How many people look at pictures or actually read text?

I worked retail for about 15years. Its astonishing the level of incompetence in the average Joe. Most people will look at the pics on all the retail mags and see GTA4 on a 360 box and that's it. They will probably see the bigger fonts of price as well.

I guess we'll know soon enought, but, I have always maintained that GTA4 will sell much better on 360.

Look at GHIII for similarities. Strongly casual game. PS2>360>Wii>>PS3.

my best buy flyer in canada has the picture of the ps3 box for the collectors edition

so people will also assume that Viking: Battle for Asgard is PS3 exclusive or the definitive version is on the PS3? i think you're reaching a bit here, anyone that can read will notice that its available for both systems, also when they walk into the store they'll see GTA4 is clearly on the PS3 as well as the 360.

Exactly my point BCN.

In terms of software there is only one major precedent so far (i.e. a major PlayStation franchise that is now multiplatform), and that's DMC4, which has sold more worldwide on PS3 than on 360. Going by this single piece of evidence, since it is the only relevant one we have, it certainly looks as though the game will sell nearly as well on PS3 as on 360. Obviously, there will be a greatly reduced Japan factor, while the much greater popularity of GTA will make installed bases more important, so there is no doubt that in the short term at least 360 will sell more software, but there is no reason to believe it will be even close to 2:1.

As for hardware, the beast that is GTA is what will make people go out and make a decision, but that decision will be determined by the other games around GTAIV, and in my opinion MGS4 and the recently released GT5P will lead most to opt for PS3. At the very least this situation will obtain for Europe. It may be different in the US, but in that case its plausible that we will simply see a continuation of recent trends but on a much more bloated scale, i.e. PS3 ahead ww but not by much.

Yeah at my local GAME in Merry Hill and Wolverhampton they are pushing the hell out of the PS3 version. I saw on the shop front window GTA spelt out using the PS3 versions box art saying underneath it and above it"PREORDER THE BIGGEST GAME IN HISTORY". The same day i was there i was standing in line and two people preorder the PS3 version, now perhaps it's just in the UK but is clear that the PS3 version is gonna sell alot here.

On GTA IV release week the 360 will outsell the ps3 in NA and others combined. NOT including Japan.

*looks at Europe*

Hardware reliability and the PlayStation brand do a play a part in many people's decision making, hence why the ps3 is doing so well in Europe. You can't discount this.

Of course, affordability also takes its toll, but, as shown over the past three months, more people are going with the more expensive system that has less games, and they are doing this for a reason. GTAIV will only exemplify this trend at larger numbers than before.

And while GTAIV is a US-centric franchise, sales between the 360 and ps3 have been neck and neck in the US over the past couple of months, and with GT5P hitting shelves just two weeks before GTAIV in NA, that will certainly have it's effect on things, much more so than DLC.

Will some people go for the lower priced system? Certainly. Will some people go with the brand they know and trust? Definitely. Will some people choose the more reliable system? Of course. Different people will choose different console depending on their own needs. Both you and the OP have essentially said that all people will base their decisions on a single aspect of the situation, and that is not the way things work.

The fact that the GTA3 games were on PS2 first doesn't matter. Didn't they get ported to Xbox and PC anyway?

But that's beside the point. A large portion of those PS2 gamers are now 360 gamers...and out of the 2 possible systems that play GTA4, I'm guessing a lot will go for the cheaper one. Not to mention the DLC on 360.

you pulled that right out of thin air.

plus, how can a large portion of them be 360 gamers when there are only 18million 360 gamers? you're saying that a large portion of the gta crowd make up a good fraction of the 360 install base?