New Super Mario Bros. 2 released a few months before NSMBU released on the Wii U. The 3DS SSB4 will release in the summer and SSB4 will release in Winter 2014.

According to VGchartz NSMB 2 has sold 7.43 million. NSMBU has sold 3.87 million but it's been heavily bundled (although I wouldn't be surprise if it sold around 3.5 million if it wasn't bundled).

Will SSB4 follow a similar pattern?

Things to note:

1. NSMB has more sales the NSMB Wii. NSMB has sold 29.43 million. NSMB Wii has sold 27.35. NSMB Wii was also bundled during Wii's life span but has been on the market 3 years shorter than NSMB for DS.

2. This is the first Smash Bros. game for a hand-held. So any sale speculation has no real basis. I guess this defeat the purpose of this thread but whatever.

3. Japan loves Super Smash Bros. and hand-helds more than Nintendo console last gen  and this gen. 21% of Brawl's sale comes from Japan. And we already know Japan loves hand-held based on the weekly numbers and etc.

Discuss!

I believe it already sold a lot prior to the bundle.
But on topic, 2. says it all. It would be purely speculation, but I honestly doubt it will sell much on the Wii U. Mario Kart hardly has any preorders atm and that franchise is a lot more popular than SSB. But okay, here an estimation:

3DS version: 4.000.000
Wii U version: 900.000

Yessss!

Hell yea, I say even better!

When you agree, do you mean you think the hand-held version will sell more than console version?

I think it has a good chance of doing that... 

The 3DS version will sell more for sure. First week. First month. First year. Lifetime.

But I do not think it will more than double the WiiU version. So I may use the 3DS numbers to get a guess for WiiU.

SSB4 3DS will crush Wii U version because it comes out a lot earlier, and has a bigger instal base.

Personally I don't see this as a good move by nintendo as it means that SSB4 probabally won't be a huge console mover.  Why wait for SSB4 on Wii U when you could play it on 3DS five months sooner?  Plus the 3DS is cheaper too.

Just look at USA preorders, ~6M Wii U preorders & ~17M 3DS preorders for SSB4.

VGChartz numbers for preorders? I think you need another source

Yeah, I started thinking that the late WiiU release could be a good thing, building hype with the 3DS version, but now I'm starting to doubt more.
I have to bank on the fact that most people will see the fun of Smash as being in front of the TV with your friends. Which it really is. That's true Smash Bros.

Of course, that ALSO means that technically only a couple of your friends need to own it to fill all of your needs, and the rest of you can just own the 3DS versions for your personal enjoyment or practice.