http://www.gamedaily.com/articles/news/report-ps3-continues-to-drive-bluray-over-132m-homes-to-own-bluray-players-in-2012/?biz=

According to research from U.K.-based Strategy Analytics, Blu-ray technology will find its way into 29.4 million homes worldwide by the end of this year. The firm noted that Sony's PlayStation 3 will continue to drive adoption of the format until 2009, at which time standalone Blu-ray players are expected to become the dominant segment. What's impressive, however, is the acceleration Strategy Analytics is forecasting for Blu-ray. By 2012, the firm believes adoption will more than quadruple to over 132 million homes, which will own at least one Blu-ray device.

"HD-DVD's withdrawal leaves the way open for Blu-ray to become a major revenue earner for technology vendors and content owners alike," said David Mercer, Principal Analyst. "The 265 million homes that will own an HDTV by 2012, and Hollywood's need for a new growth engine, represent huge incentives for the industry to coordinate marketing activities and demonstrate unified support for the successor to DVD."

The full Strategy Analytics report, titled "Blu-ray Devices: Forecasting Sales and Ownership," predicts that by 2012, annual sales of all BD devices will reach 57.4 million units. Europe is expected to be the largest market for the format with 26.4 million, followed by the U.S. (22.6 million) and Japan (8.4 million).

how does this compare to dvd saturation?

also it point it out to 09, after that are stand alone going ot bee the big dog?

30 Mil this year....I highly doubt it. 130 by 2012, certainly possible depending on cost of goods(HDTVS and players) as well as the "inevitable" digital download movement.

seems about right, nothing to argue with there

30 million? Uh, I doubt it. Standalone player sales have been almost non-existent to this point (at best, they are at the same number as HD-DVD standalones, which sold ~1m WW) and only high-end computers come with BD-ROMS - and even then, many still don't. Other than Sony, most high-end manufacturers are only including BD-ROMs as options, if they include them at all.

That means Sony would have to sell at least 25-26m PS3s by the end of 2008 to meet that 30m number.

Sorry, not gonna happen.

I doubt the 30 million claim too. Sony will be happy if they break 25 million with standalones and the PS3 combined. The PS3 might outperform expectations and standalone player sales might take off too. 27-28 million is the highest it could get, IMO.

They obviously expect the PS3 to have massive sales this year as they claim it is the main driver of adoption. Crazier things have happened :)

I met my Dad for lunch yesterday and we sorta got into an argument because he said he was going to buy a ps3 for a blu-ray player. He was going to get a stand alone blu-ray player, but for the price, he said he would be better off with the added functionality of a ps3--internet browser, hard drive, gaming, etc.

Anyhow, I agreed with him on getting a ps3...what made me mad is that he wants to get one NOW. I'm trying to talk him into waiting until June so he can get a free copy of MGS4 (and give it to me!)

So we argued...lol, he wants to get one now, I want him to wait.

My point is, my Dad was one of the last people in the world that I would expect to buy a ps3, but he's going to because of blu-ray. It will keep growing.

The ps3 is doing it's part to bring in non-gamers (though not nearly to the extent of the Wii).  Many people on AVS bought a ps3 simply because it was the best Blu-Ray player on the market for over a year (and arguably still is), and many have now picked up a game or two here and there when they wouldn't have previously.

It's great that people are picking up PS3s solely for Blu-ray functionality, but does that help Sony much now that the HD format battle is over?

A few things:

1. These early adopters might or might not buy any games.
2. The Blu-ray selection is still, let me put it gently, limited. If blockbusters of yore were being released frequently, Sony would have an easier time selling more movies and make more money.
3. The PS3 is still either sold at a small loss, is breaking even, or is making a small amount. Either way, it's pretty much a stalemate as far as profits are concerned.
4. By the time the movie selection is improved enough to start generating real sales numbers (and profit), standalone players will surely be cheaper than a PS3.
5. If someone is an early adopter/audiophile, they will probably buy another BD player at this point and it will be a standalone unit.

So, Sony used the PS3 to trojan horse the BD format. It worked. Good for them. But unless these people start buying games or loads of movies before standalone players drop below the price of a PS3, Sony either lost money on the PS3 sale or broke even on the deal. It was a ballsy move to win the format war but as far as the PS3 is concerned (and its game selection, third developer support, and extra revenue needed from licensing), this isn't a particularly good situation for Sony to be in.