appear likely to have the same sort of demand, and it is very possible that BR hardware will drop below PS3 prices this year or next, which will reduce incentive to buy a PS3 as a BR Player at exactly the time that BR demand will be increasing.