Well a ~29K gap between Xb one and PS4 pretty much guarantees that the Halo 5 bundle pre-orders well and truly made the difference between Xb one winning and 2nd place. Out of the 305K Xb one's sold during October I would be surprised if less than 40K of that was pre-October pre-orders. Heck even if only 10% of Xb one sales was pre-orders that still makes up more than the difference between Xb one winning and coming 2nd.
Basically, Amazon correctly reflected the buying patterns of people during October, and it made a pretty reasonable indication of pre-order effect. Even though I would normally not regard Amazon as a good predictor of how close the sales are, it seems like this month Amazon indicated it would be a fairly close month, which it was.
Long may Amazon reign as the best predictor of NPD hardware.
Notable in the software department: Complete failure to predict anything other than Halo 5 number 1.
Here is the NPD top 11 with the corresponding rank of the top sku on Amazon, if it made it into the top 100.
1. Halo 5: Guardians (XBO)
2. NBA 2K16 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3) (Amazon - Xb one #57)
3. Assassin's Creed: Syndicate (PS4, XBO) (Amazon - PS4 #31)
4. Madden NFL 16 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3) (Amazon - PS4 #62)
5. WWE 2K16 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3) (Amazon - PS4 #67)
6. FIFA 16 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3) (Amazon - PS4 #11)
7. Destiny: The Taken King (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3) (Amazon - PS4 #61)
8. Yoshi's Wooly World (NWU) (Amazon - #27)
9. Uncharted: The Nathan Drake Collection (PS4) (Amazon - #20)
10. Rock Band 4 (XBO, PS4) (Amazon - Xb one #74)
11. Guitar Hero Live (Amazon - Not in top 100)
So placed in order of top sku on Amazon we have:
1. Halo 5: Guardians (XBO)
6. FIFA 16 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3) (Amazon - PS4 #11)
9. Uncharted: The Nathan Drake Collection (PS4) (Amazon - #20)
8. Yoshi's Wooly World (NWU) (Amazon - #27)
3. Assassin's Creed: Syndicate (PS4, XBO) (Amazon - PS4 #31)
2. NBA 2K16 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3) (Amazon - Xb one #57)
7. Destiny: The Taken King (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3) (Amazon - PS4 #61)
4. Madden NFL 16 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3) (Amazon - PS4 #62)
5. WWE 2K16 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3) (Amazon - PS4 #67)
10. Rock Band 4 (XBO, PS4) (Amazon - Xb one #74)
11. Guitar Hero Live (Amazon - Not in top 100)
Super Mario Maker ranked higher than all games apart from Halo 5 and Fifa (PS4)
Zelda Triforce Heroes ranked just behind AC:S
Until Dawn ranked higher than the highest sku for all games in the NPD ranked below AC:S on Amazon
Splatoon also appeared ahead of many of the games that got into the NPD top 11, and a handful of other games.
So what have we learned? Ignore software people. Amazon is terrible on Software aside from the highly predictable, which seems to be confined to franchises we know are huge and which have at least one sku in the top 10. One thing Amazon was reasonable at, but not 100% was picking the top sku for the multiplats that appeared in the top 10.