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Forums - Nintendo - Only Minecraft and Street Fighter for May? Can Switch sell well this month?

 

Switch will be ok?

Switch will win May NPD 227 54.57%
 
Nintendo will drop Switch 30 7.21%
 
Wii U shall rise and take the throne 79 18.99%
 
See results 80 19.23%
 
Total:416
Zod95 on 16 April 2017
Wyrdness said:
Zod95 said:

I'm already on record. See my signature.

When WiiU launched (end of 2012) I was predicting 65M total sales, when most people thought that was an incredibly low number. In the beginning of 2014 (and you can check my signature on that) I was dramatically adjusting it to 25M, and again most people thought that it was too low (almost hateful). Now we all know it will end at around 15M.

Switch is revolutionizing as much as WiiU and I'm only predicting more for it because it sold more than twice (on its first week) than Wii or WiiU.

But I want you on the record too. Make a prediction for Switch total sales by the end of 2020. Then we'll see who's closer.

The's one problem with your prediction, the portable market, the is only one platform that currently will provide gaming for portable market consumers in future and all the 3DS and Vita userbases need to go somewhere for that, Switch isn't revolutionizing it's an evolution which can be just as good. By 2020 a significant number of them would have migrated to Switch which will be above your 20m prediction.

A 300$ handheld won't sell that good, specially in a vanishing market.

Claiming Switch sales will be above my prediction isn't enough. Make your own prediction for the end of 2020. Are you able to?



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

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Zod95 on 16 April 2017
EricFabian said:
Zod95 said:
Switch will not win May NPD. Nintendo will not drop it. And WiiU will not rise in sales.

I predict Switch will be another WiiU.

Switch will double Wii U numbers. Is impossible it to sell around 20M. I don't believe Switch will pull a Wii, but there is no way it end with only 20M

Are you predicting 28M for the end of 2020?



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

EricFabian on 16 April 2017
Zod95 said:
EricFabian said:

Switch will double Wii U numbers. Is impossible it to sell around 20M. I don't believe Switch will pull a Wii, but there is no way it end with only 20M

Are you predicting 28M for the end of 2020?

30M or so. Japan will do the trick. There will be no 3DS or Vita by 2020. Heck, Switch can sell 12~15M in Japan alone by 2020. I will stay with 30M because I can't predict Europe sales right now, for all we know Europe is gonna be a Sonyland forever, but who knows?



Wyrdness on 16 April 2017
Zod95 said:
Wyrdness said:

The's one problem with your prediction, the portable market, the is only one platform that currently will provide gaming for portable market consumers in future and all the 3DS and Vita userbases need to go somewhere for that, Switch isn't revolutionizing it's an evolution which can be just as good. By 2020 a significant number of them would have migrated to Switch which will be above your 20m prediction.

A 300$ handheld won't sell that good, specially in a vanishing market.

Claiming Switch sales will be above my prediction isn't enough. Make your own prediction for the end of 2020. Are you able to?

Funny because it sold 2.5m in one month according to data so far and is still sold out something that says a 300 quid portable is perfectly fine and it won't be that price forever either, I still remember many people last year thinking launch wouldn't do so well being outside of the holiday season and so far that has received a hard answer and it has yet to have a holiday period and this is before the likes of Pokemon, Mario Odyssey, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing, Smash etc...

I'll give you a prediction for 2020, 40m twice your own.



Slownenberg on 16 April 2017

I'd be surprised if Switch is under 45 million by the end of 2020.

9 million 2017
11 million 2018
12 million 2019
13 million 2020

That's all it would take, I think that it will sell 9 million in 2017 but I had to pick low numbers the next three years to even make it as low as 45 mil. It will most likely be in the 50's million by end of 2020. Consider price cut and pokemon game in 2019 to start bringing in all those 3ds gamers.



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zygote on 16 April 2017

I actually haven't played Minecraft yet, but will buy it for the Switch. I'm sure die hard Minecraft fans and others like me will love to get the ultra versatile Switch to newly absorb themselves in the whole Minecraft world. With Switch still selling out due to launch momentum and Zelda, this and Mario Kart 8 will be more than enough to keep demand popping for another month or so. Coasting on that wave till Holiday hits. This doesn't even account for the inevitable desire to have multiple Switch systems in households once more games are released.

I also think Zelda is such a phenomenal experience that a lot of Switch owners are going to expect and look for other huge expansive worlds to interact and be creative with with their Switch experiences.  Other games that are not as immersive or fleshed out are going to fall flat.  Minecraft is perfect to carry that desire forward.



Zod95 on 16 April 2017
EricFabian said:
Zod95 said:

Are you predicting 28M for the end of 2020?

30M or so. Japan will do the trick. There will be no 3DS or Vita by 2020. Heck, Switch can sell 12~15M in Japan alone by 2020. I will stay with 30M because I can't predict Europe sales right now, for all we know Europe is gonna be a Sonyland forever, but who knows?

Either you'll be right or so, or you'll be wrong or so. Come on, commit to a prediction. Otherwise, how can you criticize mine?

I've also noted how you claim my 20M is so low while only predicting 50% more.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Zod95 on 16 April 2017
Wyrdness said:
Zod95 said:

A 300$ handheld won't sell that good, specially in a vanishing market.

Claiming Switch sales will be above my prediction isn't enough. Make your own prediction for the end of 2020. Are you able to?

Funny because it sold 2.5m in one month according to data so far and is still sold out something that says a 300 quid portable is perfectly fine and it won't be that price forever either, I still remember many people last year thinking launch wouldn't do so well being outside of the holiday season and so far that has received a hard answer and it has yet to have a holiday period and this is before the likes of Pokemon, Mario Odyssey, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing, Smash etc...

I'll give you a prediction for 2020, 40m twice your own.

After your first paragraph, I was expecting you to state 100M or more. What's the matter? 2.5M in 1 month, possibility to capture the handheld market (80M last generation), great titles yet to be launched...Just 40M in 4 years?

I don't feel my prediction is an absurd anymore.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Zod95 on 16 April 2017
Slownenberg said:
I'd be surprised if Switch is under 45 million by the end of 2020.

9 million 2017
11 million 2018
12 million 2019
13 million 2020

That's all it would take, I think that it will sell 9 million in 2017 but I had to pick low numbers the next three years to even make it as low as 45 mil. It will most likely be in the 50's million by end of 2020. Consider price cut and pokemon game in 2019 to start bringing in all those 3ds gamers.

Can you precise a number for the end of 2020?



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Slownenberg on 16 April 2017
Zod95 said:
Slownenberg said:
I'd be surprised if Switch is under 45 million by the end of 2020.

9 million 2017
11 million 2018
12 million 2019
13 million 2020

That's all it would take, I think that it will sell 9 million in 2017 but I had to pick low numbers the next three years to even make it as low as 45 mil. It will most likely be in the 50's million by end of 2020. Consider price cut and pokemon game in 2019 to start bringing in all those 3ds gamers.

Can you precise a number for the end of 2020?

I would say 53 million by end of 2020.