By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Questions about NPD Data

PooperScooper said:
Ps3 was at 9.94 adding the 80k it just sold its at 10.03 he didnt adjust. It would be 10.09 then.

 Well maybe he felt the PS3 data was good and only the DS was off, still it shows that he checked his data and decided what needed changing, like he said he would



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Around the Network
Avinash_Tyagi said:
PooperScooper said:
Ps3 was at 9.94 adding the 80k it just sold its at 10.03 he didnt adjust. It would be 10.09 then.

 Well maybe he felt the PS3 data was good and only the DS was off, still it shows that he checked his data and decided what needed changing, like he said he would


Nevermind



 

 2008 end of year predictions:

PS3: 22M

360: 25M

wii: 40M

he may have adjusted previous others data. Remember, he had the DS selling 200k everyweek and this week it was 160k, it very well could have been a back adjustment.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

If what has been said here is true -- if we never see the NPD quarerly data -- we have no idea what adjustments are made.

Meanwhile, everything VGChartz does is seen by all.

That leads to (mis)perceptions about accuracy.

Mike from Morgantown



      


I am Mario.


I like to jump around, and would lead a fairly serene and aimless existence if it weren't for my friends always getting into trouble. I love to help out, even when it puts me at risk. I seem to make friends with people who just can't stay out of trouble.

Wii Friend Code: 1624 6601 1126 1492

NNID: Mike_INTV

mike_intellivision said:
If what has been said here is true -- if we never see the NPD quarerly data -- we have no idea what adjustments are made.

Meanwhile, everything VGChartz does is seen by all.

That leads to (mis)perceptions about accuracy.

Mike from Morgantown

Exactly. Though I'm tired of discussing the NPD stuff, this is so true. NPD comes out, reports what they found, and then the companies quote them, and then things go back to the way it was. But there's two problems with this.

  1. If NPD changes the numbers, we never know. The companies may know, but they're not going to come out and say something about month(s) old data.
  2. Everyone says that NPD is "used by all companies" and this is true. What's not completely fair is that there's no one else to quote. So obviously they are going to quote NPD, because there's just no one else to quote.
  3. Going with #2, people seem to think that this makes them more accurate. In all technicality, that is not true. Without any competition, there's no way to say who is more accurate, because without a second opinion, you can't choose, so you quote who you have, but that does not make them accurate. Obviously if NPD were way off every month they wouldn't survive, but that doesn't mean they always hit it on the nail, as was seen in December when they were way off (for the Wii at least). NPD is off one month (and seems to have been off the last few months before that), and everyone still "accepts" them as the standard, while VGChartz differs from them for one month, and all of the sudden VGChartz is not accurate and losing credibility? The fact that VGChartz could become a "second opinion" makes VGChartz a threat.
  4. If we just adjust to NPD everytime we are way off (more than +/-15%) then all we'd really be doing is reporting NPD numbers and giving an estimated weekly sales, which is hardly better than using your own data and calculating what the sales would be according to your samples. As everyone has said about competition in the console industry, the same applies to tracking firms. The more competition, the better. So adjusting to them every time doesn't make us more accurate. It makes us a copycat, and thus shows we cannot even believe in our own (NA) data, so why should they believe our Others and Japan data?
That about sums it up I'd think.

Around the Network
Stever89 said:
mike_intellivision said:
If what has been said here is true -- if we never see the NPD quarerly data -- we have no idea what adjustments are made.

Meanwhile, everything VGChartz does is seen by all.

That leads to (mis)perceptions about accuracy.

Mike from Morgantown

Exactly. Though I'm tired of discussing the NPD stuff, this is so true. NPD comes out, reports what they found, and then the companies quote them, and then things go back to the way it was. But there's two problems with this.

  1. If NPD changes the numbers, we never know. The companies may know, but they're not going to come out and say something about month(s) old data.
  2. Everyone says that NPD is "used by all companies" and this is true. What's not completely fair is that there's no one else to quote. So obviously they are going to quote NPD, because there's just no one else to quote.
  3. Going with #2, people seem to think that this makes them more accurate. In all technicality, that is not true. Without any competition, there's no way to say who is more accurate, because without a second opinion, you can't choose, so you quote who you have, but that does not make them accurate. Obviously if NPD were way off every month they wouldn't survive, but that doesn't mean they always hit it on the nail, as was seen in December when they were way off (for the Wii at least). NPD is off one month (and seems to have been off the last few months before that), and everyone still "accepts" them as the standard, while VGChartz differs from them for one month, and all of the sudden VGChartz is not accurate and losing credibility? The fact that VGChartz could become a "second opinion" makes VGChartz a threat.
  4. If we just adjust to NPD everytime we are way off (more than +/-15%) then all we'd really be doing is reporting NPD numbers and giving an estimated weekly sales, which is hardly better than using your own data and calculating what the sales would be according to your samples. As everyone has said about competition in the console industry, the same applies to tracking firms. The more competition, the better. So adjusting to them every time doesn't make us more accurate. It makes us a copycat, and thus shows we cannot even believe in our own (NA) data, so why should they believe our Others and Japan data?
That about sums it up I'd think.

 Post of the Day....seriously.....Bravo good sir!



To Each Man, Responsibility
Stever89 said:
mike_intellivision said:
If what has been said here is true -- if we never see the NPD quarerly data -- we have no idea what adjustments are made.

Meanwhile, everything VGChartz does is seen by all.

That leads to (mis)perceptions about accuracy.

Mike from Morgantown

Exactly. Though I'm tired of discussing the NPD stuff, this is so true. NPD comes out, reports what they found, and then the companies quote them, and then things go back to the way it was. But there's two problems with this.

  1. If NPD changes the numbers, we never know. The companies may know, but they're not going to come out and say something about month(s) old data.
  2. Everyone says that NPD is "used by all companies" and this is true. What's not completely fair is that there's no one else to quote. So obviously they are going to quote NPD, because there's just no one else to quote.
  3. Going with #2, people seem to think that this makes them more accurate. In all technicality, that is not true. Without any competition, there's no way to say who is more accurate, because without a second opinion, you can't choose, so you quote who you have, but that does not make them accurate. Obviously if NPD were way off every month they wouldn't survive, but that doesn't mean they always hit it on the nail, as was seen in December when they were way off (for the Wii at least). NPD is off one month (and seems to have been off the last few months before that), and everyone still "accepts" them as the standard, while VGChartz differs from them for one month, and all of the sudden VGChartz is not accurate and losing credibility? The fact that VGChartz could become a "second opinion" makes VGChartz a threat.
  4. If we just adjust to NPD everytime we are way off (more than +/-15%) then all we'd really be doing is reporting NPD numbers and giving an estimated weekly sales, which is hardly better than using your own data and calculating what the sales would be according to your samples. As everyone has said about competition in the console industry, the same applies to tracking firms. The more competition, the better. So adjusting to them every time doesn't make us more accurate. It makes us a copycat, and thus shows we cannot even believe in our own (NA) data, so why should they believe our Others and Japan data?
That about sums it up I'd think.

 As to #2 why don't they then use VGchartz numbers??  If VGchartz is more accurate they should use them but oh wait they do not i wonder why.... maybe because NPD has a bigger sample and more accurate numbers?  Nah that would be to obvious.  Quite a conundrum we have here i suppose.  Why wouldn't they use VGchartz numbers??



Auron said:
Stever89 said:
mike_intellivision said:
If what has been said here is true -- if we never see the NPD quarerly data -- we have no idea what adjustments are made.

Meanwhile, everything VGChartz does is seen by all.

That leads to (mis)perceptions about accuracy.

Mike from Morgantown

Exactly. Though I'm tired of discussing the NPD stuff, this is so true. NPD comes out, reports what they found, and then the companies quote them, and then things go back to the way it was. But there's two problems with this.

  1. If NPD changes the numbers, we never know. The companies may know, but they're not going to come out and say something about month(s) old data.
  2. Everyone says that NPD is "used by all companies" and this is true. What's not completely fair is that there's no one else to quote. So obviously they are going to quote NPD, because there's just no one else to quote.
  3. Going with #2, people seem to think that this makes them more accurate. In all technicality, that is not true. Without any competition, there's no way to say who is more accurate, because without a second opinion, you can't choose, so you quote who you have, but that does not make them accurate. Obviously if NPD were way off every month they wouldn't survive, but that doesn't mean they always hit it on the nail, as was seen in December when they were way off (for the Wii at least). NPD is off one month (and seems to have been off the last few months before that), and everyone still "accepts" them as the standard, while VGChartz differs from them for one month, and all of the sudden VGChartz is not accurate and losing credibility? The fact that VGChartz could become a "second opinion" makes VGChartz a threat.
  4. If we just adjust to NPD everytime we are way off (more than +/-15%) then all we'd really be doing is reporting NPD numbers and giving an estimated weekly sales, which is hardly better than using your own data and calculating what the sales would be according to your samples. As everyone has said about competition in the console industry, the same applies to tracking firms. The more competition, the better. So adjusting to them every time doesn't make us more accurate. It makes us a copycat, and thus shows we cannot even believe in our own (NA) data, so why should they believe our Others and Japan data?
That about sums it up I'd think.

 As to #2 why don't they then use VGchartz numbers??  If VGchartz is more accurate they should use them but oh wait they do not i wonder why.... maybe because NPD has a bigger sample and more accurate numbers?  Nah that would be to obvious.  Quite a conundrum we have here i suppose.  Why wouldn't they use VGchartz numbers??


 Or it could be that NPD, by virtue of having no competition for years, is more respected, whether or not their public numbers are accurate or not



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi said:
 

Or it could be that NPD, by virtue of having no competition for years, is more respected, whether or not their public numbers are accurate or not


I couldn't have said it better. And again, NPD of course doesn't want competition, because that would hurt their revenue. But copying their numbers doesn't give them competition, and doesn't help our credibility, as I have pointed out. If you didn't read points 3 and 4 after responding about 2, I'd say go back and read them.



Stever89 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
 

Or it could be that NPD, by virtue of having no competition for years, is more respected, whether or not their public numbers are accurate or not


I couldn't have said it better. And again, NPD of course doesn't want competition, because that would hurt their revenue. But copying their numbers doesn't give them competition, and doesn't help our credibility, as I have pointed out. If you didn't read points 3 and 4 after responding about 2, I'd say go back and read them.


 Ok I will grant you 3 and 4 for the sake of argument.  Now HYPOTHETICALLY if 3 and 4 would be true then ioi is a hypocrite because he adjusts numbers when Jap and Pal numbers are released so why not NPD?