update:

Pokemon should exit the list finally next week..

sega superstar tennis went gold! we'll see how it does in a few months, and I'll probably add it to the other list.

a bunch of gold contenders added

Game Party has gone Platinum already, Pokemon should do it when American numbers are released.

Please take a look at Naruto: Clash of the Ninja Revolution the game has sold 690k units in America + Europe and 100k in Japan alone, but they are listed as 2 different games. The game is at 0.8 million so far.

i hope zack and wiki can make it to gold ,really good thread

Pokemon went platinum.

High School Musical: Sing it! is 30k away from the million.
Smarty Pants is 60k away.

Lego Indy went gold this week.

Deca Sporta and Tiger Woods 08 went also gold.

Alright I'll give ya the comprehensive part.  I've essentially been doing it anyways in the individual game pages.  Note all these probabilities and guestimates are considering that the current numbers are indeed correct and within the ball park. 

First Platinum Oppotunists:

High School Musical Sing It- 30k away and selling 10k a week in America on average right now.  Obviously will make it in 3-4 weeks considering some possible dropoffs.

Platinum Shipment Probability- 100%(there already)
Platinum Sales Probability- 100%(unless a nuke hits the Americas it'll make it)

Smartypants- Currently at the rounded 920,000.  Selling about 9k a week meaning every other week it'll go up 10k.  That's due to alternating 5k weeks in US and E/O just slightly behind it.  Should make platinum within 2 months. 

Platinum Shipment Probability- 100%(already there)

Platinum Sales Probability- 100%

Cooking Mama: Cook Off- Title is currently at the rounded 830,000.  Pretty much dead in the water in the Americas.  However E/O sales were last updated over a year ago.  Title showed up in UK charts numerous times thereafter.  Right now E/O sales are at 260,000.  More than likely with steady sales and it being in the Holidays it would be at about 380,000 right now in E/O.  Meaning current sales are at 950,000.  Moving at a possible 5k a week it would make it in 10 weeks however that is simply my discretion.

Platinum Shipment Probability- 100%(already there)

Platinum Sales Probability- 75%

Tiger Woods PGA Tour 07- Current sales are 790,000.  Dead in the water in America.  Sales in E/O haven't been updated in a while.  Currently given they are at 330,000 in E/O with updates for the time its missed and given it's "sequel" released I'd say its at about 400,000 there now.  Meaning current sales would be at about 860,000 most likely dead in the water in E/O.  Selling at about 1.5k-2k a week this title has little chances of going platinum considering 08 is out and 09 is coming.

Platinum Shipment Probability- 40%(probably at about 925,000 now and will stay like that)

Platinum Sales Probability-10%(probably end at about 880,000)

Madden NFL 08- Currently at 760,000 units.  Selling on average 10k a week.  If untouched would make it in 20 weeks because of holidays.  However Madden 09 releases in a month and will make sales of this goe below the 5k mark until it becomes dead in the water.  But should be able to rack up another 100k before it's death. 

Platinum Shipment Probability- 20%(probably at about 850,000 and will end at about 875,000)

Platinum Sales Probability- 5%(probably end at about 870,000)

The Simpsons Game- Currently at 750,000.  Selling about 5k a week in the Americas and 3k a week in E/O.  If this can be sustained til this holiday season it might be able to pull out a 20k wee WW giving it the push it needs.  However it would need to hold this 7k-8k for 15 weeks which might show drops in sales as new Wii games come out and overshadow it.

Platinum Shipment Probability- 50%(more than likely at 800,000 right now)

Platinum Sales Probability- 35%

WWE Smackdown vs Raw 2008- Currently at 720,000.  Selling on average 4k a week WW.  Essentially dead in the water.  Will become even more dead after the 09 edition releases.  Possibility of us undertracking American sales is probable but increases would be no greater than 100,000 and still wouldn't have enough steam considering when 09 edition releases.

Platinum Shipment Probability- 5%(will end at about 800,000)

Platinum Sales Probability- 1%

Naruto: Clash of the Ninja Revolution- Game is currently at 810,000 when Japan sales are added.  Title is dead in the water in Japan and will stay at 100k.  Title is currently selling about 8k in E/O and 5k in Americas.  Meaning in E/O 2 of ever 3 weeks it will go up if sustained and in America it'll go up every other week.  But essentially 30k up in 3 week intervals.  Would need to do that for 19 weeks to go platinum.  However sustaining in America will be a little harder considering it's sequel releasing later this year.  However if in E/O it can be sustained which more than likely won't get the release this year, and then get into the holidays platinum chances will be high. 

Platinum Shipment Probability- 80%(should have too many problems considering its probably at about 900k now)

Platinum Sales Probability- 60%(title has show sustainable legs thus far so has good chances)

Now titles under 700k.  I'll only do the ones that I see reasonable cause and then I'll mention the rest as simply dead in the water.

Dragon Quest Swords: The Masked Queen and the Tower of Swords- Currently at 680,000.  Dead in the water in Japan and selling 3k a week in Americas.  Meaning up until holidays will probably get to about 720,000 in these 2 territories.  However title has released in E/O and no sales have been recorded.  More than likely about 200k shipped and about 125k-150k sold thus far.  Given that currently sales are at about 810,000.  Shipments about 900,000.  Up until front of holidays sales will probably be at about 880,000.  Shipments should have no problem going platinum however sales are a little more slim.  It's undecided how much this will sell in the holidays considering its not that much of a holiday title. 

Platinum Shipment Probability- 75%

Platinum Sales Probability- 30%(will probably finish at about 940,000)

Excite Truck- Title is currently at 620,000.  Dead in the water in both Japan and Americas. However being a racer sales in Europe are only shown at 140,000.  Hasn't been updated in awhile.  Many suggest that this title has to have sold better in E/O.  Unfortunately theer is nothing to suggest that.  More than likely updating E/O sales would put it at about 300,000 and dead in the water like the other territories.  That would put the title at 780,000 with a slow progressive move to 800,000 before holidays.  If title can get a pricedrop and new advertising because of it, then chances are a lot greater for it to go platinum. 

Platinum Shipment Probability- 50%

Platinum Sales Probability- 10%

Tiger Woods PGA Tour 08- Currently at 590,000.  Currently selling a steady 10k in America but in 3 weeks it's sequel will be on the market as well which will cut sales of this title in the territory by a lot.  Will probably fall to under 5k.  However should be able to squeeze out another 50k before the year ends at least.  Putting this at about 640k.  However the title has no Japanese data or E/O data.  The title probably at least got 10k out of Japan.  Thus now 650k.  Now in E/O the title was in UK charts for a decent amount of time.  And still has been recently.  It's safe to say this title has at least 300k in E/O and that's probably an underestimate.  I would say about 400k in E/O and still going about 5k a week.  Thus currently the title is at 990,000.

Platinum Shipment Probability- 100%(already there)

Platinum Sales Probability- 100%(will be there with next week sales if E/O was updated)

Dance Dance Revolution: Hottest Party- Title is currently at 570,000.  Selling about 9k in Americas weekly.  However it's sequel is releasing later this year which will probably affect sales of this title.  Should though by the end of the year to be at 650k in the Americas.  However this title has no Japanese or E/O sales.  Safe to say that they probably did about 30k in Japan.  Wouled put sales at 600k.  And then at least 250k in E/O.  Now at 850k.  Now that extra 80k for the rest of the year in Americas at 930k.  It would all depend on how its currently selling in E/O which is difficult.  However I'd say this title has a good chance of going platinum given all mine being rough estimates.

Platinum Shipment Probability- 80%

Platinum Sales Probability- 60%

Super Monkey Ball: Banana Blitz- Currently at 570,000.  Dead in the water in the Americas and Japan.  However there are no E/O sales.  Game was a launch title that stayed in the charts for a long time.  Including being in there recently.  More than likely sales in E/O are about about 450k.  Title is already platinum.

Platinum Shipment Probability- 100%(already there and has been for awhile)

Platinum Sales Probability- 100%(already there and probably has been for awhile)

Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn- Currently at 520,000.  Dead in Japan and America.  Once again no E/O sales.  Given the title probably sold about 200k.  Making in 720,000 however title is probably close to dead in the water.  Like Excite Truck would need a pricedrop and advertising showing it.  If not title will die at around 780,000-800,000. 

Platinum Shipment Probability- 50%

Platinum Sales Probability- 5%

House of Dead 2 & 3 Return- Curently at 520,000.  Selling about 15k WW 7k in Americas and E/O.  However title seems to be fading.  This kinda title would sell best in the holidays but its doubtful it can last that far.  But if it can get another 200k before holidays roll around then this title will get another 150k thereabouts out of holidays.  That being the best case scenario would put it at 880k with 120k left in sales and 50k in shipments.  Half a year of 5k WW then would push it over.

Platinum Shipment Probability- 65%

Platinum Sales Probability- 30%

Lego Indiana Jones- Currently at 510,000.  Title selling about 20k a week in Americas and 10k a week in E/O.  However falling fast in E/O.  I personally think our American sales are wrong for the title considering it was the best selling in NPD and yet it shows it falling behind in the Americas in legs and sales.  However there isn't too much to stop this title from going platinum.  Will last at this 30k WW range for a good while til it levels out to about 20k WW and then it'll hit the holidays.  It will last til the holidays and might get boost from Lego Batman before that.  Only thing that could stop this title is if it is overshadowed by other products but given Wii's massive Mainstream userbase this is doubtful.

Platinum Shipment Probability- 90%

Platinum Sales Probability- 80%

Deca Sports- Currently at 500,000.  Selling about 8k a week in Americas and 10k a week in Europe.  Title is starting to fade.  Needs a holiday season desperately.  However it's doubtful it can last til the holiday seasons.  But it seems the title has built up enough brand to hold it til then.  If it explodes during holiday season then like Game Party in Americas it'll have legs afterwards.  Thus giving it a much better chance. 

Platinum Shipment Probability- 75%

Platinum Sales Probability- 45%

I'll do gold later on where I'll also include if those gold titles have platinum chances.  And then at a later time I'll do yet to release titles chances.

Nice work Zucas, I did not realize Tiger Woods 08 was doing as well as it is.

Lego will reach 1 million with ease. I think it will top out at around 1.3-1.6 million. It will recieve a good holiday boost. Remember The Indiana Jones DVD will release this Cmas once again with advertising that will put Indy in the spotlight a bit again.

Imagine these sales if Nintendo would do a player choice library.... Several of these would have a couple 100k extra in sales.

UPDATE: HUGE UPDATE!!

Zucas has stepped uop to help this from being a dead thread so thanks to him!! I've added all of his good analysis instead of my crappy analysis :P

if anyone else wants to contribute to this let me know.

• pokemon has finally hit platinum status!
• Game party hit platinum!
• deca sports went gold!
• Tiger Woods 08 went gold!

I'll add more gold in a sec

I think we should make a seperate thread for Multi-platium...

You know, it would be more of a sale prediction thread however... but the Funny thing about the Wii right now is there are more game looking at going Double plat than plat...

I'd love to see that man!