Looks like Mario Maker gave the console a 100% boost, which turned out to be better than what I expected!
2013, look out!

A bit less than I expected, but a nice boost nontheless. Might even work like Splatoon and give a smaller long-term boost instead of a big short term boost

That is probably what I am expecting. I think we will see another 20k+ week next week.

That would be nice, but I don't expect it to boost the WiiU as substantially as Splatoon did. A lot of the Mario audience is already on wiiU and Super Mario Maker just doesn't seem to have the same viral kind of hype. Splatoon spread by word of mouth a lot, I don't expect quite the same from Super Mario Maker.

That being said, maybe 15-17k for WiiU next week?

I dont really believe it will uphold the same hype as Splatoon did. But considering the bundle was sold out on amazon I believe we could get similar numbers this week (I mean it's 7 days worth of SMM compared to 3). 

Well, Star Fox just got delayed.
(Which I think is for the best, those graphics could use polishing. They weren't bad, but I've certainly seen better from the Wii U.)

How much might this effect the Wii U's chances at topping 2013?

I don't think it will hurt it much (although I don't think 2015 has a huge chance at topping 2013 regardless).

Star Fox likely would've had a boost around Hyrule Warriors level, maybe a little less if Nintendo didn't market it much. There's also the fact that Wii U games tend to sell by word of mouth in Japan, and if the game ended up being lower quality due to short development time, it would've quickly sank. If anything, this game releasing Q1 in Japan is going to benefit that year more than hinder this year, since Q1 typically isn't very noteworthy for Nintendo titles and this game releasing off the heals of Genei Ibun Roku #FE could provide much-needed momentum. 

As a side note, I think the right bundles/special deals would help the Wii U in Japan more than Star Fox ever could, but we'll see if Nintendo realizes that.

Mario Maker/Splatoon Special Bundle + $50 Price Cut (Or whatever that translates to in Japanese Yen). BOOM, there you go.

Yep. And I think they might do something like this given the PS4's pricecut in Japan.

Doing a heavily-advertised Splatoon bundle at a special price would be both genius and effective.

Yeah, personally people saying Star Fox was Nintendo's center piece this holiday always sounded off to me. Star Fox hasn't been a system seller of any note since 64 really. It just seemed like Nintendo put it there because it at had the most recognizable name. I honestly think a price cut will be more effective overall with shrewd bundling and marketing.