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Forums - Sony Discussion - Sony expects to Sell 20 million PS4 in current Fiscal Year (Apr 2016 - Mar 2017)

CosmicSex on 24 May 2016
Mazzy said:

Think people are overestimating effect of Neo. I'd say very few consumers would opt to pay $100-200 more for better performance, I think many would just go for the cheaper PS4. If Sony doesn't have a Slim PS4 this year for $299 they're making a big mistake, because that will move units, not so much PSVR or Neo which appeals to hardcore fans and enthusiasts.

We are trying to rationalize how they reach 20 million.   How do you think they plan to acheive this?  It has to be some sort of combination of a price cut, more games, and new tech like PSVR of course.  And the Neo rumor must play some part in this.   And even without it PSVR does in fact work properly on PS4.

How do you see them reaching 20 million?  That is their estimate based on their plans so what do you suppose their plans are?



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Kerotan on 24 May 2016

Sony entering beast mode.

With PSVR, neo a possible $50 cut this is very possible. Could possibly sell that through aswell.



Mazzy on 24 May 2016
CosmicSex said:
Mazzy said:

Think people are overestimating effect of Neo. I'd say very few consumers would opt to pay $100-200 more for better performance, I think many would just go for the cheaper PS4. If Sony doesn't have a Slim PS4 this year for $299 they're making a big mistake, because that will move units, not so much PSVR or Neo which appeals to hardcore fans and enthusiasts.

We are trying to rationalize how they reach 20 million.   How do you think they plan to acheive this?  It has to be some sort of combination of a price cut, more games, and new tech like PSVR of course.  And the Neo rumor must play some part in this.   And even without it PSVR does in fact work properly on PS4.

How do you see them reaching 20 million?  That is their estimate based on their plans so what do you suppose their plans are?

$299 price cut and software. Peak years is usually year 3-5 anyway. Neo and PSVR will contribute of course, but not in any major way imo.



GribbleGrunger on 24 May 2016
Mazzy said:

$299 price cut and software. Peak years is usually year 3-5 anyway. Neo and PSVR will contribute of course, but not in any major way imo.

What do you think WILL contribute to the 20m? Just a price cut and software? I don't think that will do it alone.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


Mazzy on 24 May 2016
GribbleGrunger said:
Mazzy said:

$299 price cut and software. Peak years is usually year 3-5 anyway. Neo and PSVR will contribute of course, but not in any major way imo.

What do you think WILL contribute to the 20m? Just a price cut and software? I don't think that will do it alone.

That would follow the typical sales trajectory of previous gens, take PSVR and Neo out of the equation and PS4 is still on the growth stage of its lifecycle. Price cut and software are what sells consoles, not enthusiast accessories. 



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GribbleGrunger on 24 May 2016
Mazzy said:

That would follow the typical sales trajectory of previous gens, take PSVR and Neo out of the equation and PS4 is still on the growth stage of its lifecycle. Price cut and software are what sells consoles, not enthusiast accessories. 

Yes, but you're assuming the NEO and the PSVR will always remain an enthusiast's accessory. Eventually the NEO will become the defacto device and PSVR will be more widely accepted by the casuals.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


Mazzy on 24 May 2016
GribbleGrunger said:
Mazzy said:

That would follow the typical sales trajectory of previous gens, take PSVR and Neo out of the equation and PS4 is still on the growth stage of its lifecycle. Price cut and software are what sells consoles, not enthusiast accessories. 

Yes, but you're assuming the NEO and the PSVR will always remain an enthusiast's accessory. Eventually the NEO will become the defacto device and PSVR will be more widely accepted by the casuals.

Not a chance in hell if it's more expensive. I think it would have been smarter to have NEO be a minor upgrade and price NEO the same as PS4 and just have it replace it, but that's not the case. Unless something changes along the line, a $100-200 more expensive system will remain an enthusiast product that will have minimal impact on total sales imo. 



GribbleGrunger on 24 May 2016
Mazzy said:

Not a chance in hell if it's more expensive. I think it would have been smarter to have NEO be a minor upgrade and price NEO the same as PS4 and just have it replace it, but that's not the case. Unless something changes along the line, a $100-200 more expensive system will remain an enthusiast product that will have minimal impact on total sales imo. 

Something like:

PS4 $300
PS/4K $400
PS4 $250
PS/4K $350
PS4 $200
PS/4K $300
PS/4K $250
PS/4K $200
Next cycle begins at $300. Let's call that the PS/8K ...

No PS5.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


Mazzy on 25 May 2016
GribbleGrunger said:
Mazzy said:

Not a chance in hell if it's more expensive. I think it would have been smarter to have NEO be a minor upgrade and price NEO the same as PS4 and just have it replace it, but that's not the case. Unless something changes along the line, a $100-200 more expensive system will remain an enthusiast product that will have minimal impact on total sales imo. 

Something like:

PS4 $300
Neo $400
PS4 $250
Neo $350
PS4 $200
Neo $300
Neo $250
Neo $200
Next cycle ...

No PS5.

I'd imagine a NEO-type console would be a mid-gen buffer if it's a success, same exact system but with a minor spec upgrade, then PS5 will be different design, different OS, bigger spec upgrade, new features, maybe new controller, etc.  I do believe end-game is streaming/cloud/digital download box, but not until after PS5 at the earliest. 

Seems like consoles are becoming more PC-like and PC gaming more console-like. 



GribbleGrunger on 25 May 2016
Mazzy said:
GribbleGrunger said:

Something like:

PS4 $300
PS/4K $400
PS4 $250
PS/4K $350
PS4 $200
PS/4K $300
PS/4K $250
PS/4K $200
Next cycle begins at $300. Let's call that the PS/8K ...

No PS5.

I'd imagine a NEO-type console would be a mid-gen buffer if it's a success, same exact system but with a minor spec upgrade, then PS5 will be different design, different OS, bigger spec upgrade, new features, maybe new controller, etc.  I do believe end-game is streaming/cloud/digital download box, but not until after PS5 at the earliest. 

Seems like consoles are becoming more PC-like and PC gaming more console-like. 

Streaming is without doubt the end game. I edited my post for clarity on what I think 'could' happen. I think PS/4K makes sense because it retains the PS4 while similtaniously refering to the resolution of 4K. The backslash then enables Sony to rebrand all subsequent consoles PS (Playstation). No longer 'cycles' but rather 'versions', all of which run the same software.



 

The PS5 Exists.