This is what I've been thinking as well, but I'd love to be surprised. I still think the first half of 2015 could encompass Mario Maker, Yoshi, Splatoon, and perhaps Devil's Third & Mario Party 10 in addition to Kirby. Which is already way more eventful than last year. 

Actually, now that I think about it, XCX might be released before Star Fox. We've seen a lot more of it than SF and it's almost done, so it kinda makes sense for it to be a summer title. Probably July-ish. Star Fox might end up being a holiday title next to Zelda, since it hasn't been shown off hardly at all. Who knows though. Nintendo is so secretive. 

Nintendo seem to release these kind of games around September/October, so I concur with you there, though I am still paranoid about delays.

In addition to Splatoon, isn't Yoshi's Woolly World also supposed to arrive in the first half of the year? 

Man, we really need an update, we've got almost no confirmed release dates whatsoever.

Xenoblade has way more localization work to be done than Star Fox. We've seen more, but it's all been in Japanese. Not even english text yet. Even FFXV has revealed it's dub. I'm not optimisic on an earlier release date.

Man, I forgot about the localization efforts that need to be done. Maybe they've worked on it (for the most part) but are waiting for the Direct to reveal an english trailer? When was the last time we saw footage of it?