Could be, you never know. 

Yes.

WiiU and 3DS are both 4/5 years old with a trickle of first party games.

2016 will be the presentation and release of Nintendo's NX platform focused on the delivery of games that will work across what we normally perceive as separate platforms; NX handheld, NX console.

The only significant game in your list has history to show it can be supported on two different gen consoles. LoZ will be on WiiU and the NX platform in holiday.

I can't wait.

How do you comment on their launch lineup when you have no clue what it is?

The launch window could easily be Zelda NX, Retro's project (Diddy Kong Racing?), and a new Mario. And Dragon Quest XI from Square-Enix. 

EAD Tokyo is overdue for a new game, the main Mario 3D World team wrapped development in October 2013 ... that means fall 2016 they will have had three years between releases. 

Retro is overdue for a new game, DKC: TF launched in Feb. 2014, it will be almost three years to Nov. 2016. 

Zelda could be and likely is (IMO) being positioned as a dual launch title. Fact is if Nintendo really wants it to, it could be the first Nintendo system with a new Zelda and Mario game within the first 6 months. 

I think it's fairly likely too that the "real" Animal Crossing sequel skipped Wii U because its low sales base would've crippled that game's selling potential. So Nintendo slapped together a quick Animal Crossing party Amiibo cash-in for the Wii U. NX will likely get the "real" next AC, and that is also long overdue ... the AC team has had 4+ years to work on that game. 

2017 for sure, there's no other way.

I think 2016 is actually the more ideal window to launch.

They can bring Legend of Zelda to the NX that way, and it will be a huge boost to the NX launch, just like Twilight Princess was to the Wii.

If they miss that window, then the next Zelda probably isn't coming till 2020, so that will be a looooooooong wait.

For 2016 they could have Zelda and then quickly followed by a new Mario in quick succession. Also whatever Retro's new title could also be in the first six months since they are also due. And then you can have Animal Crossing slide in comfortably 8-10 months post-launch. 

And having Dragon Quest XI for Japan would be big, this is a real DQ game too, not like the online DQX that Wii unfortunately got. And maybe Square-Enix will also be willing to bring Kingdom Hearts III and/or Final Fantasy XV too and those are all due to drop in that 2nd half 2016/1st half 2017 window.

It's fairly obvious they have pulled some punches with the Wii U and are saving those for the NX (ie: "real" Animal Crossing, no second 3D Mario for Wii U), so I'm not worried about their software launch.

So three first party titles (and Metroid wouldn't even be the Retro game as pretty much been stated by Retro themselves here http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2015-06-17-next-proper-metroid-prime-would-likely-now-be-on-nx), one of which is a cross gen and a third party game that will be better on PS4.

If I were to place my bets, it would be Mario whatever, Diddy Kong Racing (a quick and easy game to tide us over), and Zelda Wii U on the NX, which depending on release date a lot of people that are really interested in it would have already played it..... Doesn't really seem like a game changer. 

Zelda NX would launch simultaneously as the Wii U version, or maybe even a little ahead, Nintendo purposely delayed Twilight Princess on the GameCube for this very reason (so the Wii version would be more attractive), don't think they can't do it again. 

No Nintendo console has had a new Mario and Zelda game in its first 6 months, that would be hugely significant. 

I think they could very easily have a window that looks like this ...

Nov-Dec 2016 - Legend of Zelda NX (day and date with Wii U version), Amiibo Universe Hub Title, Mario Maker 2.0, Dragon Quest Builders, Final Fantasy XV

Jan-Mar 2017 - Super Mario NX, Yokai Watch NX, Diddy Kong Racing NX, Pikmin 4 (port)

Apr-June 2017 - Splatoon NX, Dragon Quest XI 

July-Sept 2017 - Paper Mario NX, Hyrule Warriors 2

Oct-Dec - Mario Kart 9, Animal Crossing NX, Monster Hunter 5

People will complain about it now, but I think pulling punches on the Wii U in the long term is the correct move. They are going to be able to have a very strong start to the NX because of it. 

Games like Zelda, Animal Crossing, Paper Mario, Hyrule Warriors 2, etc. that likely would be on Wii U only otherwise will be on NX instead allowing them to stack the deck with their 1st year NX lineup. Wii was the same way ... Twilight Princess, Super Paper Mario, and Fire Emblem were taken from the GameCube.

Ya it's extremely important that Nintendo has a strong lineup in the first 12-18 months for NX. If u look at Nintendo's internal studios, most of them should have a game release in late 2016-2017.

EAD Group No. 1

2005-Nintendogs/Mario Kart DS

2008-Mario Kart Wii

2011-Nintendogs+Cats/Mario Kart 7

2014-Mario Kart 8

This group is due for a game to release sometime in 2017 based off their workrate, perhaps Mario Kart 9 in Spring 2017

EAD Group No. 2

2005/2006-Animal Crossing: Wild World/Wii Sports/Wii Play

2008/2009-Wii Music/Animal Crossing: City Folk/Wii Sports Resort

2012-Animal Crossing: New Leaf/Nintendo Land

2015-Splatoon/Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer

This team releases 2-3 projects roughly every 2.5-3 years, so perhaps a new Animal Crossing for Holiday 2017 along with Splatoon 2 in mid-2018.

EAD Group No. 3

2004-Four Swords Adventures

2006-Twilight Princess

2007-Phantom Hourglass

2009-Spirit Tracks

2011-Skyward Sword

2013-Link Between Worlds

2015-Triforce Heroes

2016-Zelda U

Basically they release a 2D Zelda every 2-3 years along with a 3D Zelda every 5 years, if Zelda U isn't cross-gen than its not likely NX will get a 3D Zelda until 2021, maybe 2020 if we're lucky. We could also see a new 2D Zelda from them either holiday 2017 or 2018.

EAD Group No. 4

2006-New Super Mario Bros.

2009-New Super Mario Bros. Wii/New Play Control Pikmin 1/2

2012-New Super Mario Bros. 2/U

2013-Pikmin 3

2015-Super Mario Maker

It seems 2D Mario now releases every 3 years so a new installment in 2018 seems likely. Supposedly Pikmin 4 is nearing completion so releasing next year for Wii U is likely.

EAD Tokyo

2007-Super Mario Galaxy

2008-New Play Control DK Jungle Beat

2010-Super Mario Galaxy 2

2011-Super Mario 3D Land

2013-Super Mario 3D World

2014-Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker

Console 3D Mario releases about every 3 years with a smaller side project releasing the following year so a new 3D Mario for holiday 2016 with another smaller title in 2017.

Retro Studios

2002-Metroid Prime

2004-Metroid Prime 2

2007-Metorid Prime 3

2010-DKC Returns

2014-DKC Tropical Freeze

Retro releases a new title about every 3 years so a new project in 2017 is likely.

ND Cube

2010-Wii Party

2012-Mario Party 9

2013-Wii Party U/Mario Party: Island Tour

2015-Mario Party 10/Animal Crossing: Amiibo Festival

They release a new game roughly every 1.5-2 years so a new title in 2017 is likely.

Also a new Fire Emblem from Intelligent Systems in 2018, Pokémon Gen 7 from Game Freak for holiday 2017, Smash Bros outsourced for a Holiday 2018 release, Monolith Soft might be able to get a new title out in 2018.

It's not Zelda NX though, it'd be a cross gen. Not to take anything away form LoZ Wii U, but people are going to look at it like  a cross gen title, therefore not really showcasing the NX's power. 

The rest really seem like a huge wish list with a ton of first party they can't really seem to get on the Wii U.  Especially with a merging of the development teams, it seems like this many titles would be a little hard to come by. 

Next the third party support. Yet again it would have it, but it would only take two or three reviews letting everyone know that the DX third party titles are the worst out of the 3 systems you can get them for to kill that hype, and it'd probably go quick.

Add to the fact that any and all media coverage will barage the NX with hate being the first  of the new consoles that can't even compete with last gen (again reminiscant of the Wii U). 

Not to mention Mario (3D World) and Zelda (Windwaker HD) released around a month of each other in Nov 2013 and really didn't get anyone to buy the Wii U. 

It is Zelda NX. 5 million people on Wii bought Twilight Princess, no one really cared that it was on the Gamecube. The NX version will get the bulk of the attention, this is exactly the same thing that happened with TP. 

And honestly Diddy Kong Racing U, while Nintendo hardcore fanboys may complain about not having a Metroid game ... a Diddy Kong kart racer likely is to be a far larger seller than Metroid. I hate to say it, but Nintendo has tried multiple times now to get Metroid to really become a big seller and even on the Wii with a massive user base, Prime 3 only managed an underwhelming 1 million units sold (give or take). 

I don't think the rest is wishful thinking to be honest. 

A new 3D Mario from the EAD Tokyo group is overdue by fall 2016, and with Zelda, Nintendo wouldn't even neccessarily need it right for launch, it could fit right into that cozy post-launch window and completely kill the whole dreaded post-launch lull by purposely holding it off a few months. 

A new Animal Crossing from the EAD group is also long overdue, the last one they really worked on was AC for the 3DS, which by fall 2016 will be four years old. 

Mario Kart 9 for fall 2017 is 3 1/2 years after Mario Kart 8 ... again, this is not even cutting it tight, these are long gaps. 

Also I think an Amiibo Hub title is almost 100% for sure in development at Nintendo now and probably has been for a while. That will be a big launch title too.