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Forums - Nintendo - Nintendo Lowers 2016 financial forecast

OneKartVita said:
Miyamotoo said:

Well they probably going with unifed platform so handheld will be more appeling same like home console.

Offcourse, but they expanding their business.

It may or may not be more appealing.  If the platform is unified that means unlike this gen many Nintendo fans instead of buying 2 Nintendo console (home + handheld)  they might only buy one.  and yes they're expanding,  they recognise the decreasing potential of their dedicated console business.  

Not every Nintendo fan has two devices (just look instal base of Wii U and 3DS), maybe unified platform will has very good integration and people will benefit for having two devices, also unified platform means that handheld and home console will be more attractive, so such a platform could easily attract new customers.



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Miyamotoo said:
OneKartVita said:

The point is the guy that threw that 5BN number out there was wrong.  That's the point.  

 

Nintendo are moving to a new platform but the dedicated handheld space is dying so they could easily drop from ~80m consoles this gen to below 50m. That's not going to leave much potential for big profits especially with the market expected to continue declining.  

 

So going forward there is potential to do very good but also potential to do very bad. 

Well they probably going with unifed platform so handheld will be more appeling same like home console.

Offcourse, but they expanding their business.

 

You mean like how Windows 10 has seen millions of people buying WIndows Phones.....



ZhugeEX said:
Miyamotoo said:

Well they probably going with unifed platform so handheld will be more appeling same like home console.

Offcourse, but they expanding their business.

 

You mean like how Windows 10 has seen millions of people buying WIndows Phones.....

Not exactly same thing, one biggest problems for Nintendo this gen is support of two completely different platforms, they cant anymore effectively support two different platforms, but with unifeld platform handheld and home console can have much better support than this gen. Platform with better support = more attractive platform.



ZhugeEX said:
Miyamotoo said:

Well they probably going with unifed platform so handheld will be more appeling same like home console.

Offcourse, but they expanding their business.

 

You mean like how Windows 10 has seen millions of people buying WIndows Phones.....

That's not the same thing at all. Wii U would be a more attractive purchase if it had Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion, Kid Icarus, Fire Emblem, Monster Hunter, etc. just like 3DS would be a more attractive purchase if it had Splatoon, Mario Maker, Xenoblade X, Pikmin, Bayonetta, Nintendo Land, etc.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
ZhugeEX said:

 

You mean like how Windows 10 has seen millions of people buying WIndows Phones.....

That's not the same thing at all. Wii U would be a more attractive purchase if it had Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion, Kid Icarus, Fire Emblem, Monster Hunter, etc. just like 3DS would be a more attractive purchase if it had Splatoon, Mario Maker, Xenoblade X, Pikmin, Bayonetta, Nintendo Land, etc.

The point is if you can get all those on the one platform why would Nintendo fans buy both?  I'd say about 10m Wii U owners by the end of the gen will also own 3DS. Why would they spend a fortune buying both.  If they put all games on both straight away you're losing sales.  On top of that people are moving away from dedicated handhelds to smartphones so there will be a lot more lost sales.  

 

Bottom line is they won't succeed without 3Rd party support.  Because Nintendo on their own will not grow gen over gen.  They will decrease and their profits from consoles won't increase. 



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OneKartVita said:
zorg1000 said:

That's not the same thing at all. Wii U would be a more attractive purchase if it had Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion, Kid Icarus, Fire Emblem, Monster Hunter, etc. just like 3DS would be a more attractive purchase if it had Splatoon, Mario Maker, Xenoblade X, Pikmin, Bayonetta, Nintendo Land, etc.

The point is if you can get all those on the one platform why would Nintendo fans buy both?  I'd say about 10m Wii U owners by the end of the gen will also own 3DS. Why would they spend a fortune buying both.  If they put all games on both straight away you're losing sales.  On top of that people are moving away from dedicated handhelds to smartphones so there will be a lot more lost sales.  

 

Bottom line is they won't succeed without 3Rd party support.  Because Nintendo on their own will not grow gen over gen.  They will decrease and their profits from consoles won't increase. 

First you assuming that almost every Wii U owner has 3DS also, thats not true because handheld and console gaming are not same, they are very different, so even with same games (but definitely some will be some exclusives) some people will still buy both devices, especially if home console and handheld have heavy integration. Also you talking only about Nintendo fans, but what about people that are not Nintendo fans but with unified platform they consider Nintendo handheld or home console much more attractive than before because they have much higher number of games on single device.

Yes, for bigger mass appealing NX needs 3rd party support.



SpokenTruth said:
elektranine said:

So as long as they make at 1 yen profits each year its all fine? And they already have sold real estate, they sold alot to MS last gen.

Define a lot.

Do you mean a lot as in a high volume of something?  Or a lot as in a single lot like a parking lot or grassy field?  Because the latter is much closer to reality. 

NoA and MS HQs are right next door to each other.  Nintendo sold to MS some unused land that shared the border between them.  It was also damn near a decade ago.

Nintendo shut down their game development operations in Redmond and sold a massive parcel of commercially graded real estate about 1/3 the size of Disneyland. Ya slightly larger than a parking lot. In that decade time they could have built new studios or something. The average new AAA game studio takes over 10 years from concept to first game. Sony just didn't have all these dev teams out of thin air, it takes much time.



OneKartVita said:
zorg1000 said:

That's not the same thing at all. Wii U would be a more attractive purchase if it had Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion, Kid Icarus, Fire Emblem, Monster Hunter, etc. just like 3DS would be a more attractive purchase if it had Splatoon, Mario Maker, Xenoblade X, Pikmin, Bayonetta, Nintendo Land, etc.

The point is if you can get all those on the one platform why would Nintendo fans buy both?  I'd say about 10m Wii U owners by the end of the gen will also own 3DS. Why would they spend a fortune buying both.  If they put all games on both straight away you're losing sales.  On top of that people are moving away from dedicated handhelds to smartphones so there will be a lot more lost sales.  

 

Bottom line is they won't succeed without 3Rd party support.  Because Nintendo on their own will not grow gen over gen.  They will decrease and their profits from consoles won't increase. 

You aren't factoring in people who own neither a 3DS or Wii U that may buy at least one NX sku.

Lets use the 2015 releases as an example, lets say someone wanted to play Monster Hunter 4, Majora's Mask 3D & Happy Home Designer but those 3 games weren't enough for them to buy a 3DS, lets say they are also interested in Splatoon, Super Mario Maker & Xenoblade X but again those 3 games aren't enough to buy a Wii U. Would that person be more likely to purchase a single device that plays all 6 of those games?

Another factor that you aren't considering is the increase of software sales, certain games have been hindered by the fact they are stuck on a platform with a small userbase. Splatoon & Mario Maker are big successes and will each sell 5+ million but what if they had the entire 3DS audience to sell to as well? These games could very well sell over 10 million.

A third major factor is that Nintendo can diversify their lineup by not having to make 2 separate entries of many franchises. Instead of releasing a Mario Kart title for the handheld then 3 years later another Mario Kart for the console, they can release one and support it with DLC then release a new IP 3 years later. This potentially leads to more Splatoon-like scenarios of new, exciting franchise being created which increases the devices appeal.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

ZhugeEX said:
Miyamotoo said:

 

Ofcourse its not, its only gaming division, same goes for Microsoft.

There wasn't always a "Gaming Only" division for Sony and Microsoft. So directly comparing to Nintendo can be misleading for some years. 

 

Also I feel like I'm repeating myself here but this revision HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH NX OR R&D COSTS. 

Here is a breakdown of Nintendo financial performance over the past few years. FY2016 refers to the year ending March 31st 2016. 

 

 

DUNBAN67

  MSFT has never had a gaming only division at least as far as seperating out their numbers-  I don t think Sony has for most of Playstations existence either-    I have never sen a source for the grpah people use to show "profit/loss" for MSFT and Sony gaming but i gurantee they are not fro iether Sony or MSFT and I giarantee they are nowere near acurate.

I have been trying to tell people about how Nintendo s revenue has dropped annualy since 2009 but your graph does a much better job-  It is hard to beleive that Nintendo s profits in 2009 were higher than their REVENUE in the latest year-  They have lost tons of market share and have contracted as a compay in a time in which their industry has grown-  

Nintenod has sacrificed re- investment in their own company for the sake of lower losses and eaking out a small profit  and it has cost them dearly

 



ZhugeEX said:
mjk45 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong doesn't R&D being a liability get put on the books at the time the  expenses occured.

Correct, but Nintendo never mentioned R&D in their revision. They said the exchange rate impact and lower than expected performance of the 3DS was the reason for the decrease. I wouldn't expect Nintendo to suddenly start increasing R&D costs this late into the year, especially when it would have been accounted for in the prior forecast and budgets were set then. 

Thats why I mentioned it.



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