About 1.5 - 2.5m

Watchdogs isn't really a big 3rd party title. Wait for COD advance warfare then you can come and talk to me. And like I said, it took one of Nintendo's most prized games to get that far and they are already drifting behind. Soon you can't rely on big franchises while Sony and Microsoft can rely on third party and first party exlcusives. 

U have got to be kidding, Watch Dogs isnt a big 3rd party game? Its Ubisoft's biggest opener ever with 4 million in the first week. And like I said a $100 price cut couldnt bring it ahead. Also this thread is just about this year so anything releasing beyond that is irrelevent to the discussion.

Do you mean lifetime sales?
Being 3/4ths through the financial year at the beginning of January, Nintendo will have forecast the Wii U to be around 9 million end of 2014. This would mean the X1 would have to reach 10.5-11.5 million by the end of the year to be in that kind of lead. That's over a million in a month -- but the XBO has only sold 1.5 million for the first half of this year and its sales are barely holding together in mainland Europe.

XBO gets even with the WiiU in the best case scenario.

-1 million.

SO will flop. Halo remake will do OK. Every other major XBO release this year is available on 360.

WiiU will start beasting partly owed to Hyrule Warrior's success in Japan, and surprisingly in NA too. Bayo 2 outperforming. Amiibo/Skylanders crossover appeal. X might even probably release in Japan by end of 2014. SSB should end up being a good HW driver if they deliver it on time.

It won't. I also think that the Xbox One is overtracked on here and that the Wii U is undertracked too...although there's only 100-200K difference in the VGC numbers imo.

Microsoft's silence on sales as opposed to shipments has been deafening.

Uff. It will be close. Lets see how Smash performs on WiiU. Honestly its up to Smash.

I do not see any games that allow the X1 to lead this year. 4 old Halo games are just not enough. The Wii-U will ride on the Mario Kart Wave for a while and then Smash Bros will kick in. The biggest X1 sellers will be Call of Duty, GTA 5 and Battlefield but these are multi-platform releases.

I don't see the xbox one passing the wii u this year or even next year. Nintendo is releasing some damn good games and I'm sure games like zelda and smash bros will prove to be a system seller. If the x1 does ever pass the wii u in sales I think it's going to take atleast 2 years.

To be honest I don't care about sales, but I see Xbox and Wii U being very close and so far Wii U is infront and still widening the gap. Microsoft better get off their arses and do summit.