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Forums - Sales Discussion - How do VGC compares to NPD on console launch?

kitler53 on 16 May 2014
vivster said:
fatslob-:O said:
vivster said:

Just didn't think  americans hate the X1 so much. Maybe the Xbox core fanbase is much smaller than I thought.

But I think we'll see everything we need to know in the next holidays.

People have to stop thinking that america has favouritism for a specific console manufacturer ... It used to be once Sony or Nintendo that ruled all of america's console market and not just xbox. The only reason why we obtained this perception that Microsoft is a big leader in english speaking countries is due to the fact that Microsoft held a really strong presence for a long period of time.

Xbox fans keep underestimating that anyone other than Microsoft doesn't have the potential to take back english markets really quickly in a new generation. Much like how Sony fans used to keep thinking that nobody other than Sony could be a market leader. Both fanbases knew little that a new console generation is always a clean slate and in turn Sony fans learned this the hard way when the WII was at the top. 

As I explained elsewhere I do not believe you can still apply the blank slate. The ecosystems are much more integrated since gen7 and a change in console manufacturers leaves a lot behind(friends, achievements, subscriptions etc) that will stop customers from simply changing the system.

There was no such thing between gen 6 and 7 or before that. That's why I believe that brand loyalty is as strong as it ever has been. Not only in US but world wide. It's apparently not strong enough to keep some people from changing but still strong. We will see this holiday when the console prices are the same and enough system sellers are out or on the horizon.

any you forget that ~10-15 percent of consoles aren't hooked up the internet at all and only around half of xbox owners subscribe to live gold.



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vivster on 16 May 2014
kitler53 said:
vivster said:
ImmortalHelixFossil said:
vivster said:
Still. That margin of error makes me doubt NPD a little. I just don't see why PS4 would dominate THAT much in April without any major releases.


That's the point. Billion dollar company's trust NPD group. What's VGChartz? You get freaking banned on other game sites (almost all of them) if you even mention this sites numbers. They will call the numbers "bullsh*t". People will laugh at you for even believing those numbers, I really like this community and that's why I daily visit this site, but I have to admit, I never really trust the numbers. Only we (this community) believes or at least enjoys the numbers and this site. The majority of the gamining sites think's otherwise, and I can't blame them.

I have doubt not because NPD contradicts VGC but my expectations. I didn't expect X1 to do that horribly in comparison to PS4. I would've believed it if the kinectless X1 was already announced but these numbers are just really surprising. After all this is Xbox country.


that's the exactly problem with vgcz's numbers.   they don't get any "real" data like npd does.  they conduct polls and rely on "historical trends".   usa is no longer "xbox country" any more how last gen being "playstation country" despite it's prior gen dominance.  people just need to forget the idea that xbox is super popular in the usa,.. the usa has no brand alligence.

To say that there is no brand allegiance is just as ignorant as calling US Xbox country.

As of my understanding VGC uses the same methodology NPD does, just with a lot less data points, which makes extrapolating the numbers a gamble. I dare say NPD doesn't even track half of the actual sales numbers and is extrapolating and trend checking as well.

It might be the most acurate numbers we have but they're definitely not absolute numbers and subject to errors. It's sad that there aren't multiple sales trackers. If we had, opinion about NPD might change when the rival tracker shows slightly different numbers. And yes I know that the companies are using NPD but it's not like they have a choice.



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vivster on 16 May 2014
kitler53 said:
vivster said:
fatslob-:O said:
vivster said:

Just didn't think  americans hate the X1 so much. Maybe the Xbox core fanbase is much smaller than I thought.

But I think we'll see everything we need to know in the next holidays.

People have to stop thinking that america has favouritism for a specific console manufacturer ... It used to be once Sony or Nintendo that ruled all of america's console market and not just xbox. The only reason why we obtained this perception that Microsoft is a big leader in english speaking countries is due to the fact that Microsoft held a really strong presence for a long period of time.

Xbox fans keep underestimating that anyone other than Microsoft doesn't have the potential to take back english markets really quickly in a new generation. Much like how Sony fans used to keep thinking that nobody other than Sony could be a market leader. Both fanbases knew little that a new console generation is always a clean slate and in turn Sony fans learned this the hard way when the WII was at the top. 

As I explained elsewhere I do not believe you can still apply the blank slate. The ecosystems are much more integrated since gen7 and a change in console manufacturers leaves a lot behind(friends, achievements, subscriptions etc) that will stop customers from simply changing the system.

There was no such thing between gen 6 and 7 or before that. That's why I believe that brand loyalty is as strong as it ever has been. Not only in US but world wide. It's apparently not strong enough to keep some people from changing but still strong. We will see this holiday when the console prices are the same and enough system sellers are out or on the horizon.

any you forget that ~10-15 percent of consoles aren't hooked up the internet at all and only around half of xbox owners subscribe to live gold.

And you are saying that the other half has no inclination towards Xbox?

I'm not saying That every 360 owner will buy an X1. Just that it is harder to switch than it ever and that we will see stronger brand allegience than ever which makes me believe that X1 has a fighting chance to easily win US.

Unless of course 80% of Xbox buyers were casuals who moved on to mobile. Which is another possibility I will not dismiss.



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Serious_frusting on 16 May 2014
vivster said:
Serious_frusting said:
PDF said:
kirby007 said:
What bugs me majorly we had zero/de nada/njet communication from the one who makes vgchartz numbers to clarify his numbers and officially announce adjustments

Yeah that bothers me too.  Correct me if I am wrong but years ago(2007).  Back when the source was involved wouldn't he put up a monthly or so article explaining how they reached the numbers.


pretty much. This site used to be a lot more iteractive bck then. I believe they have just lost interest in the whole sales thing. 

Isn't that what they make the most money with though?

I wonder what their customers are saying about the recent numbers.

To be honest i think VGC has very few customers. The data most people would want are handed out for free. I thik thats why VGC has so many adds. I think thats where they make the most money.



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kitler53 on 16 May 2014
vivster said:
kitler53 said:
vivster said:
ImmortalHelixFossil said:
vivster said:
Still. That margin of error makes me doubt NPD a little. I just don't see why PS4 would dominate THAT much in April without any major releases.


That's the point. Billion dollar company's trust NPD group. What's VGChartz? You get freaking banned on other game sites (almost all of them) if you even mention this sites numbers. They will call the numbers "bullsh*t". People will laugh at you for even believing those numbers, I really like this community and that's why I daily visit this site, but I have to admit, I never really trust the numbers. Only we (this community) believes or at least enjoys the numbers and this site. The majority of the gamining sites think's otherwise, and I can't blame them.

I have doubt not because NPD contradicts VGC but my expectations. I didn't expect X1 to do that horribly in comparison to PS4. I would've believed it if the kinectless X1 was already announced but these numbers are just really surprising. After all this is Xbox country.


that's the exactly problem with vgcz's numbers.   they don't get any "real" data like npd does.  they conduct polls and rely on "historical trends".   usa is no longer "xbox country" any more how last gen being "playstation country" despite it's prior gen dominance.  people just need to forget the idea that xbox is super popular in the usa,.. the usa has no brand alligence.

To say that there is no brand allegiance is just as ignorant as calling US Xbox country.

As of my understanding VGC uses the same methodology NPD does, just with a lot less data points, which makes extrapolating the numbers a gamble. I dare say NPD doesn't even track half of the actual sales numbers and is extrapolating and trend checking as well.

It might be the most acurate numbers we have but they're definitely not absolute numbers and subject to errors. It's sad that there aren't multiple sales trackers. If we had, opinion about NPD might change when the rival tracker shows slightly different numbers. And yes I know that the companies are using NPD but it's not like they have a choice.


no they don't.  it's very very different:

VGChartz Methodology

Data-Collection Methodology

All sales estimates on VGChartz are arrived at via a number of proprietrary and ever-developing methods:

  • Passively polling end users to find out what games they are currently purchasing and playing
  • Polling retail partners to find out what games and hardware they are selling
  • Using statistical trend fitting and historical data for similar games
  • Studying resell prices to determine consumer demand and inventory levels
  • Consulting with publishers and manufacturers to find out how many units they are introducing into the channel

All data is regularly checked against manufacturer shipments and data released publicly from other tracking firms to ensure accuracy. VGChartz holds no responsibility for the use of our data – any business decisions made are made at your own risk.

Regional Definitions

Data is directly estimated in the following countries on a weekly basis for around 5000 SKUs using the methodology outlined above:

  • USA
  • UK
  • Germany
  • France
  • Japan

Collectively, we estimate that total retail game sales in these 5 countries account for around 70% of the Global market. The raw data collected in these five regions are used to produce two extrapolated charts:

  • Europe - UK + Germany + France extrapolated to represent the European Totals
  • Global - USA + Europe + Japan extrapolated to represent the Global Totals

During 2012, VGChartz has plans to produce further direct charts for Canada, Spain, Italy, Latin America, Australia and Asia - each new chart will provide more regional insight along with greater Global accuracy.

More Data / Contact

VGChartz offers a professional data service called VGChartz Pro. If you require any custom analysis, preview data, forecasts or any other bespoke service outside of the scope of what is offered publically on VGChartz, or want to know more about the website then please contact us – contact AT vgchartz.com



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kitler53 on 16 May 2014
vivster said:
kitler53 said:
vivster said:
..

As I explained elsewhere I do not believe you can still apply the blank slate. The ecosystems are much more integrated since gen7 and a change in console manufacturers leaves a lot behind(friends, achievements, subscriptions etc) that will stop customers from simply changing the system.

There was no such thing between gen 6 and 7 or before that. That's why I believe that brand loyalty is as strong as it ever has been. Not only in US but world wide. It's apparently not strong enough to keep some people from changing but still strong. We will see this holiday when the console prices are the same and enough system sellers are out or on the horizon.

any you forget that ~10-15 percent of consoles aren't hooked up the internet at all and only around half of xbox owners subscribe to live gold.

And you are saying that the other half has no inclination towards Xbox?

I'm not saying That every 360 owner will buy an X1. Just that it is harder to switch than it ever and that we will see stronger brand allegience than ever which makes me believe that X1 has a fighting chance to easily win US.

Unless of course 80% of Xbox buyers were casuals who moved on to mobile. Which is another possibility I will not dismiss.


i'm saying the other half don't have access to the features you think makes it harder than for a customer to change ecosystems.   i'm suggesting at least half the market are no more tied to their ps360wii then they were to their ps2.

edit: i'm also suggesting that those features don't matter that much either.  there are very few people that are such achievement/trophy whores they would cite that as a reason they wouldn't buy the better system to them (aka games).  the only friends on a friends list that matters is the IRL friends which can easily be transfered as a group.



DonFerrari on 16 May 2014
Serious_frusting said:
You also have to consider when you are saying VGC has overtracked something compared to NPD is that

VGC = North America
NPD = USA


Like canada sold 102k X1 for March, joking.

Forgot that, but I think I selected USA if not Canada selling would be inane.



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vivster on 16 May 2014
kitler53 said:
vivster said:

To say that there is no brand allegiance is just as ignorant as calling US Xbox country.

As of my understanding VGC uses the same methodology NPD does, just with a lot less data points, which makes extrapolating the numbers a gamble. I dare say NPD doesn't even track half of the actual sales numbers and is extrapolating and trend checking as well.

It might be the most acurate numbers we have but they're definitely not absolute numbers and subject to errors. It's sad that there aren't multiple sales trackers. If we had, opinion about NPD might change when the rival tracker shows slightly different numbers. And yes I know that the companies are using NPD but it's not like they have a choice.


no they don't.  it's very very different:

VGChartz Methodology

Data-Collection Methodology

All sales estimates on VGChartz are arrived at via a number of proprietrary and ever-developing methods:

  • Passively polling end users to find out what games they are currently purchasing and playing
  • Polling retail partners to find out what games and hardware they are selling
  • Using statistical trend fitting and historical data for similar games
  • Studying resell prices to determine consumer demand and inventory levels
  • Consulting with publishers and manufacturers to find out how many units they are introducing into the channel

All data is regularly checked against manufacturer shipments and data released publicly from other tracking firms to ensure accuracy. VGChartz holds no responsibility for the use of our data – any business decisions made are made at your own risk.

bold - This sounds pretty much like direct sales data from real retailers.

This I got from the NPD site:

The estimates are published in NPD’s report, Games Market Dynamics:  U.S. (formerly known as the Games Industry:  Total Consumer Spend) –released by The NPD Group quarterly - and are derived leveraging NPD’s portfolio of physical POS tracking (Retail Tracking Service) and consumer research including the Games Acquisition Monitor, Video Game and PC Game Subscriptions Report and Consumer Tracking Service. It also incorporates consumer spend estimation provided by NPD retail and publisher partners, and calibration with third-party sources.

It sounds a lot fancier but ultimately the same to me.



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fatslob-:O on 16 May 2014
vivster said:
fatslob-:O said:
vivster said:

Just didn't think  americans hate the X1 so much. Maybe the Xbox core fanbase is much smaller than I thought.

But I think we'll see everything we need to know in the next holidays.

People have to stop thinking that america has favouritism for a specific console manufacturer ... It used to be once Sony or Nintendo that ruled all of america's console market and not just xbox. The only reason why we obtained this perception that Microsoft is a big leader in english speaking countries is due to the fact that Microsoft held a really strong presence for a long period of time.

Xbox fans keep underestimating that anyone other than Microsoft doesn't have the potential to take back english markets really quickly in a new generation. Much like how Sony fans used to keep thinking that nobody other than Sony could be a market leader. Both fanbases knew little that a new console generation is always a clean slate and in turn Sony fans learned this the hard way when the WII was at the top. 

As I explained elsewhere I do not believe you can still apply the blank slate. The ecosystems are much more integrated since gen7 and a change in console manufacturers leaves a lot behind(friends, achievements, subscriptions etc) that will stop customers from simply changing the system.

There was no such thing between gen 6 and 7 or before that. That's why I believe that brand loyalty is as strong as it ever has been. Not only in US but world wide. It's apparently not strong enough to keep some people from changing but still strong. We will see this holiday when the console prices are the same and enough system sellers are out or on the horizon.

Alright I don't see much argument from staying on one brand because of friends and that's mainly because most people only play single player games/modes. No one is attached to some worthless virtual trophy system as "casuals" couldn't give too shits and they are the majority that make up the PS360 customer base. Only half of the xbox customers actually subscribe like kitler pointed out and not all of them a gold members. 

If brand loyalty was so strong then why isn't xbox dominating NPD yet ? Brand loyalty is at it's strongest in the early lifespan of the systems but as you can see people are no more attached to the 360 than they were with the PS2. 



vivster on 16 May 2014
fatslob-:O said:
vivster said:
fatslob-:O said:
vivster said:

Just didn't think  americans hate the X1 so much. Maybe the Xbox core fanbase is much smaller than I thought.

But I think we'll see everything we need to know in the next holidays.

People have to stop thinking that america has favouritism for a specific console manufacturer ... It used to be once Sony or Nintendo that ruled all of america's console market and not just xbox. The only reason why we obtained this perception that Microsoft is a big leader in english speaking countries is due to the fact that Microsoft held a really strong presence for a long period of time.

Xbox fans keep underestimating that anyone other than Microsoft doesn't have the potential to take back english markets really quickly in a new generation. Much like how Sony fans used to keep thinking that nobody other than Sony could be a market leader. Both fanbases knew little that a new console generation is always a clean slate and in turn Sony fans learned this the hard way when the WII was at the top.

As I explained elsewhere I do not believe you can still apply the blank slate. The ecosystems are much more integrated since gen7 and a change in console manufacturers leaves a lot behind(friends, achievements, subscriptions etc) that will stop customers from simply changing the system.

There was no such thing between gen 6 and 7 or before that. That's why I believe that brand loyalty is as strong as it ever has been. Not only in US but world wide. It's apparently not strong enough to keep some people from changing but still strong. We will see this holiday when the console prices are the same and enough system sellers are out or on the horizon.

Alright I don't see much argument from staying on one brand because of friends and that's mainly because most people only play single player games/modes. No one is attached to some worthless virtual trophy system as "casuals" couldn't give too shits and they are the majority that make up the PS360 customer base. Only half of the xbox customers actually subscribe like kitler pointed out and not all of them a gold members.

If brand loyalty was so strong then why isn't xbox dominating NPD yet ? Brand loyalty is at it's strongest in the early lifespan of the systems but as you can see people are no more attached to the 360 than they were with the PS2.

I don't see what brand loyality has to do with the age of a new system. Fans will buy when they decide they need to and are financially able to. Just because you aren't an early adopter doesn't mean that you won't stay loyal to your brand. People who stay longer with their last gen console are probably even more loyal(if they're not casuals).

In my opinion the reason why X1 is not leading in US yet is because it had severe marketing problems which would scare off any fan. There are currently no hallmark Xbox games out, you know the reason why people get brand loyal, and it may have been too expensive. Xbox is currently warming up to fans again and may as well hit a homerun in the gholidays and definitely in the holidays after that. It will also scoop up a lot of the "lost" fans that first bought a PS4 because of the media outcry.

Don't equate brand loyal people with fanboys.

There are a lot of things MS can do to not only get their old fans but also win some new ones. If Xbox is not market leader in US or at least very close to it after the release of Halo 5 I will concede to your arguments.



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