That was a long read. I see you put in some of your things from other places, it actually almost became boring because I've heard you say everything before :P

What might be interesting, is to look at how "casual" each system is. By using your after 10 week strategy that is. Hmm.

For this gen, the game will have to have been out for 40 weeks, and everything will be counted for first 10 weeks, then next 30, then full out. Could be interesting...

Twilight Princess:

First 10 weeks in each region: 2.3M.
After 65 weeks in each region: 4.6M

That's 50 % casual and 50% hardcore. This one is a bit flawed, due to hardcore getting Wii later, though.

Gears of War:

10 weeks in each region: 3.3M
After 70 weeks: 4.9M

67 % hardcore
33% Casuals

I could make a "leg calculator" by this. How much each sells in Japan first week and how it will keep up and such. Think it would work?

Hmm.

I've looked further at it, and it seems to work great.

Re4 Wii:

10 weeks: 670K
Next 27 weeks: 1.5M

Hardcore 44%
Casuals: 56%

Metroid Prime 3:

10 weeks: 850K
24 weeks: 1150K

So far: 73% hardcore and 27% casuals.

I think you guys are spending way too much time on this.  The big games, the GTA IV, the Devil May Cry 4's, the Halo 3's, all the games have huge advertising budgets.  As such, the casual gamer is likely to see a commercial on TV, say hmm, I think that looks good and go out and buy the game within the first 10 weeks. 

The biggest misconception is that hardcore is willing to invest lots of money but casuals aren't.  Time for my personal experience analysis :).  I am what I consider a hardcore game.  I buy 30-40 games a year.  However, 90% of them are used, and 80% of them I'll resell after I've had my share.  As such, I'm not really putting much money into the gaming industry or really spending that much on games as I offset my purchases by selling games. 

Is a casual person going to buy their 3-5 games a year used?  Most likely not, because it would be too much trouble for them they would rather just walk into a store and get their fix.  In fact, my brother in law took back Super Mario Galaxy because he didn't think he would have enough time for it.  Can it get any more casual?  But, when he saw me playing Guitar Hero and got a chance to play, he loved it.  As such, he went out and bought two copies of Guitar Hero 3 for the Wii ($180 for one game) since there weren't stand alone guitars.  And he bought them within the 10 week hardcore window. 

 In conclusion, I don't think the 10 week arbitrary time period works to break it out.  I think it's much harder to break out the differences because casuals will spend the money if they are interested. 

So a casual see's a Devil May Cry 4 commercial and runs out and buys it.  Myself, I see the commercial and think I'd like to try that out, but I know the game won't be discontinued, I know the game will eventually go on sale, I can wait.  I have mounds of games I need to beat already.  As such, I'm much more unlikely to pick it up within the 10 week window.  People like new things.  I do pick up my high profile games within the 10 week window, but a casual is likely to pick up a game when they know of it, which is at launch for most of the big titles.

Cleveland, some people shift both ways. Some HCs buy it after 10 weeks, some casuals before. A much bigger flaw in your post howe

The argument that a lot of people are making (or fearful thoughts they are entertaining) goes something like this:

1. Wii is casual.
2. Wii is outselling both the PS3 and 360.
3. Carnival Games sold a million!
4. Developers...
   a. Stop making the hardcore
   b. Start making mini-games.
   c. Profit
5. Hardcore gamers screwed by the casual success.
6. End of gaming.

Not the tightest argument but that's the gist of it. I appreciate the long OP, read it all, nice to read something coherent. Sorry my response is not directed squarely at your post but if I tried to pick it apart it would be mostly quibbling. Thanks.

I know that the first 10 weeks would include some casuals, but since it's impossible to separate who is buying the game, I decided that after 10 weeks the majority of people would be those that go into gaming stores occasionally, or check out the display cases at Wal-Mart once a month or so, in other words, the more mainstream users. People get disappointed at NMH and Zack and Wiki sales, and say "well if they advertised more they'd sell better." But to whom more could they sell? Most hardcore users probably already know about the game (through internet forums). So when they want those games to sell better, they are actually asking for more casuals users to buy the game.

And really the whole point of this thread is to show that we need to thank casuals, even the ones that play Carnival Games (no matter our opinion on the game), for being in the industry, and not being all "oh they're ruining gaming as we know it." High prices of hardware, software, high development costs, and low userbases would, without a doubt, destroy the industry. Maybe SpongeBob: The Battle wouldn't sell 1.5 million, but you'd also not have such a large and varied library from which to choose.

Just go look at American Weekly Sales comments. And there will be people saying "oh look, casual games in the top 10. Go figure." And then they'll continue to bash to Wii for only selling those types of games. And I'll simply quote from my original post, what exactly is going on:

If some advertised, full budget, hardcore games were put on the Wii, they would sell. And then they would have legs, so they would continue selling. 

You should try doing that for about any game. Some games will obviously have bigger legs (and thus a higher mainstream appeal) but every single game has it.

Those are some very good examples though. 

I also think casuals are highly important.  In fact, I think that hardcore gamers are more niche than you give it credit for.  If I really want a game and I'm willing to pay $50, I buy it opening week or 2 weeks tops.  You indicate correctly that a casual gamer would probably go to Walmart and check the cases resulting in two possible trips in ten weeks.  I realize it isn't an exact science, heck this site isn't but I just think they are way more niche. 

Like take for example Halo 3.  This is a game that casuals had to be very aware of due to the advertising.  2.8 million in the first week.  I just don't think that even a majority of those are hardcore.  It was in the casual market, it's a game that sells well as a frag fest.  So by your formula this game is like 90% hardcore.  So I think advertising has a huge effect, I would be willing to concede the longer time period for a game like zak and wiki that received no advertising. 

Additionally, there are several games that take off when a price drop occurs (I thrive off of these) which show a trend towards casual.  Lastly, a console like the Wii has been severly supply constrained.  As such, a hardcore gamer might say I'm not going to try to get a wii until Brawl comes out.  But once they have the Wii, they will then purchase several games to fill up their collection.  The wii has sold pretty much as much as produced, and the PS3 is just starting to take off due to the price drops/games.  These consoles will naturally trend casual for any games released early in their lives. 

I also think that a hardcore game on the wii, well advertised, would explode.  I think a casual gamer needs to be convinced that a game is going to provide 4 hours of entertainment.  I believe this because a trip for two to the movies costs $35 and provides two hours of entertainment.  I think people like to say casuals don't buy games but the trends don't support that.  They just need to be convinced of their value.

At the end of the day critics review scores matters little when it comes to sales. Most people (casuals) who buy games do not read review scores, if a game looks appealing they will buy it regardless of quality.

That was a great response.