The obvious answer is "Neither".

Not really, it's down YOY and treaded very carefully to below 20k April/May. Mario Kart isn't until 30th May and there is nothing from now till then.

And if XB1 doesn't have any SW over the summer who knows how low it could go!

WiiU is tracking flat/above 2013 on a weekly basis. 2013 had 0 major releases for the first 6months, 2014 has 1 major release and 1 wild card that could potentially be a big to major release.

Xbox one has titanfall which will keep it a float. You can also bet that there will be tons of 3rd parties on board which means that we won't see any major drought on xbox.

That major release doesn't matter, I'm pretty sure noone thinks it'll be below 20k after Mario Kart. I'm talking about the next 3 months. DK is indeed a wildcard, so far the results are not promising. How many years do you think WiiU can be flat YOY with no software releasing??

Three cool Xbox One games came out THIS WEEK. Admittedly, one was Strider, but still. I didn't even know about them until they came out.

Xbox One still has Project Spark to launch in the next few months, on top of Titanfall.

I have an X1 and a Wii U, and I'll be flipping my X1 on far more often than my Wii U in the months leading up to June, I can assure you that.

This isn't happening, distinct and scary things that are probable for X1 are going below 10k in EU and below 25k in US, even this would be a bit of a disaster, as it would be welcome to Vita territory and theres no one that thinks Vita's performance is OK.

I think Wii U like vita is already had long enough to improve if its not happened by now it just isn't going to, hopefully it will make Nintendo realise it needs to go back to software innovation and stop them thinking hardware is the key just because it got lucky twice with DS and Wii. Im pretty sure Sony will never make another handheld, they will move into mobile and connected devices with PS Now.

Both releases DO matter. The system is basically selling equally as much as last year (and even a bit more). Last year, the system dipped only once below 20k without any significant releases in it's first 6months. That week below 20k was in June. In 2014, mario kart 8 basically confirms that there isn't going to be a week below 20k in May and onwards. As for Feb-April, we have DK. Last year, Lego city gave wiiU a pretty good boost. I expect DK to give atleast the same boost as Lego city. 

If the system, last year, only dipped once in it's first 6months below 20k with 1 decent game release, you can bet that it can go 3months without any software without going below 20k. 

Also, it should be noted that Mr.Miyamoto confirmed that the year of Luigi ends at the end of March. Perhaps that we could see a surprise Luigi's mansion 2 HD launch for wiiU? But that's just pure speculation.

I think basing expectations of Wii U's early 2014 performance off of it's early 2013 performance is missing the fact that the perception of the Wii U went faaaaaaaaaar south in that time. Now, it's regarded as a bit of a dud. ALSO, it has competition from two new consoles that it didn't have last year.

I'll divide your post in 2 seperate points.

1) How so? If it's performing better then 2013, HOW does that give any substantial credibility to your point? If it's perception went "far south" in the last year, how is it performing better in 2014? 

2) WiiU is selling to Nintendo fans and ONLY to Nintendo fans. And as we saw in November, December and even now, in January, ps4 and xbox one had next to no effect at all on wiiU sales. In fact, wiiU sold more in december 2013 vs december 2012. 

Do you not remember the price cut?

The perception of the console as being a bit of a dud is true even if the sales are moderately up. 

Wii U has way more games (though still not a ton) than it did at this time last year, so people might think of it as a dud but still be more willing to pay for a CHEAPER console with MORE GAMES.

And come on, the sales have been so bad that being slightly up from this time last year is no huge victory. Are you seriously debating that the media and the gamer communities don't think of the Wii U as a flop at this point? I can point to dozens of articles demonstrating that the media think the Wii U is seriously underperforming.

As for point two, you are conceding that there is a small base of people who are interested in Wii U. This group has shrunk rather than grown since the GCN, and the Wii U is tracking under the trajectory for the GameCube. So there is no reason to expect it to sell well.

All I'm saying is that there is good reason to suspect the Wii U might dip below 20k weekly between now and Mario Kart. I