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Forums - Sales Discussion - Guesstimating Kinect One potential sales.


Kinect total user base by the and of this generation

Less than 20mi 8 50.00%
Between 21mi and 40mi 6 37.50%
Between 41mi and 60mi 1 6.25%
More than 60mi 1 6.25%

So, acording to VGChartz Kinect Adventure sold close to 21mi units since hollydays 2010. In that same time frame it shows that the 360 sold about 36mi units.

Will that 2 to 3 ratio carry foward this generation?

My picks:

Op 1: No, Kinect One will sell at a better ratio than the 360 one:

Reason: Kinect is this time around a more advanced and integrated part of console ecosystem. There will be more games that will make subtle use of voice/movement comands, along with apps. The advance in VR and AR will demand a powerfull body/head tracking device.

Op 2: No, Kinect One will sell worst than the previous generation.

Reason: Motion gaming is dead. The casual audience Kinect360 and Wii captured between 2007 and 2011 has migrated to smartphones and tablets.

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I expect Kinect 2.0 to sell very poorly once it's available separately, unless it's priced very low, so about $60 or lower. Anything higher will not work.
Also, I expect a flood of used Kinects on the market, which will additionally undercut sales of a newly packaged machine.

The only way for any answer other than the first one to happen is if MS publishes some truly magnificent Kinect AAA games (Halo, Gears Kibect only titles) that work impeccably well and flawlessly.
Other than those improbable outcomes, Phil Spencer just took it out behind the barn and shot it, while telling everybody it's at the uncle's farm upstate.

It depends on how Microsoft does the Kinectless bundle. If the price difference is minimal throughout the gen then it has a good chance of outselling the old Kinect.

Bet Shiken that COD would outsell Battlefield in 2018.

So, this thread hasn´t kindled any hot discusion...

Seems the interest in Kinect is very low indeed.

I agree with OP 2. It doesn't take a rocket science degree to see the whole motion sensing rubbish is dead.

What exactly is Nintendo doing with motion sensing on the Wii U?

What the f;:k happened to Move?

Why is MS now selling kinectless Xbox ones? Which will most likely quickly outsell the kinect enable ones.

Apart from the Wii the whole motion sensing thing was a disaster. Yes, MS got a whole lot of people to spend a lot of money on an add on to play a couple games and talk to their TVs, That's genius. Why not take easy money, I applaud them for that. Sony did the same but kinect was easily the daddy.

And indeed the Kinect Adventure game sold very well but how as kinect or Move significantly change AAA games in terms of gameplay relative to where we are in 2014?