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Forums - Gaming - Former Microsoft CTO says VR/AR at least 'a decade' away from being mainstream

Chazore on 07 December 2015

I give it at least a decade for VR to become mainstream and about the same for AR.



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vivster on 07 December 2015
Teeqoz said:
vivster said:

Learn to read sarcasm. Why would someone who has PSVR and Oculus on preorder be jelly?


Because the properly rich people have already wasted their money on an Oculus SDK2 and have the consumer version and PSVR on preorder.

SDK2 is lame. I might be an early adopter but I'm not buying outdated hardware. Unless it's for a console, then I'm all in!



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Teeqoz on 07 December 2015
vivster said:
Teeqoz said:


Because the properly rich people have already wasted their money on an Oculus SDK2 and have the consumer version and PSVR on preorder.

SDK2 is lame. I might be an early adopter but I'm not buying outdated hardware. Unless it's for a console, then I'm all in!


Outdated hardware is the best console hardware <3



Landguy on 07 December 2015

3-5 yrs on VR. 5-6 yrs on AR.

Can't see how anything less than that will happen. Even those numbers could double with ease.



It is near the end of the end....

SvennoJ on 07 December 2015

How did people get so cheap nowadays. Early adopter for an entry price of $350, that's a steal. The first plasma tvs were in the 20k range, first dvd players $1000. The ps3 still sold plenty at $600. And now the possibility of a new experience costing $350 at release means it won't take off for another 10 years...



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Landguy on 07 December 2015
Normchacho said:
nanarchy said:


Current VR and AR is mostly novelty value except at the very high end, especially at the price spectrum consumers are willing to pay. 10 years seems about right for the price point and level of power required to make any consumer device more than a gimmick.


10 years is a lifetime in the tech world. The first iphone came out less than 10 years ago. 

Also remember that not all VR is Oculus or PSVR. VR for mobile devices is likely where most people will get their VR from and mobile devices are getting more powerful all the time.

Iphone analogy isn't comparable.  The iphone replaced multiple items(phone, music player, calculater-think apps, internet access, movie player) that you use every day with one item.  VR enhances something that people use(gaming initially) less often with a different, not necesarily better experience.



It is near the end of the end....

nanarchy on 07 December 2015
SvennoJ said:
How did people get so cheap nowadays. Early adopter for an entry price of $350, that's a steal. The first plasma tvs were in the 20k range, first dvd players $1000. The ps3 still sold plenty at $600. And now the possibility of a new experience costing $350 at release means it won't take off for another 10 years...

The first plasma's, DVD's etc didn't sacrifise tech to enter the consumer market. console and gaming market is extremely price sensitive to anything you want to sell in volume so in order to get those decent prices the quality has been sacrifised.



JRPGfan on 07 December 2015
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
JRPGfan said:

hes wrong about VR.... probably right about AR.

VR could be mainstream within 5years.

I dont see AR being mainstream that soon, its probably 15+ years away.

AR is the practical, none less nerdy, and cheaper version of VR


AR is the more expensive, more demanding (hardware wise) version of VR,

thats mainly going to be a hit when it fit into your smart phone + glasses.  Its most likely not going to happend within the next 15years.

 

VR is the here and now thing. Soon you can litterly buy a VR headset + PS4 and enjoy VR games.



Sprash on 07 December 2015
vivster said:
Normchacho said:


You can preorder PSVR?

Only in your dreams. I've got mine preordered 4 times!

How can you still post if you are already dead? edit: hint: avatar



 

 

Jazz2K on 07 December 2015

The problem with these devices isn't the price or the software.

First, people need to have these giant devices attached to their heads. Not everyone wants to wear these things. Lots of people wear glasses so it'll take some time before people accept this tech or it is adapted to these people.

Motion sickness is real. VR is worst with motion sickness because you are completely isolated from your environment. Mainstream people, especially older people will not jump in this tech if it gives them headache or makes them feel dizzy. This will take some time.

Another problem for it to go mainstream is that these experiences are for one player at a time. Just like these 3D TVs that use 200$ goggles. Yeah for 2 people that's 400$. Now imagine your household needs to buy two headset for one specific game... and the library isn't that furnished yet...

Imo this is more like Kinect all over again than Wii.

Tech heads, hardcore gamers and early adapters will be the ones that will buy these things for the first 5-6 years. Then maybe if the next consoles come with the device we'll see the adoption rate doing better.