Hi! For the record, this is not a 100 % foolproof method. It is an estimate, and I know that everything isn't the way I say it is, but I believe this is a good way of looking at it.

If you prefer, you can look at it as a calculator of which console has better legs.

This method is really Stever89's, but I'll do the math :P What he says is that in the first 10 weeks, there are mainly hardcores buying it, while later on it is mainly bought by casuals. I'm now breaking this down by console. Pack-ins can not count here, obviously enough. The game has to have been out for about 35 weeks, and my maximum count is 50 weeks, because otherwise there will be too big a difference between the games.

Please pretend that there is " " around hardcore and casual, since I dislike those terms.

How do I get the numbers? The 10 first weeks in others, Japan and North America combined, and then further on using the same method.

Many games are lacking, it could be for the following reasons: On 360, I didn't bother to add all, because there are so many. Because it doesn't add up to a million without European sales (if it lacks them). It hasn't been out long enough.


Wii: 

Game name - sales after 10 weeks - total sales after 50 (or less) weeks - % hardcore and casual.

Mario Party 8* - 2.1M - 4.6M - Hardcore: 45% Casual: 55%
Twilight Princess - 2.3M - 3.8M - Hardcore 60% Casual: 40%
Wario Ware** - 750K - 1.4M - Hardcore 53% Casual 47%
Super Paper Mario - 1.2M - 2.2M - Hardcore: 55% Casual: 45%
Big Brain Academy - 650K - 2M - Hardcore 33% Casual 67%
Resident Evil 4- 650K - 1.6M - Hardcore 40% Casual 60%
Mario Striker: 600K - 1.5M - Hardcore 40% Casual 60%

Total: 8.25M - 17.1M - Hardcore: 48% Casual: 52%


*Has only been out 35-40 weeks
** lacks European data. If game doesn't add up to a million without European data, it is not counted.

Ps3: Reason for very few games: most million sellers haven't been out for long enough

Need for Speed: Carbon** - 170K - 340K - Hardcore 50% Casual 50%
Oblivion**: 200K - 500K - Hardcore: 40% Casual: 60%
Ridge Racer 7** - 200K - 300K - Hardcore: 66% Casual 33%
Call of Duty 3** - 160K - 300K - Hardcore 53% Casual: 47%
Virtua 5** - 180K - 300K - Hardcore 60% Casual 40%

Total - 910K - 1570K - Hardcore: 57% Casual: 43 %

Rest is belove 400K WW, and are too low to be counted.

X360:

Gears - 3.3M - 4.5M - Hardcore 73% Casual 27%
Oblivion** - 720K - 1.1M - Hardcore 65% Casual 35 %
Call of Duty 2** - 750K - 1.2M - Hardcore 62.5% Casual 37.5%
Call of Duty 3** - 900K - 1.2M - Hardcore 75% Casual 25 %
Dead Rising** - 500K - 850K - Hardcore 58% Casual 42 %
Saints Row** - 550 K - - 850K - Hardcore 65% Casual 35 %
NFS Carbon** - 430K - 620K - Hardcore 70% Casual 30 %

Total: 7.15M - 10.3M - Hardcore 72% Casual 28%


If we also look at last gen, we can see that from after 1 year and out, the game sells about half of what it sold from week 10-50 . That means we can say that a leg calculator for Wii would have to be something like this:

Total lifetime sales estimate of the above: 21.525.
Estimate of sales that came after week 10: 13.275

Estimate of % of sales that came after week 10: 61%. Now you would have to see how "casual" the game is, and give or take about 5%. Note: This does not apply to games that leave the normal formula totally, like No More Heroes does.

For Ps3:

Total lifetime sales estimate of the above: 1.9M
Estimate of sales that came after week 10: 990K

Estimate of % of sales that came after week 10: 52%. Here you would also have to give or take 5% depending on "casuality", and it does not apply to games that leave formula totally (here very casual games)

For Xbox 360

Total lifetime sales estimate of the above: 15.025
Estimate of sales that came after week 10: 4.725M

Estimate of % of sales that came after week 10: 32%, give or take 5 % and if it is very casual, more.

To answer (of course optional):

A) Was this helpful?
B) Did you understand it?
C) Do you think the leg calculator might work?
D) Was it stupid of me to add the to answer section?

I don't think this explains how many hardcore or casual gamers have bought a game. I don't believe that 70% of the NFS Carbon players are hardcore. I think this is one of the most popular Casual Racing games of all time.
What it does explain is that EA has heavily advertised this game. The outcome is that many units were sold in the first 10 weeks. The legs (30%) are shorter because of this.

People who buy a console for more than $200 will (overwhelmingly) be conventional gamers who owned a previous generation console or a PC capable of playing videogames. What a lot of people miss is that their image of what is a "Hard-Core" or "Casual" gamer or game is not representative of gamers or their game choices. There seems to be an effort to force the market into parity and only have two groups battling it out, when the market is really much more complicated than that and people's decisions are not that trivial.

A videogame like The Legend of Zelda or Super Mario Galaxy is bought for a ton of reasons:

1. Older gamers buy these games because they have a history with the series, have a connection with the characters, and enjoy the (often) nostalgic gameplay.
2. Younger and new gamers buy these games because they are simple to pick up, not (overly) intimidating and have very accessable gameplay.
3. "Core" gamers buy these games because they're typically one of the best games in the generation, and their gameplay tends to define the genre for years to come.
4. "Casual" gamers buy these games because they're popular and well known games on a platform they already own.

There are dozens of other reasons why someone would choose to play these games, and their reason to play it will (often) define what type of gamer they are.

Overall, the best selling games tend to be "Crossover" games because they appeal to a broader demographic than most games and can thus pull in more gamers. Certainly, there are very specialized games which do alright for themselves but they're a very small minority of popular games.

@Happy

Wow, I fit into all of the 4 categories :P

I don't really see the connection between what you wrote and what I wrote, but that might just be me.

I'm deeply skeptical about the claim that "good legs = casual". It's true that games with mostly hardcore appeal generally have huge opening weeks and short legs, but there are too many other factors involved to make a simplification like that.

The Wii, for example, has the quickest expanding user base in the history of gaming, but library of games is still suffering from how the third parties initially underestimated it, and first party resources are limited. New Wii owners are thus buying more "old" games than 360/PS3 owners, and giving lots of games the kinds of legs they wouldn't otherwise have any chance of achieving.

I do appreciate the leg-calculations you've done, though. Thanks a bunch.

Do we really think that 60% of resident evil 4 buyers are casuals???

Face it, RE4 is relatively easy, lots of ammo (the computer automatically adjusts what you find based on what you use... making it very friendly for casuals, while still making hard core gamers think ammo is tight, but not too tight). It's more an interactive story played through as a relatively easy FPS, very casual..

Nothing is perfect at measuring hard cord vs casual, but overall +1 for the article. As Parokki mentions, the supply issues of the wii are skewing the results in favor of casual compared to other platforms.

You're right Parokki, there might have been too many different factors for this to be precise.

It's too bad that we don't have enough data on weekly sales for PS2 games. Those would be interesting to look at.

This is the reason I usually say that legs (good legs or bad legs) are "casual" or mainstream users buying the game. They walk into a gaming store, ask for something that is good, and get a well known game. Thus better games usually have better legs. Or they go into Wal-Mart or a similar store and look at the games in the display cases, see something that looks good, and they get it.

Thanks for putting it together. Doktor85 has a point though with advertising, so of course this formula of using the first 10 weeks as the hardcore users and everything after as mainstream users has it's shortcomings, and 360 games are usually very heavily advertised, so it's more likely that more sales will come during the first 10 weeks compared to other games... and it shows with the 360's high "hardcore-ness." 

It's an interesting exercise, but far too imprecise a calculation to be worth much. But I do appreciate the thread. Results are about what you'd expect with Wii having mostly casual and 360 predominately hardcore.

RE4 having 60% casual seemed odd, but I agree with jlauro, and I own it, and I'm pretty casual so it's probably right. Having 3 movies out doesn't hurt either.