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Forums - Sales Discussion - Black Friday 2014: XBO DEFINITIVE Edition

 

Is Black Friday going to make a difference?

It will help XBO staying ... 9 10.23%
 
It will boost XBO sales a... 14 15.91%
 
It will boost its sales, ... 54 61.36%
 
Won't sell over 100k, Wi... 11 12.50%
 
Total:88

Disclaimer: This is NOT a sales prediction thread.

 

So that time of the year is dangerously approaching. Today I was doing my physical exercises and I was thinking to myself: this may as well be the Definitive time for XBO to make the difference and even maybe get ahead of ps4 in the US in particular. 

Black Fridays are well regarded as the most accurate barometer of sales trends on consoles. I know many people believe that XB360 users in the US are still waiting for a good reason to upgrade, so the Black Friday may be that impulsive factor to many that are still on the fence, and now that the remastered XBO is neck to neck in terms of price with PS4, it can recover that ~1million sales that separate both atm.

What people honestly believe? We all know this industry shifts a lot and even this everlasting sense of PS4 Domination can still change, at least in the US IF the cards are well played. XBO will have tons of games, including 3 major ones everyone is waiting for (COD:AW sells better on XB / Sunset Overdrive / H:MCC).



...Let the Sony Domination continue with the PS4...
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fluky-nintendy said:

Disclaimer: This is NOT a sales prediction thread.

 

So that time of the year is dangerously approaching. Today I was doing my physical exercises and I was thinking to myself: this may as well be the Definitive time for XBO to make the difference and even maybe get ahead of ps4 in the US in particular. 

Black Fridays are well regarded as the most accurate barometer of sales trends on consoles. I know many people believe that XB360 users in the US are still waiting for a good reason to upgrade, so the Black Friday may be that impulsive factor to many that are still on the fence, and now that the remastered XBO is neck to neck in terms of price with PS4, it can recover that ~1million sales that separate both atm.

What people honestly believe? We all know this industry shifts a lot and even this everlasting sense of PS4 Domination can still change, at least in the US IF the cards are well played. XBO will have tons of games, including 3 major ones everyone is waiting for (COD:AW sells better on XB / Sunset Overdrive / H:MCC).


So according to you, come black friday people will for some reason start buying Xbone's by the droves to make up the differences in sales?



If the rumors are true, MS has some really good Black Friday deals planned. I think we could see XB1 bundled with a game for as little as $300 on Black Friday this year. That's bound to be tempting for alot of people, I'm sure alot of Halo fans will be wanting to get XB1 this Holiday season for Halo: MCC and the Halo 5 beta in late December, those Black Friday deals could sell alot of consoles to those people.



Robbie2010 said:
fluky-nintendy said:

including 3 major ones everyone is waiting for (COD:AW sells better on XB / Sunset Overdrive / H:MCC).


So according to you, come black friday people will for some reason start buying Xbone's by the droves to make up the differences in sales?


Not just some silly reason. Many want those games on XB in particular, we all know how well they sold in the past so let's not ignore facts.



...Let the Sony Domination continue with the PS4...
fluky-nintendy said:
Robbie2010 said:
fluky-nintendy said:

including 3 major ones everyone is waiting for (COD:AW sells better on XB / Sunset Overdrive / H:MCC).


So according to you, come black friday people will for some reason start buying Xbone's by the droves to make up the differences in sales?


Not just some silly reason. Many want those games on XB in particular, we all know how well they sold in the past so let's not ignore facts.

Here is a fact for you,  every single major release(Titanfall, FH2, etc) on the Xbone failed to push it ahead of the PS4 globally.  In the U.S. it managed a weekly boost before fizzing out. 



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I think I voted in your poll wrong. Is it for WW or just USA? I voted on the basis that it wouldn't beat PS4 WW but in the USA it could take ahead that week



Whatever MS has Sony will counter with a Brack Friday Bunduru



Nothing to see here, move along

alrightiwill said:
I think I voted in your poll wrong. Is it for WW or just USA? I voted on the basis that it wouldn't beat PS4 WW but in the USA it could take ahead that week


ofc its usa

why schould a black friday thread be about world wide sales?

 

 

 

xb1 will win 2 weeks in november and the whole month

xb1 will lose december



fluky-nintendy said:

Disclaimer: This is NOT a sales prediction thread.

 

So that time of the year is dangerously approaching. Today I was doing my physical exercises and I was thinking to myself: this may as well be the Definitive time for XBO to make the difference and even maybe get ahead of ps4 in the US in particular. 

Black Fridays are well regarded as the most accurate barometer of sales trends on consoles. I know many people believe that XB360 users in the US are still waiting for a good reason to upgrade, so the Black Friday may be that impulsive factor to many that are still on the fence, and now that the remastered XBO is neck to neck in terms of price with PS4, it can recover that ~1million sales that separate both atm.

What people honestly believe? We all know this industry shifts a lot and even this everlasting sense of PS4 Domination can still change, at least in the US IF the cards are well played. XBO will have tons of games, including 3 major ones everyone is waiting for (COD:AW sells better on XB / Sunset Overdrive / H:MCC).

Really? Well regarded by who? Black Friday has pretty much always followed the sales trends not set them. The one time in the whole of the last generation it broke the trend (BF 2009 PS3>360) the trend when back to normal (360>PS3) the very next week and has stayed that way, aside from occasional weeks, ever since. So, in the absence of any major price adjustments the fact of PS4 outselling Xb one 9 weeks out of 10 means BF will be PS4's.

Price has been neck and neck for some time now and Xb one has not taken over 1st place week on week.

360 owners fall into 4 categories: former Xb og owners; former PS2 owners; late gen Wii converts (Kinect factor); new entrants into consoles who only bought 360. And that makes 47 million.

There were 15.8 million Xb og owners in the USA, once can assume almost all of them bought a 360, and you can assume most of them will also buy Xb one.

There were 53.7 million PS2 owners in the USA, only 28 million of those people bought PS3, leaving 25 million people who went somewhere else. Some went Wii, some went 360, some just went away. Most of those who went with a different console last gen are going to go back to PS4. My guess is the majority of the missing PS2 25 million went with 360.

Late gen Wii converts is an unknown quantity. But you can see that pre-Kinect holiday sales are about 1/2 of the post Kinect holiday sales. The 360 baseline went up about 10K in 2011 compared to the previous few years. These people are all about the motion control thing, and with Kinect being severely de-emphasised on Xb one I think these people can be largely thrown in the dustbin in terms of 8th gen sales potential, along with the rest of Wii's 7th gen blue ocean.

New entrants probably represents a small proportion of 360's sales. But they went with 360 first and they likely will remain on Xbox. But they represent the churn in console sales as some non-blue ocean people who bought a console last gen won't buy one this gen, that goes for all consoles.

Personally I think there are about 40 million 360 owners up for grabs in the USA. 15 million are pretty much locked in to Xb one leaving 25 million as a swing market, and most of them are former PS2 owners who are well disposed to PS4. 15 million guaranteed Xb one owners includes everyone who will buy a Halo game on Xb one. Most of them have played all the Halo games already. And most of them won't be buying MCC, or at least they won't buy a Xb one for MCC, they'll buy a Xb one for Halo 5 and probably buy MCC at that time. Along with a much sweeter special edition Halo themed console.

If you consider PS1 had sales of >38 million, it means PS4's likely minimum is about that total. This represents the gen 5 and 6 Playstation base. 28 million stayed with PS last gen. 10 million left and went somewhere else. 10 million are almost certain to come back because they are multi-generation PS owners and PS4 is a very attractive proposition this time around.

In terms of other games. CoD:AW has the exclusive marketing on Xb one. So it should make a big difference on CoD week. But after that it won't make much difference.

Sunset Overdrive. Really? That's what's counted as one of Xb one's big guns this holiday? I sure hope it's a good game because I think Insomniac are a great developer. But this is a new IP, in a genre that receives almost no hype, and a genre that is not big on Xb one, and in terms of Xbox gamers the developer is an unknown quantity, and had a bomb in it's first attempt at a non-R&C game.

So basically there is not much to indicate Xb one will sell significantly higher than PS4. And even if it does there is no evidence to suggest that will represent a shift in the market towards Xb one so that is will overtake PS4 globally in the USA.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

prinz_valium said:
alrightiwill said:
I think I voted in your poll wrong. Is it for WW or just USA? I voted on the basis that it wouldn't beat PS4 WW but in the USA it could take ahead that week


ofc its usa

why schould a black friday thread be about world wide sales?


Because the OP wasn't clear. It could have easily of been a similar thread in the vain of 'China will push WW sales ahead of PS4'