Well, I'm going in for a third time tomorrow.

Well, as you can clearly see, TFA is still earning more every week, so I wouldn't count out the possibility of $1 b.

In the end if the movie dos 999.99M dolars we will know it was not your fault that it didnt reach 1 billion hehe. My analyses was basing on the fact its doing Juerassic World numbers now, and 150sh M was what Jurassic World did from this point till the end of its run.

FAs out of the curve weak was the second, where it didnt fall nearly as much as the normal blockbuster movies do, so it was frontloaded with an insane second week, week 3 albeit still way higher than usual was only higher cause of the starting point, the drop was pretty withim norm for a blockbuster movie. So Im assuming FAs number will mimic Jurassic Worls pretty closely from now till it ends its run.

Avatar model doesnt apply for FA, the movie started with an OK box office than kept having OK box offices forever. FA follows a much more standard block buster model, with the difference that its second week had insane hold and it started from a never before seen high. If Fa sundenly starts pulling "The Avatar" it will end well over 1 billion, Avatar made over 400M from this point till the end of its run. I think its much more realistic to expect FA to behave like Jurassic World from here onwards.

Looks like my domestic prediction is going to come true.  The movie really dropped after the 3rd weekend.  Still doing good, though.

DakonBlackblade said:
Avatar model doesnt apply for FA, the movie started with an OK box office than kept having OK box offices forever. FA follows a much more standard block buster model, with the difference that its second week had insane hold and it started from a never before seen high. If Fa sundenly starts pulling "The Avatar" it will end well over 1 billion, Avatar made over 400M from this point till the end of its run.

We'll just have to wait and see, it has only been 3 weeks, so who knows.


Next week shouldn't be any different. TFA is expected to earn around $50M this weekend and around 15-20 Mon-Thur. so it'll follow Avatar yet another week at least.

TFA will gross less than Avatar this week so $50M doesn't seem very feasible.

$32M opening day in China:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2016/01/09/box-office-star-wars-the-force-awakens-scores-huge-32m-opening-day-in-china/

Seems like week four on US/Canada will be around or slighly under 50 million, so it suddenly fell in line with JW. If it keeps following JW, seems like it will be a struggle to 900 million at this point; even following Avatar from its first sub-50 million week barely scrapes 1 billion.

So, probably 900m US/Canada, an unknown value likely between 125-250 million in China, plus 1 billion from the rest of the world. Whether it will surpass Titanic or not it's a toss-up at this point.

Edit - better than expected holds over the weekend means those predictions are a bit moot now, and the movie will reasonably end up an easy 50 million above them.

I just wanted to apologize you and Lich in advance: my best was clearly not good enough.

I'll go again next week...

What are you talking about? :)