spemanig said:
What makes you think people are going to care about not streaming at 4K 60fps. People will be fine with 1080p 30fps for 90% of games, and that is an astronomically cheaper and more realistic endevor when given the same parameters.
As for data caps, if there will be anything that will push govenment intervention in ending them, it'll be game streaming. Data doesn't cost more money to maintain the more its used, so data caps are literally an unethical business practice, and it halts technological progression. Once a big financial player comes with demand for a product that needs unlimited data to thrive, data caps will be a thing of the past. That financial player is Sony, and if data caps don't go in like 5 years, there will be lawsuits, and Sony will either win them, or be accomedated, which will pave the way for Gamespy and the like to thrive.
|
Ok. so 4k@60fps is a bit much. But I was just trying to make a point. Even 1080p@30fps or hell 720p@30fps is a huge ask. Come on, think about it.
What are the advantages of making gaming a dopt a stream based distribution model? Lower cost of entry, no need for end user hardware upgrades or purchases and that's basically it.
Now let's look at what that really means. Lower cost of entry will mean a subscription business model. So we are looking at say $20-$30/month. That translates to $240-$360/year. and this is really low balling it. but let's say this means that now everyone can get in on it. Console gamers, PC gamers, mobile gamers.... everyone. Try put a number on that. You're looking at over 300-500M potential gamers easy. When all you need to play the best games possible is a display (be it phone,tablet, monitor or TV) and a controller that number may even be on the low side.
can you imagine the hardware required to drive all that? can you even start to imagine the logistical nightmare it will be? here's an even more important question.....
Who do you think has the money to back all that? and even if someone does, how many companies do you think can fund such a service. Will it be centralized? on what OS will such a service run on. How willing do you think publishers will be to relinquish such power to one platfomr holder? How do they compete with eachother and differentiate themselves?
Game streaming is one of those things that sound good in forums or even on paper but in reality makes zero sense on the scale you are suggesting. I'm not saying it doesn't have its place. but it will never be the primary model of content distribution. If you really think it will, then I don't think you have really given it as much thought as you should.
I see it being nothing more than a feature. You can stream your game from your console or your PC to any connected device you have. It's already starting now. It will also be used to stream older games to the few ppl that may be interested in them instead of tacking on full BC or as a means to generate revenue from those that would rather just pay for a subscription to play a couple of games every now and again.
But it will never replace dedicated in home hardware. And for one major reason. When you buy a PS5/new CPU&GPU in 2020. You would have bought into $400-$1000 tech. $400-$1000 tech then will be infinitely more powerful than the millions of hardware units in servers that anyone will be able to afford to run a streaming service at the time. So dedicated hardware will always remain a generational gap ahead of streaming hardware if we are talking about streaming at the scale you are suggesting. To calrify this point, what I mean is that you or I may afford to spend $400-$1000 on the ahardware in our homes. But someone trying to make servers with 100M of such devices will not invest be able to invest $400-$1000 worth of hardware per unit. And that's just the hardware,we haven't even started talking about the manpower to run such a service.
And another thing you aren't considering.... Right now, if I'm EA. I make 3 major $60 games per year. so I'm making $180/yr from anyone that buys my games. How much do I get from that $240/$360 yearly revenue generated from a subscription service? or do you really think anyone will pay $60 to stream a game???? Especially if it were possible to won the game and own hardware that runs the same game better.
I could go on forever, really. think about it.