And thats a ridiculous assumption on their part. The PS4pro and Scorpio and even the NS coming next year pretty much guaranteed that this gen isn't ending in the next 3yrs. I have talked about this before, we need at least another fabrication die shrink to have tech that could even remotely facilitate what we would consider as next gen hardware. On the 14nm process, the  PS4pro and scorpio is the best we will get till 7nm fabrication comes along. 

And by all indications we wont even see the first 7nm chips till 2019 if we are lucky. And that's talking about Intel who usually gets there first and then everyone catches on like 1/2yrs later. By 2018 we could start seeing 10nm chips but that will only be good for  smaller consoles and lower prices and not good enough for performance bumps similar to what we have now from PS4-PS4pro.

I am with you on 2017 being the PS4s peak year, and i don't see too much of a drop off from then to 2018. 

Intel won't release 7nm until 2021-2022 apparently. There will be nodes called 7nm from Samsung and TSMC probably around 2019, if they aren't delayed, but those aren't as good as Intel 7nm. They are more like Intel's 10nm or slightly better. That's theoretically a ~3x improvement over the 16/14nm nodes, so I'm with you the next consoles certainly won't release before late 2019 at the earliest.

Unless something has changed, as of June this year news from Intel suggested that their 7nm process will arrive late 2018 or 2019. TSMC and Samsung are claiming 2018 for theirs.

But that's normal when it comes to these things. They all always over promise and under deliver. They ALWAYS get delayed for one reason or another and usually by no less than a year or two. So yes, we shouldn't realistically expect any major players till around 2020. By 2018ish I expect that we see them all dabbling in 10nm processes in some shape or form as a stop gap while flashing out their 7nm processes. At least Samsung and Intel seem to be going that route while TSMC says they may but their focus is on maybe even skipping 10nm and go to 7nm.

But yh, this is all why I am convinced that we don't see new consoles before 2019 or even 2020. Once there are confirmed reports of any of the usual suspect chip fabricators (TSMC and Glofo) with market ready 7nm fab lines, then yes, next gen hardware will be no more than 18-24 months away from that day. 

Makes no sense to launch a console a 1-2 years before the tech is ready. The  company would be tied to an old tech model, and the competition would launch a new console in the same year.

Dont u mean 1-2 years after the new rech is ready? csuee thsts what i said .

I mean that Sony can't launch a new console  early because Microsoft or Nintendo would launch something better and cheaper a few years later