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Forums - Sales - Was PS4 overshipped in FY16 Q1 (APR-JUN ) or simply having a lot of stock ( more than 2m ) is just a normal thing ? (PLEASE, YOU HAVE TO READ THE OP )

Roronaa_chan said:
tak13 said:

I'm telling  that it could be overshipped ( not that it's overshipped )  in the FY16 Q1, not last quarter... Since you don't overship in two quarters back to back for obvious reasons.

I'm asking for the opinion of people based on the 40m ps4 units sold as of May 22 and 43.5m shipped as of the end of  June.

That's a reply to people that find irrational  ps4 stock to be at 2.7m currently!

Then how would it not be overshipped last quarter in that case? 2.7m for October? The PS4 is gonna have a hard time breaking as little as 0.5M this month. Last quarter shipments can't possibly include Pro and holiday Slim bundles. What are those +2m PS4s gonna be doing sitting around in Nov+Dec. I don't see much more than 1.5M on shelves because that's all they need for October and early Nov, and there'll still be some left. They are bound to ship ~10M in the last quarter of the year, they have no use for that many on shelves at the end of September.

I appreciate so much that you finally want to discuss it seriously!

You said it, ps4 slim isn't doing well owing to PS4 pro imminent release! Why then, shelves wouldn't be stuffed with slim models ( stagnant stock ) ?  As for the quarter that I'm citing  plus july, sony probably shipped all of their og PS4 inventory.

You know, companies, have a huge amount of a manufactured product in their warehouses, waiting to be shipped in the stores!

 

As for the alleged 2.7m stock +/- , it  can be stock of the newly PS4 slim and stagnant stock of original model, og PS4 should be sold out  till holidays, since it has gotten all those clearance deals since june,  and to get discontinued soon-after!  

Ps4 slim will be the cheap model through the ps4 lifetime, accompanying the more expensive powerful model Hence PS4 slim should have a lot of stock regardless its sales, at least in  its launch period! Sony seeing the effect of PS4 pro anticipation on ps4 slim sales, may  curtail ps slim  production/shipments later! They aren't able to foresee that the 399$ powerful model would cut  so many sales from the cheap redesign/revision.

Lastly, holidays is all  about price! So ps4 slim stock must definately be fairly high.

P.s

We're talking about a console that is able to pull a million on a normal month, if it had just 1.5m stock, it would face stock problems!



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I think last quarter included a lot os Slims. May be Sony has overestimeted it's apeal.

Or May be they were preparing for the Hollydays. We will only know in february



Roronaa_chan said:
tak13 said:

Also, I'm not saying that is overshipped! I said that 2.5m on the shelves could be a normal thing...

So you're saying they overshipped

and then overshipped again next quarter

Cause overshipping is something you do after you've overshipped

Next quarter overshipping is gonna be cu-reyyyyy-zee

Yo dawg I heard you like to overship.  so you over shipped just after you over shipped so you could over ship!  

 

To answer the OP,  no I think it's undertracked on here. I'd guess 500-700k. Ps4 is a beast. 



Sony reported low inventory this quarter so I don't know how they could be overshipped but yes I would imagine there are always 1-3 million consoles sitting on shelves across the world. Usually towards the lower end. Ship should never equal sold. You always want product on the shelf to sell.



It may seem that way if only looking at numbers. But lets look at a few other things. Uncharted 4 was released around that time too, may or june. And there was an Uncharted bundle introduced around that time. That could explain why Sony may have "over shipped" and unless we factor in exactly how many unites were sold in the month of June and July then we can't really say.

Then there is also that in July August there were reports of stock shortages especially in Japan and a few other regions. We all took that as indication that the Neo was probably just around the corner buy we got the PS4s instead.

Whatever the case, look at the Q2 shipped numbers. 3.9M, they wouldn't ship that much out if they still have more than half that number (2.5-2.7 or even 3M) just sitting on shelves. Stores just wouldn't pick them up if they are having issues getting rid of old stock.

So the fact that they shipped out 3.9M in Q3 should out your theory to rest. It's proof that the channels were never at anytime flooded.



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Rip Ps4, selling more than twice than your closest competitors is not enough anymore.

RIP Sony.



Intrinsic said:
It may seem that way if only looking at numbers. But lets look at a few other things. Uncharted 4 was released around that time too, may or june. And there was an Uncharted bundle introduced around that time. That could explain why Sony may have "over shipped" and unless we factor in exactly how many unites were sold in the month of June and July then we can't really say.

Then there is also that in July August there were reports of stock shortages especially in Japan and a few other regions. We all took that as indication that the Neo was probably just around the corner buy we got the PS4s instead.

Whatever the case, look at the Q2 shipped numbers. 3.9M, they wouldn't ship that much out if they still have more than half that number (2.5-2.7 or even 3M) just sitting on shelves. Stores just wouldn't pick them up if they are having issues getting rid of old stock.

So the fact that they shipped out 3.9M in Q3 should out your theory to rest. It's proof that the channels were never at anytime flooded.

I like your calm and enlightening answer, but all of you stick to the overshipping part!

I'm not saying that it's overshipped but that it could be or that's normal for a console with sales of PS4 to have 2.5m+ stock.

The bolded is the reason why I'm being reserved with my theory about overshipping! I have noted in a comment what you mention in the bolded part!



Kerotan said:
Roronaa_chan said:

So you're saying they overshipped

and then overshipped again next quarter

Cause overshipping is something you do after you've overshipped

Next quarter overshipping is gonna be cu-reyyyyy-zee

Yo dawg I heard you like to overship.  so you over shipped just after you over shipped so you could over ship!  

 

To answer the OP,  no I think it's undertracked on here. I'd guess 500-700k. Ps4 is a beast. 

At least, someone considers a reasonable number of a probable undertracking of
PS4... 500k! If PS4 is undertracked, it would be by 500k! Not 1m... lol

Official sales and educated sales assumptions ( for markets that we don't have official data ) which are very generous, leading to the conclusion of PS4 
having 2.2m on the shelves...

So, those assumptions might not be generous afterall, because PS4 is such a beast, that might have attained on june what I 
call a generous assumption!

It was overtracked by 1.3m on May, it cannot went from that to 1m undertracking just in 4  months...



iNathan said:
Rip Ps4, selling more than twice than your closest competitors is not enough anymore.

RIP Sony.

This is not a console wars thead my friend... :)

Yeah, PS4 is a sales beast and currently its shipments are spectacular...



I find it hard to believe that they would overship the old model that nobody will want anymore. It's undertracked.