Even if Sony "wins", have they really "won"?

[misterd]

1) If sales maintain their 2008 paces for both the PS3 and 360, it would still take 2 years for the PS3 to catch the 360. While I don't expect that to happen exactly, I'm not yet convinced that the PS3 can get a big enough sales differential to overtake the 360 by a substantial margin before the NeXBox is announced, at which point most people will stop caring about this horse race.

2) No matter what happens to the PS3, Sony is the clear loser this generation simply because it has lost so much of the market that it used to dominate. The best it can hope for, I think, is that people looking back on the PS3 will think "nice recovery" rather than "total collapse".

3) MS will be a push, at best, small victory at most, because while it will finish either 2nd or 3rd, it will have increased its market share since the XBox1, and given Sony a run for their money (albiet because Sony dropped their balls). 8 years ago people questioned whether MS could even compete in this business, and now there is no question that they are a legitmate player, and, at least in the US, the console of choice for "hardcore" gamers.

4) Nintendo wins this generation, barring an unprecedented collapse. But Nintendo has to recognize based on prior generations that brand loyalty is heavily overrated in this business. They have shown MS and Sony how to get to this new market, and should expect them to try to mimic and top Nintendo's efforts in the next generation. Just as the DVD-driven PS2 shaped the development of the PS3 and 360, so too will the Wii's unique interface shape the next generation. Whether this will be a successful strategy or not can't yet be known, but I honestly think that, at thispoint, the next generation is going to be completely up for grabs, with the lone exception of MS in Japan. This is a big change from the "PS3 will own all" attitude at the start of this generation, and that is nothing but a loss for Sony.