At first I thought it would take quite a while for 3rd parties to move on to ps4/xbox one exclusively, but it seems to be happening faster than I thought. Games like Arkham Knight and The Witcher 3 are only coming out on ps4/xbone/pc. Of course annual franchises like cod/ac will prob stick around for a bit longer, but what about other games?

I think it is going to be very quick. I expect it to start with the AAA studios being exclusive to the next gen versions, while smaller studios are tasked with porting/downgrading to the PS360. That trend I expect to start this holiday with the annual releases.

They will probably continue to make games for the PS3 tell at least 2016, 360 I have a difficult time even knowing what to think. In the next couple of years though I expect games to look worse than games that have already come out as studios working on the games have smaller staffs, and less development experience.

Now there is one really good thing about this period of time. This will give a lot of experience to up and coming developers, and could be the birth of the next big AAA team.

i think it is happenning very fast in the west , but the biggest consern is in japan , with many games lunching only on ps3 , like personna 5 .

It'll take years before the average game isn't a cross-gen multiplat. The bigger titles that focus to the core however will of course make the change sooner. Hence Witcher 3.

Depends on the company, but I expect most of the bigger ones by next year.

We won't be seeing many outside of Japan that aren't sports games by next year IMO. The consoles are selling like hotcakes, and the next-gen versions of cross gen titles are selling great despite the massive gap in install base.

Sports games, annualized franchises and games from Japan will probably stay cross-gen for a while. But I think in a year most games will be 8th gen only. It also helps that they are selling well.