Guess it's time I gave some updated predictions for leading into the holiday season. Always talking about these kinda sales in the game's specific regions but we'll make it official. Do for gold and platinum again but this time I'll do a special holiday one as well where I'll do predictions of Wii games releasing in November and December and see where I think there sales will be by the end of the year and ultimately how long til gold or platinum. This will be a work in progress but I'll see if I can get some now.

Does anyone know if Nintendo has said anything about lowering the prices of some of these games? I've been waiting for Excite Truck to go down. I figured it would have a while ago.

First I'd like to do just a little overview as it has been 3 months since I did this.  So go over how the progress has gone in comparison to my predictions.

First, deal with teh games I deemed dead in the water or no chance at getting platinum.  These games were Tiger Woods PGA Tour 07, Madden 08, and WWE SvR 2008.  Since I made my prediction sales of the 3 in the last 3 months have been as follows: 3 months sales/LTD

TWPT07- 10,000, 800,000

Madden 08- 60,000, 820,000

WWE SvR 2008- 50,000/770,000

No matter how ya slice it, in 12 weeks they've averaged, less than 1k, 5k, and 4k respectively.  If they were to stay on this trend for the remaining 10 weeks with some respectful increases then they'd be able to increase their sales by 5k, 30k, and 25k but with all of them having their predecessors out they have no shot of selling enough in 2009 to really make that platinum number.  Truly still dead in the water and thus time around will be left out of my predictions for said reasoning.

Now there's a few games that I predicted weren't dead in the water that I was clearly wrong on haha.  Noteably The Simpsons Game.  3 months ago it was at 750,000 and now it is only at 780,000.  800,000 tops by the end of the year with no shot of sustainable legs in 2009.  Dead in the water. 

Now aside from that there are some games that I'll put into my prediction that I had deemed dead in the water before by not evne giving them predictions or simply didn't think they had much of a shot.  Such games include noteably Deca Sports which I didn't give much of a shot and it proved me wrong, Pro Evolution Soccer 2008, and Sega Superstarts Tennis.

Finally some games I will not be doing again simply on the basis that my prediction has not changed mainly because my opinions can't change because others data has not changed.  This includes Tigers Woods PGA Tour 08, Super Monkey Ball Banana Blitz, Excite Truck, Cooking Mama: Cook Off, Dragon Quest Swords, and DDR Hottest Party.  But it's good because it opens up room for others and keeps me from repeating myself too much.

Unfortunately Ninty has not commented on releasing "player's choice" versions of their games although it seems like something they need to do for such like Excite Truck.  However I think 2009 is probably when this will start with an inevitable Wii pricedrop and pricedrop of some of its games to go with it.

Alright same format as last time but won't be doing shipment probabilities but focus more on the sales probabilties and estimated time it'll hit that. Going down the list in their sales order:

Deca Sports- The title is currently at 890,000 and has since sold 360,000 since my last prediction and received about 30,000 in extra data from then which of course affected it's weekly sales. So of course I have an excuse for being so far off haha. Title is currently selling 25k a week and similar to its weekly basis 3 months ago now with updates which shows it is persistent and surviving the onslaught of new titles. Considering all it needs is 110,000 and selling 25k a week which is strong going into the holidays then this will absolutely go platinum which I'm sure most could figure out anyways without me. Already platinum in shipment as confirmed by Hudson and will approximately hit the platinum number on the week ending Nov 21, 2008.

Probability of Platinum in Sales- 100%

Naruto: Clash of the Ninja Revolution- currently at 820,000 and the "Japanese version" will not be added. Although IGN has the game listed as the same one it is apparently quite different which still shouldn't make a difference but I don't make the rules around here. Anyways given this, it has sold 110,000 units in the past 3 months and has stayed at at a pretty consistent 8k-10k a week. Last week it sold approximately 8k, despite the sequel being released in America. Though give or take it'll sell by the end of the year another 100,000 putting it at 920,000 and then it's really up to how it survives in E/O considering its hard to think that in America it can survive with its sequel. However I'm going to say it's probably going to make it given Wii software in the holidays might mean more than 100k and take that in E/O for the long run and make platinum approximately in March or April of 2009.

Probability of Platinum in Sales- 75%

Lego Indiana Jones: The Original Adventures- currently at 790,000 and has sold 280,000 in this time period. The title was not affected by Lego Batman although I mentioned it just in case as it was a probability. Currently the title is selling about 20k-25k a week although I feel we've massively undertracked sales of this game in America but despite that it'd take a lot to stop this title from going platinum. If current rates stayed the same it'd go platinum in about 10 weeks but given holidays I'm going to lower that to about 7 weeks or the week ending December 13, 2008.

Probability of Platinum in Sales- 100%

FIFA 08- currently at 780,000 and has since sold 100,000 units. This was one of those games I skipped over last time as I thought was pretty much dead in the water and that hasn't changed but it has seen decent increases to give it 15 minutes of fame. Currently the title is still selling about 6k-8k just like it was 3 months ago which is quite impressive especially considering its successor has just released in E/O and releasing this week in America. Despite all this it's doubtful that it'll be able to keep these rates up for much longer. I would say that it'll get to about 850,000 to 900,000 before it becomes negligble on the charts meaning its possible it made it in shipments but more than likely never in sales.

Probability of Platinum in Sales- 10%

Pro Evolution Soccer 2008- currently at 710,000 and has since sold 110,000 units. Another title that I deemed dead in the water that I'm having to bring back from the grave. Mainly because the successor isn't releasing until after the holiday season. Given that sales have already started to go on the upward trail in its only selling region left, E/O which is now in 5 digits again. If this trend continues we are looking at about 850,000 units sold at the end of the year which gives it a shot to sell enough before its successor comes out in early 2009. If it stays at that 10k pace after holiday season it's got a definite chance. Of course this is a lot of ifs which is why I won't give a finite date and just a probability.

Probability of Platinum in Sales- 50%

The House of Dead 2 & 3 Return- currently at 680,000 and has since sold 160,000 units. I really didn't give this much creedence early on but it's shown it can last. Currently at about 10k-15k a week and going decently strong into the holidays. More than likely it'll leave the holidays at about 850,000 which gives it plent of time to sell another 150k before HoD: Overkill comes out. However once again its hard to say it'll keep up its legs in the new year but I'm going to say it will. I think it'll go platinum some time in May of 2009.

Probability of Platinum in Sales- 80%

We Ski- currently at 680,000 and has since sold 250,000 units. A title that last time appeared in the gold status and is now on its way to a million. Like Deca Sports, there isn't much to stop it. 3 months ago it was selling on average 30k a week while now it is selling around 20k-25k a week to show how well its lasted. It is noteable that in Japan it's receiving its sequel later this year but not releasing yet in the regions its still kicking in. Will probably sell another about 250k by the end of the year leaving and easy 70,000 in 2009 which it should achieve fairly easy. Approximately will go platinum in early March of 2008.

Probability of Platinum in Sales- 95%

Sega Superstars Tennis- currently at 670,000 and has since sold 140,000 units. Another title that I didn't give much creedence too but I've certainly misjudged how Wii titles start increasing before the holidays. Is now currently selling around 10-12k a week again and rising. Will probably get to around 820,000 by the end the year and will leave an open 2009 once again to achieve this status. However I'm doubtful of how well this will sell outside of the holiday season. I have a feeling that this title might fall just short of the mark and sales become negligible at around 950,000. But it does have a shot and if it were to happen we are talking around summer 2009.

Probability of Platinum in Sales- 25%

Big Beach Sports- currently at 630,000 and has since sold 420,000 units. A surprise title, to me at least, along with Deca Sports. However sales are only coming out of E/O that are worth nothing and this due to what I've heard is a bundle of the game with the console. Of course that sounds great but bundles come and go which is good and bad for it. Currently the title is selling about 20k a week and by the end of the year will be around 850,000. Of course it's sole ability to get to platinum will depend on the use of the bundle during the holidays and after. However, I give it a decent shot and if it does make it, it will be around March of 2008.

Probability of Platinum in Sales- 60%

Star Wars: The Force Unleashed- currently at 610,000 and was not out when I made the first projections which is good for its chances haha. Currently selling about 40k a week which means this title will go platinum theoretically on the last week of the year but given holiday sales I'm going to say 7 weeks from now or week ending December 13, 2008.

Probability of Platinum in Sales- 100%

Boom Blox- currently at 540,000 and has since sold 190,000. Having legs a lot better than I thought which once again goes to where I underestimated the longetivity of some Wii games despite new releases. Currently selling, however, 10k a week which shows that sales have not been as sustinable in a weekly average as others. Game will end the holiday season at about 700,000 and then it has to sell a hell of a lot in 2009 to make it. Only way I can see it happen is that if in holidays 08 it gets increased advertising and comes out a bigger brand into 09 which will help it sustain sales and have it go platinum in about fall of 2009. Otherwise this title will die off to about the 850k-950k which I shall call the sad range considering how close these titles are haha.

Probability of Platinum in Sales- 35%

Rock Band- currently at 540,000 and had since sold 270,000. Showing sustainable legs as it has not dropped below 10k on a weekly basis however it's edging closer. Although this is a big holiday title it has the issue of Rock Band 2 being out for the later part of the holiday season. However it is probable that the title will be able to coexist with its successor. We are looking at about 700,000 by the end of the year and it'll depend on if it gets more increases than I'm giving it in the holidays and how it coexists afterwards with RB2. Also it'll have about an extra 50,000 whenever Others data is added. Despite all this, I don't think it'll be able to make it, however, and end at about 850,000 LT.

Probability of Platinum in Sales- 25%

Alright any other titles that are already gold that I didn't include then I either don't have others data to give an answer or its dead in the water. I'll do the gold titles tomorrow along with releasing titles. However if the title going gold is apparent it'll go such as Super Mario Sluggers for example then I'll give it's platinum research as well.

Should a Diamond sellers list be added? Galaxy, Wii Fit, Brawl, MK Wii, etc. are all shooting for 10 million.

Maybe.

Alright time for gold. Just some brief overview first. This gold data is mainly going to be games that have released sooner rather than later.

Want to comment on Donkey Kong: Barrel Blash, Ghost Squad, and Zack and Wiki. All 3 I didn't give much of a chance to go gold however they've done a hell of a lot better than I thought in the last 3 months which seems to be my usual issue on these predictions. Constantly under predict for Wii games. Currently they are at 480k, 470k, and 440k. In the 3 months they've sold 40k, 50k, and 40k respectively which is pretty good for titles I deemed essentially dead in the water. Current weekly sales are 4k, 5k, and 3.5k. The first 2 will go gold within the next 4-6 weeks while Zack and Wiki will likely go over early next year. So my chances I gave these were just bad haha so just wanted to make those corrections.

Now any other title I did early on that I'm not including here I either still agree with my predictions or once again no added others data to really make anything on them. So I'll start it up in the next post.

Well I was writing the one for gold but I found myself too many times putting 100% for gold and then going into platinum sales probability which really doesn't help the cause too much. So not going to go do gold this time because it just not serving much of a point. Most of the titles that aren't gold anyways are because of no others sales or going to make it within the year. So next step will be on predicting games that are releasing in the next 2 months on chances at platinum and then I'll do a milestones one as well.

Mario Super Sluggers and Guitar Hero: Aerosmith went gold this week.

Deca Sport is like 3 weeks away from being the 30th Platinum seller.