its not possible. it amazes me that people instantly jump to this conclusion when the game got delayed.

Yeah I checked and you are right. The only thing I'd put into question then is how you derived each of the necessary condition as 50% probable.

- NX will release in 2016
Gameboy lasted over 10 years. Gameboy Advance lasted 5 years.
Nintendo DS lasted 7 years. Nintendo 3DS has been out 5 years.
NX could come in the form of a portable with Wii U architecture
Nintendo typically announces their concept 18 months before release
Come holidays, Devs will have had Dev Kits for 18 months

- NX needs to be powerful enough to port Zelda
Iwata stated that NX will absorb Wii U’s architecture 

- Nintendo needs to want Zelda on cross platform release
The only time Zelda did this Nintendo made the largest gain in it’s history.


 That puts the probability up pretty high imo. I'll try to find more and even look at the drawbacks in a bit.

Not sure at this point.

For now, I'll say 50% chance.

I'm pretty sure Nintendo is going to pull a Twilight Princess on this one. There's no point on making it a Wii U exclusive when they need a killer app for NX's launch.

Probably they are still releasing it on Wii U but merely because they need the cash, but it'd be a lost opportunity if they don't release Zelda U on NX.

1. Actually lotta things points on 2016 NX release: no single bigger announcement for Wii U that isn't smaller project, port, or spinoff for around year and half (from E3 2014.). Almost evre report and info is point for 2016 relase and I will mentione you just few of them, Digitems report, Wall Street Journal report and Nomura Securities report. Nintendo president in message to investors for 2016. plans did not mentioned at all WiiU/3DS, but he specifically talked about NX with other staffs Nintendo planned to release in 2016 (mobile games, new services..). 

2. NX will be home console, hybrid or most likely NX handheld and NX home console. Definitely will not be weaker than Wii U so it will run Zelda U.

3. Releasing Zelda U port like NX launch title will be very help NX launch and sales of game it self, it will win-win situation. Zelda U not being Wii U exclusive doesn't matter at all that doesn't affect nothing, its not like they will not relase at all Zelda U on Wii U, especially now when it seems that Nintendo plan with NX is to release one game for multiple devices.

I agree with your reasons why Nintendo will made Zelda U cross release and I will add:

-Much better sales of game if its cross relase.

-Nintendo already done something similar with TP

I dont agree for reasons against:

-Zelda U not being Wii U exclusive doesn't matter at all that doesn't affect nothing, especially now when it seems that Nintendo plan with NX is to release one game for multiple devices.

-Zelda is promised to Wii U owners and they will get Zelda, its not like they will not get at all Zelda U on Wii U. Releasing Zelda U on NX too don't change anything, especially today when we have so many ports.

-Port costs will paid up beacuse of sales of Zelda U on NX, not mention positive financial effects being launche title on NX.

You basically have very strong reasons why Nintendo will port Zelda U to NX and very weak reasons why Nintendo shouldnt do that, and we also already had something similar with TP, so you can't say chances are only 50% that Zelda U will be NX launch title, I would say chances are around 85%.

Also why you think Nintendo still did not proper revile Zelda U, why we still dont have name or real trailer!? I can easily see Nintendo revile Zelda U with real trailer and name on NX at E3 2016. in order to promote new platform.

Like I said multiple times now, imo its nothing like TP. There are to many differences.

I doubt NX will use Power-PC architecture, so a port would be alot more difficult and would need alot more ressources as TP. I doubt the Zelda team is big enough to support 2 completly different plattforms at the same time. Its their biggest project yet, like you already said. Porting such a huge game also to x86 or ARM needs LOTS of ressources and wont be done quick. 

If we are realling aussming a cross release, Zelda Wii U probl was already finished mid 2015 and the last full year of development was spend just to make the port. With Zelda Wii U finished in 2015, it would be their FIRST big zelda title that didnt got delayed. Hope you understand what I mean^^

TP was ported to Wii to show the possibilities of the Wiimote. Gives the player the sword directly in the hand. Zelda WiiU got developed to use the unique Wii U´s technology (gamepad) and show whats possible. They even remastered Windwaker to test it.

If the new mechanics NX comes with (whatever it will be) wont fit to Zelda Wii U and wont make it a new/different or better expierence (Twilight Princess on Wii was at least a different expierience because of controls) im very, very sure we wont see Zelda Wii U on NX. At least not this year.

Im almost 100% sure Nintendo wont port Zelda Wii U to NX just to improve graphics, resolution or framerate. Thats not Nintendos style.

Also I highly doubt they hav enough ressources/want to spend as much ressources on an Zelda Wii U Port for NX to get a crossrelease 2016. Dont forget it, that is probl NOTHING like Twilight Princess. Im almost 100% sure they wont stick to PowerPC and just make a Wii U with new controller.

Like I already said in OP, the 12,5 % results are not 100% accurate.

For each point I took all facts, possibilities, rumours and co into consideration. And then i made a prediction. If we talk about %%% thats always predictions.

But in the end the result wont change much. Even if you say:

2016 Release 40%

NX Wii U sucessor 70%

Nintendo want the port 70%

we will get 19,6 %. Thats still far from a "save cross release" like many are predicting.

100%

People are silly, and like to often predict things that they think "for a fact" will happen. Except then many of them don't, hence them looking fuckin' silly. But hey.

Zelda U does NOT need to come out on NX. At all. Not even as a late port. Not even a tiny bit. Wii U and it's owners deserve an exclusive Zelda game, that is FINALLY also the "MUST HAVE", definitive game for the console, something it has continued to lack in spite of many GOOD (but arguably not AMAZING) games. Every previous Nintendo console has had an "IT" game, the game that was synonymous with the system. Wii U has yet to have that, and long-time Wii U owners especially, deserve to have that, after investing time and money into the console.

And THEN, a few years down the road, we can get a ground up, exclusive Zelda for the NX. What a concept, eh?


As far as I'm concerned, people rooting for NX to be rushed to market in 2016, are rooting for the system to fail. It's just not smart, no matter how you shake it out. And besides, as far as Wii U launch titles go, as far as any of us know, Retro's next game has had PLENTY of time to most likely be an NX launch game, as has the next 3D Mario also had plenty of time in development. That is certainly the case if NX doesn't launch until 2017. And I'd say that an epic 3D Mario, along with a Retro Studios title, along with possibly Pikmin 4 (though that may well be a Wii U game, and perhaps should be), as well as some third party titles....that on it's own ought to be a strong launch, without the need for another Twilight Princess type situation.

With Wii U, part of the reason they ported TP in the first place, was because the motion control concept was so new and unknown, and they had no way of knowing whether or not Wii Sports would be a success, let alone a generation defining phenomenon. So in their eyes, porting TP was the "right thing to do", because otherwise Wii might have had a weak launch. With NX, while we have no idea yet WHAT precisely will be coming out for it, history clearly shows that 3D Mario games (and main Mario titles in general), ALWAYS outsell Zelda games, and are far more often "system sellers". So having a 3D Mario that hopefully backs away from gimmicks, and let's say, gives us some sprawling, massive HD Mushroom Kingdom levels to play around in? That shit is going to sell like hotcakes, and create far more hype than a port of a Wii U game will.

true. It will be funny reviving those threads in some month to proove them all wrong. Already was funny with splatoon sales, now we can do it again :D