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Forums - Sales Discussion - UPDATE: PS4 doubles xbox by Sept. 27m vs 14m?

AlexJones on 02 February 2015
Puppyroach said:

I myself don't take the AMD news fo absolute truth, but saying 27m is just wishful thinking. I think it sucks that MS are combining shipments, just like Sony did with PS3+PS2, but just going by shipments point toward MS shipping north of 12M. Or do you think 360 hardly dropped anything YOY and absolutely pulverized PS3? Because that would be the only other logical (however unlikely) answer. But I am guessing you don't like that idea either :).


Shipments point towards MS shipping approximately 10m - 10.5m with about 1m in retail and warehouses. 9m sold-through.

It's more likely that AMD really did mean almost 30m shipped to retailers, but quickly realized that meant Xbone sold less than 10m, so they damage-controlled by saying that shipped means "sold-through", knowing that either metric would still be the truth. Both 29m and 27m are "close" to 30m.



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teigaga on 02 February 2015
AlexJones said:
teigaga said:


lool, this. 

Seriously though it not even the PS4 numbers that few me off, its how little you expect the xbox to sell by august.I expect it to average 400k a month, I expect 3m sales in by that period of time at MINIMUM. I expect X1 numbers to be 14m-16m come august. Lots of system sellers arriving before then (and yes, I mean 3rd party). Not crazily unrealistic that PS4 could double it, I just don't see it happening. Recently saw a rumour that Uncharted 4 is due in July, not gonna happen but if it did then I'd be more willing to side with you.


400k a month? Try 200k and that would still be an optimist's guess.

The Xbone sells 100k - 150k/month in the US from Jan - June. For the Xbone to sell 400k/month in the early months means that the US:ROW ratio is less than .6 for the Xbone, which is highly implausible.

Don't understand this sentence to be honest and I'm not using last years numbers for estimation as I expect X1 to be up YOY quite significantly (for very obvious reasons), especially in the spring/summer months.

Just to clarify we're talking WW? Because thats what I'm refering to and to suggest that 200k ww for xbox One is optimistic is not an opinion I can take seriously :(




AlexJones on 02 February 2015
teigaga said:
AlexJones said:


400k a month? Try 200k and that would still be an optimist's guess.

The Xbone sells 100k - 150k/month in the US from Jan - June. For the Xbone to sell 400k/month in the early months means that the US:ROW ratio is less than .6 for the Xbone, which is highly implausible.

Don't understand this sentence to be honest and I'm not using last years numbers for estimation as I expect X1 to be up YOY quite significantly (for very obvious reasons), especially in the spring/summer months.

Just to clarify we're talking WW? Because thats what I'm refering to and to suggest that 200k ww for xbox One is optimistic is not an opinion I can take seriously :(

Last gen, the Xbox 360 sold approximately 60-70% of its total sales in the US.

The Xbox brand is much weaker this gen than last gen. Furthermore, the US is the only country where the Xbone is getting firesale deals, meaning the US to ROW ratio should be much higher than 60% - 70%. If the Xbone sells 120k this NPD, then the Xbone should sel around 20-30k ROW.



teigaga on 02 February 2015
AlexJones said:
teigaga said:

Don't understand this sentence to be honest and I'm not using last years numbers for estimation as I expect X1 to be up YOY quite significantly (for very obvious reasons), especially in the spring/summer months.

Just to clarify we're talking WW? Because thats what I'm refering to and to suggest that 200k ww for xbox One is optimistic is not an opinion I can take seriously :(

Last gen, the Xbox 360 sold approximately 60-70% of its total sales in the US.

The Xbox brand is much weaker this gen than last gen. Furthermore, the US is the only country where the Xbone is getting firesale deals, meaning the US to ROW ratio should be much higher than 60% - 70%. If the Xbone sells 120k this NPD, then the Xbone should sel around 20-30k ROW.

Right, I agree the ratio will remain around 60%. I expect sales to be up alot over last year, so we'll have to wait and see what NPD reports back....



DonFerrari on 02 February 2015

Man what a bold bet. You could either lose your sig for months to years or dominate the whole Xbox fanbase sig.

And funny how people were up in arms about AMD knowing shipments when that would put x1 sellthrough bellow 10M but after "clarification" it could put at 11.5M and is now fine.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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theprof00 on 03 March 2015

double post



theprof00 on 04 March 2015

Updated with a table showing progress.
Obviously not 100% accurate, as they are based on incorrect estimates.

Important thing to note is that for ps4 to be successful in doubling sales, they need to outsell xb1 each week by double, plus 120k or so.
It is also important to note that large weeks will change these requirements completely.

I updated this because the recent sold-through number from Sony brought the difference ratio from 59.7% to 58% in 2 months, which I think is pretty major.



theprof00 on 26 March 2015

table updated.
Missing almost a month of data now, thanks vgc....
but if numbers stay the same, it should be close to 44.5% right now.



kristianity77 on 26 March 2015

Yeah this is a no no for me. You could reasonably expect the PS4 by end of September to be around the 27 million mark. But that would still require the Xbox to sell less than 2 million from March - September (7 months!)

7 months is about 29 weeks or so, 2 million divided by 29 weeks is 69,000 per week. There is no way the Xbox will sell as little as that as an average from here until September. There will be numerous spikes to those sales as big games come out but I can't see the xbox dropping to the required number on any given week between now and then.



PREDICTIONS FOR END OF 2015: (Made Jan 1st 2015)

PS4 - 34M - XB1 - 21m - WII U -12M

theprof00 on 26 March 2015
kristianity77 said:
Yeah this is a no no for me. You could reasonably expect the PS4 by end of September to be around the 27 million mark. But that would still require the Xbox to sell less than 2 million from March - September (7 months!)

7 months is about 29 weeks or so, 2 million divided by 29 weeks is 69,000 per week. There is no way the Xbox will sell as little as that as an average from here until September. There will be numerous spikes to those sales as big games come out but I can't see the xbox dropping to the required number on any given week between now and then.

The reason I picked september is because that's when Halo is coming out. There are no big releases for xb1 until then.

It's currently trending at 80k the past few weeks, but that will start going down shortly.