You looked aggresive... And the innuendo about my console preferences was a foul dear...

3DS is overtracked too and I have send a message to ioi about that!:P

I'll repeat my reply that I gave in the same question previously:

As you see in my post Psv sales must be at 9.9m sold as of March 31th with 300k on the shelves given the 10.2m shipped as of March 31th, and the fact that psv has sold 4m since its launch till January while here it was at 4.4m, showing that it was overtracked by 400k since 2013 regardless the overtracking after the huge adjustment back in april!

psv was at 10.3m as of March 31th 2015 before the adjustment up here, while it had shipped 10.2m (it could be a little bit less)...

So removing the 400k, we get 9.9m leaving 300k units on the shelves, which is reasonable for a console selling like psv!

The adjustment was 1.3m, and the 400k units surplus from 2013, are summing up 1.7m, 12.6m-1.7= 10.9m but keep in mind that the sales since april are based to the new numbers after the adjustement, when the 20k-30k base became 40k-50k, therefore it might be lower than 10.9m...

This should surprise no one, there's no way the PSV is selling so much in Europe. I wouldn't be surprised if the Wii U already outsold the Vita.

Sony hates PSV so much that they're undertracking it even in their own chartz.

I was just talking about up until December 2014, it seems to be on track with the numbers here.  IF this white paper is correct (which I'll come back to in a minute).

For the record, I agree that based on what we've seen, the adjust up ioi did seems a bit too steep.

Vita is having a poor year in Japan, it's going to be down YoY and the only thing keeping it alive in that market is Minecraft.  A game which is available in Europe too.  Along with a load of bundles aimed at kids (see: any Spanish gaming website).

While I don't necessarily believe that it's the best market outright, you could easily construct an argument showing that, yeah.

My biggest problem with the data here is that it conflicts.  You're saying "IGN has PSP at 82m and CESA white paper has Vita at 9.76m", but those two things conflict, because CESA white paper has PSP at 76.4m.  Either we can believe CESA outright, or we can believe IGN outright, but combined it seems that one of them is wrong.

Like I said earlier, I'm definitely coming around to the idea that the big adjust up was probably too much.

I'm not really seeing a big problem here.

And certainly not one deserving of the hyperbole in the thread title.

So basically the over all message is, VGC shows PSV is and has always been selling like shit everywhere other than Japan, but it turns out PSV has been selling somewhat shittier than VGC has shown. And the only people who care about the difference between actual and estimated are people who want Wii U not to be the shittiest selling hardware of the 8th generation.

So let us say PSV is 600K over tracked as of today, it is ~400K ahead of it's LTD shipment number and we can place 200K on shop shelves. This is a 4.7% error compared to VGC's sell through estimate of 12.6M. Any LTD that is within 5% of actual global sales is quite reasonable IMO. You can't expect VGC to be any more accurate than that because they don't even get real sales data from all countries where hardware is selling. In fact my understanding is that VGC only gets actual sales information from a minority of countries, though I may be wrong.

Let's say VGC is over tracking by 1 million. That's still only an 8% error. Certainly a higher error than desirable but not outrageously so.

These expected error rates (who in their right mind expects VGC to be exact with sell through?) can make things look bad, especially when one console is over tracked and one undertracked, because it makes the relative gap between the consoles quite large compared to reality. But you can't compare reasonable errors for individual consoles and conclude an unacceptable error when combined. Each console estimate is independant of all other estimates.

The thing people find hard to swallow is when VGC sell through > confirmed LTD shipment. But when you get a console that sells as shit as PSV that is a real risk because there are going to be so few units on shop shelves that even an overtrack error of a very acceptably low % will lead to a sell through estimate > LTD shipments. Let's assume there are 200K PSV's on shop shelves. VGC could be over tracking by as little as 1.6% and the VGC estimate would be above the PSV LTD.

Now to the question: SHOULD VGC adjust the PSV down? Well, yes, no matter what % error they are sitting at, they can't credibly sustain a sell through LTD that is higher than the confirmed shipment LTD. They basically need to adjust down to what would be a fairly reasonable number of units in the retail channels. I hope it happens, but they need to remove those sales from specific countries and from specific weeks, they can't just say -11 PSVs from every country for every week from 3 Oct '15 back to 31 Dec '15 (27 Dec chart has PSV at 9.63M which is 130K under the shipped LTD at the time, probably a tad over, but pretty reasonable). That might give you a correct LTD, but you will reduce accuracy in individual countries.

So I don't think people should be too upset about where things are sitting.

It's most likely overtracked by 2 million +. How is that not a big deal for a console that sold so little? There's simply no way this console has been selling 40k units each week. 20k units seems much more like it. According to vgchartz it's selling 20k units in Europe alone, that's nearing 3DS numbers! Yet I have yet to see stores that have a Vita in stocks and never have I seen any sort of advertisement for anything related to the Vita. And I have been to many European countries past few years!

So many time reading that PSV was painfully undertracked and now it turns up to be overtracked xD

So if this is true we can asume that WiiU and PSV sales are probably very similar right now.

Why cant sony just make it easier for us, and give us updates on the PSVITA alone!!!!

Like what Nintendo is doing with the Wii U. Even though its not selling as much as the competitors, they are still updating us with both hardware and software sales.

Quite embarrassing from sony you know.

Just, imagine the articles about Nintendo hiding the sales of wii u... DOOM!

Journalists almost left uninterested by the fact that sony hides psv sales, and Microfost starts doing the same with xb1,  while previously both of them were combining them with the sales of their predecessors!

So much this. It was getting pretty boring and it turns out that it was in fact overtracked! I have to laugh, I can't contain it. :P