mai said:
Drakrami said: 1) Why are the rebels in Eastern Ukraine so heavily armed and trained? |
I'm not sure what training you're referring to? As far as I'm aware lack of training is severe problem for rebels, they even installed few training facilities for new recruits. I'd assume few 50+ years old Afghanistan vets are the best officers rebels could dream of, plus some volunteers from Russia and Ossetia that might have military experience. Strelkov, the de-facto commander near Slavyansk, has issued a note not so long time ago to the people of Donbass with plea to support them, especially those with military experience.
All arms they have have been either captured in Ukrainian security service and police buildings, or handed to them by Ukrainian military who refused to fight against them. 6 BMD's, NSV machine gun, 2 mortars, few ATGMs and unknown number of RPGs -- that's all they have aside from small arms. BMDs came from Ukrainian 95th VDV brigade, that partially have been disarmed by the locals, ATGMs most likely came from the Ukrainian military as well.
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Right, I've seen tons of pics of using just archaic guns from WWII or even before. There's obviously a better armed contingent, and maybe those get shown more in Western media, but it seems to be a minority of the movement. But like Mai said, there is also Ukrainian military and police forces joining the Resistance, who bring gear with them in most cases. Ukraine had (has) a conscript army, so there is a relatively large # of people with basic military training, as well Soviet veterans with the USSR having a huge army. The Kiev coup regime just announced they are prosecuting 17,000 police who "defected". As well as similar number of Ukrainian military in Crimea, incluing the top commander of Navy... That's alot of people, who comprise major portions of the legitiamte Ukrainian government. Between defected mil units, police and local armories, weaons seized from Kiev forces (e.g. shoulder launched SAMs), and even a giant arms depot going back to WWII that is in the area, the # of weapons seen is more than legit.
mai said:
Drakrami said: 2) Why are the rebels risking their own lives to attack Ukrainian soldiers? First of all, I doubt they hated their Ukrainian lives so much that they would risk their lives to overthrow the government? Second of all, if the answer to the previous question is: "yes, they hated their Ukrainian lives that much", then why did they not rebel much earlier? |
They didn't at first. Ponomaryev, Slavyansk "people's mayor", had an agreement with military not to shoot at each other, that proved to be ineffective when Ukrainian military has been used as a cover for so called National Guard (various armed nationalistic groups used by Kiev) and mercenaries against rebels.
You seem just overestimate the military power Kiev has in control. Rebels might be weak, but Kiev is weak too. Military refuses to fight en masse, so Kiev is forced to rely on various armed groups like National Guard with questionable legal status and even more questionable military experience.
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Exactly. Drakami is missing the point, the SE Resistance did not decide to overthrow the legitimate government, the Kiev coup regime decided to do that in an an illegal coup detat replacing the President (in a very centralized Presidential system of government), despite that they couldn't fulfill the Constitutional requirements. Thus all their subsequent actions, including changing the Constitution, sacking judges and other government employees, creating armed militias (NatGuard, not to mention private militia) are all legally tainted, and the SE Resistance isn't inclined to ignore legal technicalities for fascists or people happy to cooperate with fascists. The coup pretty much does create a legal vacuum, but the SE Resistance decided they weren't just going to be forced into the illegal junta's political project, and stood up for themself... Initially using pretty much identical tactics as "Maidan" forces had been using for months leading up to coup, and ultimately being forced to escalate when the junta started repressing them with full force, beyond what Yanukovych had done to Maidan protestors.
Back then, the army had refused to get involved vs. Ukrainian civilians, which is exactly what they're supposed to do by the Constitution. Now they're being used vs internal political dissidents (opposed to an illegal coup, no less). Incidentally, the only situation they are supposed to use military force internally is supposed to require a declaration of state of emergency/martial law, and de facto that IS the situation, but the coup regime has neglected to actually declare that, because the law says that you can't run elections under a state of emergency... and the coup wants to give itself whatever fig leaf of legitimacy it can by running an election, so it breaks more laws in order to do that.
But yeah, they didn't hate their life in Ukraine so much to rebel before, even though there certainly has been a strain of Ukrainian nationalism trying to socially engineer the whole country to conform to their political agenda, language and history, as well as things like NATO alignment (implying enemy status to Russia). But when faced with an illegal coup including open fascists, that is allowing mass political repression and violence (particularly where they are strongest, outside the SE), any trust in the previous state of affairs continuing "business as usual" kind of goes out the window, along with any level of trust in "rule of law" when so many laws can be broken by fascists and nationalist seizing power. Maidan managed to pull off a revolution in Kiev, great for them, but that doesn't mean eveybody has to go along with it, and other regions may well want to take the revolutionary situation in their own direction: That's what you get for overthrowing the Constitutional order. To be clear, the junta changed the constitution (again, legally tainted by illegal replacement of President) so the different sides couldn't even agree on what is the currently legitimate Constitution.
If there is to be some agreement, I think it would involve each sie being recognized as equvalently legitimate, and forging some new Constitutional order based on consensus between both sides, which would probably look something like Bosnia, given the level of distrust that has been engendered. Otherwise, I don't see how Ukraine can continue in the same form.