There is a corolation between the two.

Lets say in 2017 nintendo makes 9m switch units.

How many of those will sell in the USA? half? 4.5m

Lets say Playstation 4 sells 18,5m this year, how many will they sell in the USA? 1/3? thats like 6m.

Im just saying Nintendo Switch will win some months... but probably NOT all of them all year after its release.

I dont see why thats a issue to understand, it seems reasonable for me.

Yes Switch might win a few NPDs, but its not going to beat the PS4 overall sales in the US in 2017 I feel.

It might not even win more NPDs this year than the PS4 does.

Ah I see! But yeah. I agree with you there. The only way I think the Switch can beat the PS4 in the US is if the whole "Switch and HD Rumble" concept gets across to people. And if the next Pokemon game is exclusive on the Switch and releases in 2017. 

Because of Halo Wars 2 ?

I expect Horizon : Zero Dawn, to have a bigger effect tbh.

I could see Sony takeing feb. as well.

Not only Halo Wars 2. The Forza 500gb bundle releases at the start of the month and Halo Wars 2 last week of the month.

I agree with many points you're making but there is a difference as I pointed out earlier and it's one of perception. When you go from the PS4 to the Pro you're going from 'the most powerful' to 'even more powerful'. When you go from the XB1 to the Scorpio you are going from 'the least powerful' to 'the most powerful'. I believe that is enough to encourage more current 'hardcore' XB1 owners to upgrade in order to at last have the upper hand in the hardware spec battle. The shape of what you are saying I agree with though, and it's going to be entertaining to see the realisation it wasn't the power but software library that heavily tipped the scales.

That's impressively specific :) 

A $300 PS4pro with a game and a $200 PS4s with a game will make a world of difference.

MS will scream true 4k from the rooftops. Sony will scream 4k at a lower price. MS will do relatively well in the holidays as usual. Sony will do better.

Unlike last year, MS doesn't have the library to push the holiday season this year around. Its back in the hands of the PS4 just like iit was in 2015. 

Forget the forum wars and arguments. The scorpio at $400+ but with the exact same library of $200 consoles is going to do just as well as the PS4pro did, and maybe even less now cause now there will be a cheaper 4k console on the market.