Seems to me that front loading is the thing for this generation.
Last gen was extraordinarily long, and the price of entry into this gen is quite low. That means you could probably take the first 2 years of PS360 sales and shove them into year 1 of this generation because those people who bought in 2006/7 for 360 and 2007/8 for PS3 will be more than ready to get into the new gen. If you look at it that way you have ~32M for PS360 launch aligned first 2 years, and we'll be looking at about a similar number for PS4bone at the end of this year. The same is likely to be the case next year, especially with an official PS4 price cut you will have year 3 and 4 buyers from 7th gen hoping into this generation during the course of next year. When we head into year 3 of the PS4bone generation things will probably settle into a comparable sales pattern as year 5 for PS360. After that I expect PS4bone sales to fall away more sharply than they did for PS360 and the industry will be ready to release a new console, assuming streaming hasn't become more mainstream by then, in year 6 of this generation.
I expect Nintendo to launch their next console in year 5 of it's cycle, which means year 4 of the PS4bone cycle. So that will be 2 years ahead instead of 1 year. which might have an interesting effect depending on what Nintendo produces and how the market reacts. Nintendo has the opportunity to introduce some very compelling innovations (I have no idea what they will be) well in advance of when Sony and MS are ready to pull the trigger on their next machines and they could put themselves in a dominant position for the 9th generation. I don't see them going earlier than year 5, because any earlier and their hardware won't be much more powerful than PS4bone if they want to be price competitive. 4 years after PS4bone and there will be hardware notably more powerful available for not much higher price.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
Jimi Hendrix








