The first question I'd ask is what Microsoft have in place for a successor. It may not be logistically possible for them to ramp up and have something available for 2016 or even 2017 right now.

Let's say they do have the ability the question then is how much of a jump in power are we talking, the price point, and the library it would have. Making a half step seems foolish, but so does making something truly "next gen" that cost $600-700 range. Would they shift over X1 games abandoning the system, make game cross platform, or have droughts to start?

I don't think the Xbox brand has the global influence to make such a power move and expect the industry to move with it. I also doubt Microsoft as a company would be thrilled spending on the research and development for a new system that almost always sees consoles companies dip into the red for a while.

No. It didn't help them with the 360. In the overall picture, with the PS3. They need to focus on thinking up new ideas. That beat out the other two. But also doesn't fester hatred towards the system.

Did it work for the WiiU?

No, it shouldn't. They just need to figure out way to get the world, outside of the USA, to buy their console.

The xb1 isnt doing bad. Its selling like a normal console would. Its just nto sellign as much as ps4.

It never worked for the 360.  What worked for the 360 was the PS3 stubbling out of the gate.  A year head start did little for it.

Also the PS1 never took off until the release of Final Fantasy 7 and the other big titles we all know that followed.  Nice try though.

They might pull another 360, which was 4 years after Xbox 1...so late 2017, though that seems highly unlikely.

But in the case that a smaller miracle happens and 10nm is ready by end of 2016 (which both Samsung and TSMC are promising to deliver), and MS is ready to pay for it, then yeah, they might go berserk early with 8xPS4 level console to force Sony's hand.

Still, I think earliest they might try to do this would be 2018.

IMO MS will wait and see what NX is and how well it does. If NX ends up eating Xb one sales I think MS will hit the refresh button quite soon. If NX doesn't affect Xb one sales I think MS will release the Xb one 2 roughly according to what they would have planned before the 8th gen started.

If NX eats Xb one sales it probably means it will eat PS4 sales, and while Sony can stand to lose a bit of market share to NX I think Sony would move up its release schedule a bit as well, though they will probably be the last to launch a 9th gen console.

I think MS is pivoting back to its core business (PC / Windows) and it sees Xbox as an adjunct. Therefore it doesn;t need Xbox to be a winner so long as it does well enough to help keep Windows dominant in PC.

Not unless the technology is ready for it.
You can make a pre emptive launch "if" the newer and better tech is there, but sony are takeing their sweet time about useing it for a new console.

If you launch preemptive, without the technology being ready for it, it ll either be expensive, or be a side grade, which down the line will bit you in the ass.

It's probably coming late 2017/early 2018 but it won't be pre-emptively, since it most likely won't be the first 9 gen console.