Honestly unless NX has some insane launch titles, I think VR headset would be the cooler option.

The question becomes how much cheaper will the NX be?

I too can see PS VR hit 10m over its lifetime if it really catches on. However I wouldn´t take the Wii U as any kind of benchmark sales for a home console.

I remember when Move and Kinect prices were announced and figuratively everyone thought Sony had that one in the bag. Yet Kinect Adventures beat even Gran Turismo in its release week. Crazy numbers.

Anyway, I, too, expect NX to do better but wouldn't be too surprised if psvr ends up doing considerably better.

even if NX only has wiiU levels of success (aka failure) i still think it will outsell psvr this holiday.

At the end of this gen, when PS4 is around 120-130m, I wouldnt be surprised if theres more than 20m PS VR sold.

TAG

That being said, I 100% think PSVR will be successful long term. But it's not outselling a newly launching, likely cheaper console at $400 + the $60 PS Camera + a $60 PSVR game + tax at least, and that's assuming no one buys the "optional" $60 PS Move that'll undoubtably be heavily marketed as being essential to the PSVR experience. That's like $600USD if you own a PS4 vs a $300-$400 new console.

People are being extremely bullish about how successful this will be at launch. It's going to be a cripplingly niche product until the price goes way, way down.

It isn´t a good benchmark since I guess the NX will do way better than Wii U (Not an impressive mark to beat though), I am just saying that there is a possibility. But it is highly yunlikely, frankly I hope both succeed, PSVR is bold and innovative and the Wii U well Nintendo might catch a break once in a while. Especially if they make this console worthwhile with a real 3d mario, metroid, F-zero and a few (not one) new major IP's, if Sony can launch multiple big IP's in one gen, than Nintendo should also be able to do that. (Bloodborne, Until Dawn (not all that big), Driveclub, The last Guardian and Horizon Zero Dawn alone this gen confirmed/released)