By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming - Destiny 1st Month Annyversary Stats (Avg. 3.2 million players per day)

Vena said:

Psst, statistically, sales are heavily front loaded and drop-off substantially after the first two weeks. The majority who are part of these "averages" had the game within two weeks, the majority of that majority had the game within the first day or two.

Needs to check that (using VGC data and focusing only on current gen).

Destiny Week 1: 2.9m
Destiny Week 2: 0.7m (~75% drop)

CoD Week 1: 1m
CoD Week 2: 0.2m (~80% drop)

Watch Dogs Week 1: 2,7m
Watch Dogs Week 2: 0.4m (~85% drop)

Titanfall Week 1: 0.9m
Titanfall Week 2: 0.2m (~77% drop)

You can choose others games... Destiny drop is better than others big titles... it is sustain good legs and the third week had only 37% drop... great... and now with Holidays coming you will see a grow in sales.



Around the Network
ethomaz said:

Vena said:

Psst, statistically, sales are heavily front loaded and drop-off substantially after the first two weeks. The majority who are part of these "averages" had the game within two weeks, the majority of that majority had the game within the first day or two.

Needs to check that (using VGC data and focusing only on current gen).

Destiny Week 1: 2.9m
Destiny Week 2: 0.7m (~75% drop)

CoD Week 1: 1m
CoD Week 2: 0.2m (~80% drop)

Watch Dogs Week 1: 2,7m
Watch Dogs Week 2: 0.4m (~85% drop)

Titanfall Week 1: 0.9m
Titanfall Week 2: 0.2m (~77% drop)

You can choose others games... Destiny drop is better than others big titles... it is sustain good legs and the third week had only 37% drop... great... and now with Holidays coming you will see a grow in sales.


Your a brave man to sit here and keep defending Destiny. For some reason people love to hate this game and they want to see it fail. I love it, I haven't put so much time into a game since World of Warcraft. 

Every time I think I'm just about done with the game and getting bored I find myself playing another five hours.



Vena said:
Tachikoma said:

psst,  not everyone has owned the game from day one. your calculations assume that,  thus are wrong. 


Psst, statistically, sales are heavily front loaded and drop-off substantially after the first two weeks. The majority who are part of these "averages" had the game within two weeks, the majority of that majority had the game within the first day or two.

your calculations still assume that the maximum amount of users owned the game the entire month,  and that is flat out wrong. 

new players are far more likely to play the game more than old players as time progresses,  people buying in week three for example will log more time than the average user in to their third week of owning the game. 

 

the statistics are correct,  you are wrong. 



Tachikoma said:

your calculations still assume that the maximum amount of users owned the game the entire month,  and that is flat out wrong. 

new players are far more likely to play the game more than old players as time progresses,  people buying in week three for example will log more time than the average user in to their third week of owning the game. 

 

the statistics are correct,  you are wrong. 


Yes, my calculations make an assumption on volume but the fact that the majority, as has already been cordealy demonstrated in this very thread, owned the game on day one and, by approximation, within the first week, the statistics are more than valid in their use here. The bulk of the playerbase, over five million, are in the first day and the remaining can be largely set into the second week with minor trail-off in the following two weeks. So even if newer players log-in more frequently then older ones (arguable, actually...) they are such a statistical minority that they would hardly cause a budge when the data is so front loaded.

The statistics being right or wrong is not the question, it is about their deceptive slant. They are presenting averages, these types of left-bloated statistics should never use averages without medians. In fact the median is the more appropriate number to use here but it would tell a far, far different story I suspect.

Sales are front-loaded, the data is left-biased, and presenting averages is nothing short of bullshit of the highest statistical calibre.



Vena said:

Yes, my calculations make an assumption on volume but the fact that the majority, as has already been cordealy demonstrated in this very thread, owned the game on day one and, by approximation, within the first week, the statistics are more than valid in their use here. The bulk of the playerbase, over five million, are in the first day and the remaining can be largely set into the second week with minor trail-off in the following two weeks. So even if newer players log-in more frequently then older ones (arguable, actually...) they are such a statistical minority that they would hardly cause a budge when the data is so front loaded.

The statistics being right or wrong is not the question, it is about their deceptive slant. They are presenting averages, these types of left-bloated statistics should never use averages without medians. In fact the median is the more appropriate number to use here but it would tell a far, far different story I suspect.

Sales are front-loaded, the data is left-biased, and presenting averages is nothing short of bullshit of the highest statistical calibre.

And calculating an average based on the assumption of all existing players owning the game the full month, when that is clearly wrong is any less bullshit?

Front loaded or not, 33%+ players did not own the game in it's first week, potentially higher depending on what the 4th week sales pan out to be.

Don't call bullshit on statistics by making up bullshit statistics of your own.



Around the Network
Tachikoma said:

And calculating an average based on the assumption of all existing players owning the game the full month, when that is clearly wrong is any less bullshit?

Front loaded or not, 33%+ players did not own the game in it's first week, potentially higher depending on what the 4th week sales pan out to be.

Don't call bullshit on statistics by making up bullshit statistics of your own.


Except I said first two weeks, after which point the "new player count" turns into 9%, and ever moreso irrelevant next week. Oh novos!

The bulk of the sales currently on record, 76% of them, are in the first week's numbers... in four days, not even the first week (and not even counting the ever more front loaded digital sales). By the second week, its even more lopsided. I see no reason to believe that Destiny's current decay isn't going to continue and the final week will be even smaller in both numerics and relevance.

And I didn't make up any "bullshit" statistics. I didn't even MAKE any real statistics (how could I? I have no real numbers, only rough population approximations based on sales), I called bullshit on averages. I said that medians are what you use with skewed data sets. You have yet to say anything to this point or tell me, how, with such an obviously skewed (75% of all relevant data is coming from first week's purchases) data is somehow being properly represented by a textbook case of how not to represent such data.

I will call bullshit on bullshit because its bullshit. You don't use averages with skewed data unless you have nothing to say aside from bullshit. There's nothing to discuss here aside from rabid defense of a game because *reasons*, medians are more representative of this type of data not averages (particularly when presented on their own). That is simple fact.



Vena said:
Tachikoma said:

And calculating an average based on the assumption of all existing players owning the game the full month, when that is clearly wrong is any less bullshit?

Front loaded or not, 33%+ players did not own the game in it's first week, potentially higher depending on what the 4th week sales pan out to be.

Don't call bullshit on statistics by making up bullshit statistics of your own.


Except I said first two weeks, after which point the "new player count" turns into 9%, and ever moreso irrelevant next week. Oh novos!

The bulk of the sales currently on record, 76% of them, are in the first week's numbers... in four days, not even the first week (and not even counting the ever more front loaded digital sales). By the second week, its even more lopsided. I see no reason to believe that Destiny's current decay isn't going to continue and the final week will be even smaller in both numerics and relevance.

And I didn't make up any "bullshit" statistics. I didn't even MAKE any real statistics (how could I? I have no real numbers, only rough population approximations based on sales), I called bullshit on averages. I said that medians are what you use with skewed data sets. You have yet to say anything to this point or tell me, how, with such an obviously skewed (75% of all relevant data is coming from first week's purchases) data is somehow being properly represented by a textbook case of how not to represent such data.

I will call bullshit on bullshit because its bullshit. You don't use averages with skewed data unless you have nothing to say aside from bullshit. There's nothing to discuss here aside from rabid defense of a game because *reasons*, medians are more representative of this type of data not averages (particularly when presented on their own). That is simple fact.


sure, push that agenda till the wheels fall off buddy.



Tachikoma said:

sure, push that agenda till the wheels fall off buddy.


Yes, you got me, its my agenda. My daily life* just cannot go on without lambasting Destiny** and its numbers***! How dare I question questionable**** numbers...*****

 

*Am actually a zombie.

**Never occured in this thread.

***None were given.

****Averages are bullshit without medians with skewed data-sets.

*****Nope.



LudicrousSpeed said:
I don't think anyone would be surprised by these numbers, it's an online only game and sold millions, so millions of people should be playing online.



Youmust have missed all the "proof" that everyone and their mothers traded in their copies. It seems like they somehow they still play the game online after trading in their copies. 



naruball said:
LudicrousSpeed said:
I don't think anyone would be surprised by these numbers, it's an online only game and sold millions, so millions of people should be playing online.



Youmust have missed all the "proof" that everyone and their mothers traded in their copies. It seems like they somehow they still play the game online after trading in their copies. 

If they traded in their copies, someone else can still buy it and play online.