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Forums - Sales - Will PS4/XB1 be more front loaded than PS3/360?

Seems to me that front loading is the thing for this generation.

Last gen was extraordinarily long, and the price of entry into this gen is quite low. That means you could probably take the first 2 years of PS360 sales and shove them into year 1 of this generation because those people who bought in 2006/7 for 360 and 2007/8 for PS3 will be more than ready to get into the new gen. If you look at it that way you have ~32M for PS360 launch aligned first 2 years, and we'll be looking at about a similar number for PS4bone at the end of this year. The same is likely to be the case next year, especially with an official PS4 price cut you will have year 3 and 4 buyers from 7th gen hoping into this generation during the course of next year. When we head into year 3 of the PS4bone generation things will probably settle into a comparable sales pattern as year 5 for PS360. After that I expect PS4bone sales to fall away more sharply than they did for PS360 and the industry will be ready to release a new console, assuming streaming hasn't become more mainstream by then, in year 6 of this generation.

I expect Nintendo to launch their next console in year 5 of it's cycle, which means year 4 of the PS4bone cycle. So that will be 2 years ahead instead of 1 year. which might have an interesting effect depending on what Nintendo produces and how the market reacts. Nintendo has the opportunity to introduce some very compelling innovations (I have no idea what they will be) well in advance of when Sony and MS are ready to pull the trigger on their next machines and they could put themselves in a dominant position for the 9th generation. I don't see them going earlier than year 5, because any earlier and their hardware won't be much more powerful than PS4bone if they want to be price competitive. 4 years after PS4bone and there will be hardware notably more powerful available for not much higher price.



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small44 said:

There's no reason why this gen will be shorter then previous one

That's true but AMD and I think some other big people have said that this gen will be 5-6 years long. I think its because these consoles are too weak. 



    

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MoHasanie said:

That's true but AMD and I think some other big people have said that this gen will be 5-6 years long. I think its because these consoles are too weak. 

When did AMD say that ? 

The new HD twins are FAR from weak. Those guys are practically at the teraflop range ... 

I think this gen is going to last for 10 years ...



fatslob-:O said:
MoHasanie said:

That's true but AMD and I think some other big people have said that this gen will be 5-6 years long. I think its because these consoles are too weak. 

When did AMD say that ? 

The new HD twins are FAR from weak. Those guys are practically at the teraflop range ... 

I think this gen is going to last for 10 years ...

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=184342&page=1



    

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MoHasanie said:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=184342&page=1

Whew, it's just the CFO's expectations ... If this was coming from an AMD engineer or a Technical Leader/Director I would take his thoughts on the matter very seriously ... 

Sony and Microsoft are always looking towards the future so them thinking about a new platform this early isn't something new ...



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MoHasanie said:
small44 said:

There's no reason why this gen will be shorter then previous one

That's true but AMD and I think some other big people have said that this gen will be 5-6 years long. I think its because these consoles are too weak. 


Look at how 3rd party refuse to stop cross-gen games because they are not ready to shorter gens.



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m

"are the sales more front loaded?" no, the sales are just leaning more towards one console than before.



I'd say more frontloaded, but also a shorter generation (unless Microsoft and SONY will go all out into Gamestreaming, which I doubt) overall, with the next generation coming 2018 - 2020 (probably 2019).

That said, the PS4 can possibly pass the PS3's mark, but will probably stay behind the Wii's 100 Million. The Xbox ONE will probably only sell half as much Consoles due to lackluster sales outside of North America and UK.

It is quite possible that this gen is a reversal of the last one, with Xbone and PS4 being frontloaded like the Wii and the Wii U being a late bloomer like PS360



Tachikoma said:
"are the sales more front loaded?" no, the sales are just leaning more towards one console than before.

Most accurate conclusion post ...



MoHasanie said:
fatslob-:O said:
MoHasanie said:

That's true but AMD and I think some other big people have said that this gen will be 5-6 years long. I think its because these consoles are too weak. 

When did AMD say that ? 

The new HD twins are FAR from weak. Those guys are practically at the teraflop range ... 

I think this gen is going to last for 10 years ...

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=184342&page=1

And AMD is not  who decide when Sony and Microsoft should release their new consoles



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m