I am really curious to see how the weekly ratio is gonna change for the all the consoles now that the Switch is out.
NieR Ni OH RE7 killing it makes me happy.
trunkswd said:
I can't make any past adjustments, but I am now responsible for updating the hardware figures. I've been lowering PSV figures a bit each week (outside of Japan) to a point where it makes more sense. Any other weekly changes you think should be made? |
Trunks...
New 3ds xl pikachu was released on the 24th of february in NA! 3DS was MOM yoy by 77% according to NPD, not surprising since it had stock issues* in January ( due to way higher than expected sales on holidays, triggered by Pokemon S/M and the ongoing effect of Pokemon go ) , that Nintendo beginned fixing them on February and they released a pikachu themed new 3ds xl in the last days of february! http://nintendoeverything.com/february-2017-npd-3ds-unit-sales-up-77-percent-from-last-month/
https://www.yahoo.com/tech/nintendo-3ds-sold-everywhere-alternatives-135604124.html*
https://www.google.gr/#q=3ds+sold+out+polygon&*&spf=109*
Taking into account that you had 3DS weekly baseline up by 8k compared to January's it means that you caught that Nintendo is resolving 3DS scarcity in the USA, but you have missed the sales of the release of New 3dsl xl pikachu edition, which is somewhat sad!
| RolStoppable said: Haven't looked at VGC's hardware totals in a while, but they really need work. Wii U - Overtracked. IIRC shipments were at 13.8m by the end of 2016. Xbox One - No solid reference points, but likely overtracked. PS4 - Overtracked. VGC has 400k units more by the end of 2016 than Sony's press release. 3DS - Undertracked. Shipments were above 65m by the end of 2016 and the system has been selling well during the holidays. PSV - Overtracked. In addition to the 1m week out of nowhere, there's an ongoing error with the extrapolation, so the total margin of error has kept growing for about two years. Being off is excuseable for the systems that no reference points are provided for, but the others should be adjusted, so that at least the LTD numbers are correct. |
Shipment was 13.56m... Wii u is overtracked in NA/USA by 300k, which is known by a leak in npd june or july, I have informed ioi via Machina!
No comment for xbox! ( Maybe rest of Europe sales are questionable )
PS4 is truly overtracked but if vgc adjusts it down, then ps4 may end up be being undertrackedand and 400k is within the margin of error! The next official sales figures from sony ps4, could be 57.1 and vgc's same or close to that, while it was overtracked by 400k in a previous time interval. Now you get what I mean.
3DS is almost spot on! ( From Nintendo's ir site )
A bit undertracked in France ( by 50k ), even though I have to confess that I find weird that vgc has 3DS sales in Germany fairly below the UK's! Nintendo perfoms far better in Germany than in the UK and vgc agrees with that, just see Pokemon S/M sales between these to countries, 362k difference, the numbers are near to the sales in France thoug, which the best european market for Nintendo and one of the best markets for Nintendo in general. However, the hardware sales between FR/GE have a differece of 1.4m, it's not improbable to be huge ( given France's love for Nintendo ) but not so much! Perhaps, 3DS is overtracked in the rest of Europe ( exluding spain/italy ) and equally undertracked in Germany!
PSV... It's an issue that I exposed twice ! This is time, ioi will have to remove that 1m... Wherefore, CESA new shipments estimation of psv was 12.46 as of 2015 ( 12.9m sold for vgc ) and he noted that if the next update ( even if its unofficial ) shows a huge discrepancy again, he will adjust it down! Although, as you say the problem isn't just that added 1m.
Time for some history!
PSV had shipped 1.8m and PSP 76.3m as of 2012! Then sony started to aggregate their shipments, they shipped 14.3m psp+psv till the first quarter of 2015, after that they beginned hiding psv shipments!
1.8m+76.3m= 78.1+14.4=92.5m! In a interview with a sony executive, it was mentioned that psp has sold 82.3m, many doubted that this came from the mouth of the sony executive and they deemed as a fabrication from the journalist.
92.5m-82.3m=10.2m...
Later we had an estimation of shipments by cesa, that were 9.76m as of 2014 ( VGC had psv at 9.3m then ) . Sony shipped 450k psv+psp in the FY14 Q4, psp was basically discontinued from the most markets as of December 2014. 9.76m+450= 10.21m!
Which implies, that truly sony executive revealed PSP LT sales, since the above two add up and substantiate each other, also it proves the legitimacy of cesa's estimation! Anywise, cesa is not a random company, they hold Tokyo game show and Japan video game awards! They must have insiders in sony.
The annoying thing, is that vgc was tracking it rightly till 2014, as it seems! Then news about psv having a lot higher sales in Spain, than France, UK, GE, made ioi to make the misguided vast adjustment up in April 2015, because he mistakenly thought that psv does exceptionally in every less bigger european market and the small ones.
A vgc member with his unfounded assumptions contributed to that too! I won't say the name here!
P.s Sony was combining psp and psv shipments, psp someday inevitably died... That's why sony changed their diclosure policy!
2B claims the top spot. Why? Because the rest of the games wanted to see that booty from down below.
tak13 said:
Shipment was 13.56m... Wii u is overtracked in NA/USA by 300k, which is known by a leak in npd june or july, I have informed ioi via Machina! No comment for xbox! ( Maybe rest of Europe sales are questionable ) PS4 is truly overtracked but if vgc adjusts it down, then ps4 may end up be being undertrackedand and 400k is within the margin of error! The next official sales figures from sony ps4, could be 57.1 and vgc's same or close to that, while it was overtracked by 400k in a previous time interval. Now you get what I mean. 3DS is almost spot on! ( From Nintendo's ir site ) A bit undertracked in France ( by 50k ), even though I have to confess that I find weird that vgc has 3DS sales in Germany fairly below the UK's! Nintendo perfoms far better in Germany than in the UK and vgc agrees with that, just see Pokemon S/M sales between these to countries, 362k difference, the numbers are near to the sales in France thoug, which the best european market for Nintendo and one of the best markets for Nintendo in general. However, the hardware sales between FR/GE have a differece of 1.4m, it's not improbable to be huge ( given France's love for Nintendo ) but not so much! Perhaps, 3DS is overtracked in the rest of Europe ( exluding spain/italy ) and equally undertracked in Germany! PSV... It's an issue that I exposed twice ! This is time, ioi will have to remove that 1m... Wherefore, CESA new shipments estimation of psv was 12.46 as of 2015 ( 12.9m sold for vgc ) and he noted that if the next update ( even if its unofficial ) shows a huge discrepancy again, he will adjust it down! Although, as you say the problem isn't just that added 1m.
Time for some history! PSV had shipped 1.8m and PSP 76.3m as of 2012! Then sony started to aggregate their shipments, they shipped 14.3m psp+psv till the first quarter of 2015, after that they beginned hiding psv shipments! 1.8m+76.3m= 78.1+14.4=92.5m! In a interview with a sony executive, it was mentioned that psp has sold 82.3m, many doubted that this came from the mouth of the sony executive and they deemed as a fabrication from the journalist. 92.5m-82.3m=10.2m... Later we had an estimation of shipments by cesa, that were 9.76m as of 2014 ( VGC had psv at 9.3m then ) . Sony shipped 450k psv+psp in the FY14 Q4, psp was basically discontinued from the most markets as of December 2014. 9.76m+450= 10.21m!
Which implies, that truly sony executive revealed PSP LT sales, since the above two add up and substantiate each other, also it proves the legitimacy of cesa's estimation! Anywise, cesa is not a random company, they hold Tokyo game show and Japan video game awards! They must have insiders in sony.
The annoying thing, is that vgc was tracking it rightly till 2014, it seems! News about psv having a lot higher sales in Spain, than France, UK, GE, made ioi to make the misguided vast adjustment up in April 2015, because he mistakenly thought that psv does exceptionally in every less bigger european market and the small ones. A vgc member with his unfounded assumptions contributed to that too! I won't say the name here! P.s Sony was combining psp and psv shipments, psp someday inevitably died... That's why sony changed their diclosure policy! |
The great thing though, is that even if you adjusted vita down a massive 1.5m and adjusted the Wii U down to its rightful place, the vita still won't finish last this gen.
Plus every week the vita extends it's lead with better weekly sales in 2017. We can argue over the margin of the Vita's victory but for me I'm just happy to know it won.
Kerotan said:
The great thing though, is that even if you adjusted vita down a massive 1.5m and adjusted the Wii U down to its rightful place, the vita still won't finish last this gen.
Plus every week the vita extends it's lead with better weekly sales in 2017. We can argue over the margin of the Vita's victory but for me I'm just happy to know it won. |
in other words, "i dont care how accurate the numbers are as long as my company of choice wins!!!!!"
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
zorg1000 said:
in other words, "i dont care how accurate the numbers are as long as my company of choice wins!!!!!" |
Nah I do care but I also care for what you said.
| Kerotan said: Nah I do care but I also care for you |
aww thats so sweet of you
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
zorg1000 said:
in other words, "i dont care how accurate the numbers are as long as my company of choice wins!!!!!" |
Hahahaha...
However, he is likely right... So he can celebrate this time because what he was yearning for, might have truly happened!
Now we need Celine ( gaf member ) to leak the CESA estimation of shipments for 2016 as he/she did for 2015, the report will be released in July 2017!
Cesa estimated 12.46m psv shipped as of 2015, +2.7m from 2014! PSV sold 1.1m in 2015 in Japan alone! Therefore, CESA's report must be accurate or close.
We had news about psv being discontinued in the Netherlands in summer 2016, people from many european countries are citing that they can't find a psv in any store, which is true at least for my country, we had psv units till july ( and wii u till december ) ! As for NA where it has only sold in the 2m range ( I say only, because wii u which is a commercial flop too has sold 6m there ) , it must have been discontinued since 2015, vgchart concurs with that because since 2016 we see three digit sales in the whole NA in the weeklies and just 1k in the period of holidays, plus that we had npd leaks for psv during 2015, the last on was about 100k-130k in november when there were firesales, maybe an indication of discontinuation!
Perhaps, psv was being shipped only in the Japan, row and the big five of Europe in the second semester of 2016!
Hence, I wouldn't expect more than 1m-1.3m in 2016... ( it sold 800k in Japan )
If psv hasn't surpassed wii u by the end of 2016, it will probably do it within 2017 thanks to Japan.
Nintendo curtailed the production of wii u in 2016 due to switch, they even killed the huge momentum from splatoon and super mario maker from 2015 in Japan.
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