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Forums - Sales Discussion - Michael Pachter predicts PS3 will win this round of console wars

Fractal of Time said:

@naznatips

No this generation is different than last generation.
Last generation DC, NGC PS2 and Xbox all focused on being a highend system.
But this time it's different.
Xbox 360/PS3 are still focussing on highend system. Wii is going a different way. And this different way splits the casual you are meaning in 2 parts non and casual gamers.

You can't look back at last generation.

You are totally right about the dedicated gamer. It has zero influence on the market.

It's not price it's value.
Amount of games is correct if all console are alike. I don't know the Wii-mote makes games very different. I think the non-gamers will love it and casual gamers will hate it.

Popularity is also important, but Wii won't secure a 5 year popularity. It could be 2/3 years.


 

No, Price and value are seperate.  The Price HAS to be below $300 for a casual consumer.  It really should be below $200 (that's when 80% of PS2s were purchased).  Value is determined by the amount of games for the price, and the Wii certainly already has "amount of games per price."  It' just doesn't have the most games yet, but it's gaining on that fast.  Popularity is a self feeding entity.  Once something becomes popular it only exapnds on that.  Like the PSone, the PS2, the iPod... it only takes a start, then positive media and word of mouth run your marketing campaign for you.  There is a reason that the fastest selling console always wins the system war. 

If you can site a time when this doesn't matter, please do.  The thing is that this generation really isn't different from the last generation as much as people like to think, at least in sales.  The Wii is selling about 15% better than the PS2, the Xbox 360 about 5% better than the Xbox, and the PS3 about 20% less than the Gamecube.  All we are seeing here is role reversal.  It's a simple shift of the casual audience.  The casuals aren't going to WAIT for a price cut on the PS3 or 360.  They don't wait for anything, they buy whatever is interesting to them, whatever has the hype, and whatever has the most games.  Again, all this really boils down to is the Wii.  It fits all the buying requirements of the casual gamer.  There aren't tech heads among casuals.  There aren't people who care about Blu-ray, or HD-DVD, or even HD in general.  They only buy on those 3 things: Price, Amount of Games, Popularity. 

Obviously price has a range that casuals will buy it.  The GC for example was 50 bucks cheaper than the PS2 when the PS2 hit that magic $200 number, but the PS2 was already the more popular choice and already had more games.  So any system under that $200 price point can hit mass market casual appeal.  The problem is that the 360 premium won't hit that for at least 2 years, and the PS3 will never hit that.  The Wii is selling like crazy BEFORE even dropping down to that casual purchase value.  The console wars are based off momentum.  All it takes is one good kick start, a reasonable price, and lots of games and you have it won.  The DS to the PSP is another perfect example of this.  

Please understand, I am in no way insulting either the PS3 or the 360.  I like both systems, and will own both of them, but as far as this individual system war goes, the Wii has very little chance of losing the momentum it has established and even less chance of losing the generation.



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Nobody cares about HD-DVD and Blu-Ray when it comes to video games. If Blu-Ray wins, the Playstation 3 will still suck, and if HD-DVD wins, the Xbox 360 will still suck. If the Wii, which doesn't even have a standard DVD player, yet, is selling more than the Playstation 3, and Xbox 360, combined, in terms of monthly sales, than if either HD-DVD, or Blu-Ray win, the Playstation 3, and Xbox 360, still wont have a chance again the Wii. The most important thing about video games, are the video games, and not all of that other bull shit, such as "pictures," "movies," and "songs," which are the most typical things, electronics can perform, now days. It's almost like a rule.

The other cow crap, that video games can do, are just bonuses, and nothing else. They merely serve as convenience. Besides, what HD-DVD, and Blu-Ray, both lose? When comparing the Wii, Xbox 360, and Playstation 3, it doesn't matter if any of them win. Can Blu-Ray. by itself, create Zelda? Can HD-DVD, by itself, create Halo? If you took one of those gay movie-games, such as "Shrek the Third," and converted it to "Super Blu-Ray," would you get a Mario game out of it? No. You would get a nicer looking, piece of cow shit. We aren't comparing DVD players here, we're comparing gaming consoles. The topic of "HD-DVD verses Blu-Ray" should be focused in "DVD-Chartz," and not "VGChartz." They mean almost nothing in video games.



Blue3 said:
HappySqurriel said:
Blue3 said:
Probably right. Wii lacks the hardware power for a good 5/6 year life cycle.

I don't see how hardware power has anything to do with how long a console lasts ...

The difference in quality of graphics and processing power between the N64 and Playstation was huge but the playstation continued to sell (and have Million selling games) years after the N64 was discontinued; following up on that the XBox and Gamecube both had processing power advantages over the PS2 yet had much shorter lifespans.

Certainly, the difference in processing power between the Wii and PS3/XBox 360 is very large but so is the price difference. Eventually (say 2009/2010) the Wii will probably be $99 (with Wii Sports) While Microsoft is still trying to sell the XBox 360 for $200 (or more) and the PS3 is $300 (or more); there are far more people in the world who are willing to spend $99 on a console than are willing to spend $299 on a console.

 

lol you cant be serious.  Even Nintendo fanboys should by now have accepted the fact that the reason for N64 failure was the dumb decision to use cartridges, Nintendos greed = cartridges = no 3rd party support = N64 failure .  While PS2 games stand toe to toe with anything on xbox or GC, no sane person can say the same about wii games and PS3 or 360 games. 

Why even buy a wii if a PS2 is half the price and has same quality games ? wont there be more people willing to spend $49 on a PS2 when $99 on a wii if its all about price ?

 

 

 

 


Playstation 2 will never reach $49.99, because it will die, way before the Wii even has a chance to reach $99.99.



HappySqurriel said:
Blue3 said:
Probably right. Wii lacks the hardware power for a good 5/6 year life cycle.

I don't see how hardware power has anything to do with how long a console lasts ...

The difference in quality of graphics and processing power between the N64 and Playstation was huge but the playstation continued to sell (and have Million selling games) years after the N64 was discontinued; following up on that the XBox and Gamecube both had processing power advantages over the PS2 yet had much shorter lifespans.

Certainly, the difference in processing power between the Wii and PS3/XBox 360 is very large but so is the price difference. Eventually (say 2009/2010) the Wii will probably be $99 (with Wii Sports) While Microsoft is still trying to sell the XBox 360 for $200 (or more) and the PS3 is $300 (or more); there are far more people in the world who are willing to spend $99 on a console than are willing to spend $299 on a console.

Playstation ($299) > Nintendo 64 ($199)

Playstation 2 ($299) > Gamecube ($199)

Price??? No...



tmbh said:

I have to agree with HappySqurrie!!


This is a price war!

Everyone can afford a Wii (even if they can't get hold of one) and it appeals to a bigger customer base.

 PS3 certainly has a huge fanbase from PS2 owners wanting to upgrade but with its current price and lack of games its gonna struggle.  I dont expect to see a price drop for a while,  cheaper manufacturing costs will help Sony loose less money and a price cut could be here by end of the year in time for xmas but I would'nt be suprised if it didnt come for another 6 months after that!!

This is also a format war.

Betamax was far superior to VHS but look what happened.

Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD could go the same way (I would champion Blu-Ray over HD-DVD basically because it has more storage capacity)

But what is the difference between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD?  Both formats will play films in the SAME 1080p resolution with uncompressed 5.1 sound (lets not niggle over compression formats etc) the point is they are the same!! There is no difference!!  Its a silly war!!

Betamax and VHS had big quality / resolution differences, VHS was inferior but the point is that there was a clear difference between the formats so consumers knew what they were getting, there was a clear choice.  Same with consoles Wii works on any TV and is affordablebut to take advantage of PS3/XBOX 360 you need to spend hundreds or thousands upgrading your TV for HD and buying a new surround processor for true HD surround sound etc.

And who wants a 1st generation Blu-Ray / HD-DVD drive NOT ME!! 

 There is also much boasting of Blu-Ray software sales trampling HD-DVD but hardware sales are much closer.

 I predict a draw/stalemate dual players will be the best choice!! 

 Console wars will become a more even playground, I dont know who will win outright, the point is the lead of victorous side will be significantly less than what Sony has had with its last two consoles.


This is barely a price war, and a format war. The lower price of the Sega Dreamcast never saved it from the Playstation 2. Most People didn't buy the Sega CD for the CD player, and the Xbox for the DVD player. They were both just bonuses. This is more of a game war, and console war, than anything else.



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albionus said:
tmbh said:

I have to agree with HappySqurrie!!


This is a price war!

Everyone can afford a Wii (even if they can't get hold of one) and it appeals to a bigger customer base.

 PS3 certainly has a huge fanbase from PS2 owners wanting to upgrade but with its current price and lack of games its gonna struggle.  I dont expect to see a price drop for a while,  cheaper manufacturing costs will help Sony loose less money and a price cut could be here by end of the year in time for xmas but I would'nt be suprised if it didnt come for another 6 months after that!!

This is also a format war.

Betamax was far superior to VHS but look what happened.

Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD could go the same way (I would champion Blu-Ray over HD-DVD basically because it has more storage capacity)

But what is the difference between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD?  Both formats will play films in the SAME 1080p resolution with uncompressed 5.1 sound (lets not niggle over compression formats etc) the point is they are the same!! There is no difference!!  Its a silly war!!

Betamax and VHS had big quality / resolution differences, VHS was inferior but the point is that there was a clear difference between the formats so consumers knew what they were getting, there was a clear choice.  Same with consoles Wii works on any TV and is affordablebut to take advantage of PS3/XBOX 360 you need to spend hundreds or thousands upgrading your TV for HD and buying a new surround processor for true HD surround sound etc.

And who wants a 1st generation Blu-Ray / HD-DVD drive NOT ME!! 

 There is also much boasting of Blu-Ray software sales trampling HD-DVD but hardware sales are much closer.

 I predict a draw/stalemate dual players will be the best choice!! 

 Console wars will become a more even playground, I dont know who will win outright, the point is the lead of victorous side will be significantly less than what Sony has had with its last two consoles.

Well HDDVD has an advantage in stand alone players, but I think BluRay has around a 10:1 advantage overall because of the PS3.  Even with that advantage movie sales are only 3:2 in favor of BluRay at the moment.  Although total sales are still so extremely low (a fraction of what big DVD movies sell in a day) that many of those BluRay "sales" could be movies given away with PS3 bundles.  I think the bigger question is will Apple come out of nowhere and sucker punch Sony and MS the way Nintendo did.  Sony and MS had this big huge expensive console war planned until Nintendo stole the market with a cheap market friendly device.  I wonder if Apple TV will have to same effect to Sony and MS' big huge expensive format war.  Perhaps instead of a PS3 or 360 at the center of most peoples entertainment centers there will be two small white boxes .

 


Apple was already in the console war a long time ago with the Apple Pippin. One thing I can tell you is that, it wasn't pippin... It failed...



Blue3 said:
HappySqurriel said:
Blue3 said:
Probably right. Wii lacks the hardware power for a good 5/6 year life cycle.

I don't see how hardware power has anything to do with how long a console lasts ...

The difference in quality of graphics and processing power between the N64 and Playstation was huge but the playstation continued to sell (and have Million selling games) years after the N64 was discontinued; following up on that the XBox and Gamecube both had processing power advantages over the PS2 yet had much shorter lifespans.

Certainly, the difference in processing power between the Wii and PS3/XBox 360 is very large but so is the price difference. Eventually (say 2009/2010) the Wii will probably be $99 (with Wii Sports) While Microsoft is still trying to sell the XBox 360 for $200 (or more) and the PS3 is $300 (or more); there are far more people in the world who are willing to spend $99 on a console than are willing to spend $299 on a console.

 

lol you cant be serious.  Even Nintendo fanboys should by now have accepted the fact that the reason for N64 failure was the dumb decision to use cartridges, Nintendos greed = cartridges = no 3rd party support = N64 failure .  While PS2 games stand toe to toe with anything on xbox or GC, no sane person can say the same about wii games and PS3 or 360 games. 

Why even buy a wii if a PS2 is half the price and has same quality games ? wont there be more people willing to spend $49 on a PS2 when $99 on a wii if its all about price ?

 

 

 

 

First party games have always been so much better than shitty third party games. Most of the famous, awesome, games, have always been first party games. I hate third party games. I don't own a single one. Most of them are just stupid sports games, and movie-games. The best franchises have always been first party. I wish third party games never existed. I'm glad that the Nintendo 64 didn't allow that much crap to litter its video game library. We don't need crappy third party games. You want to play "Shrek the Third" on the Xbox 360, or "Twilight Princess" on the Wii? Games with the best reviews, and best selling games, have almost always been first party titles, only. Third party games only make finding good games, in video game stores, harder. Sure, some third party games were good, but most of them suck... Badly... More so than first party games.


Those movie-games are so predictable. I'm serious, if I ever see Ratatouille (a new, animated movie), as a movie-game, I am going to destroy my video game collection. I hate those third party assholes, and their stupid movie-games. They think that just because a movie may have been successful, that a game, based on that movie, will also be good. They are made, purely for money, which is why they always suck. Worst thing is, stupid people buy them, because they think, "Hey, the movie was good, so I guess the game will have to be good." And those idiots, buy the game, instead of a Zelda, or Halo game, start playing it, pretend that they like it, and end up doing some stupid, pathetic missions. I can already see the movie, Ratatouille, become a game. I know it's going to happen. It has to happen. It's a rule. Ever animated movie, must become a game. One day, I'm going to go to a store, and it's going to be looking at me, with its total awfulness. They'll be sure to use the exact same picture on the game case, as on the movie case. Damn those movie-games. I hate them so much!



Alex, I'm as annoyed by how it appears to be impossible to copy/paste many separate quote fields into a single post, but could you please try not to post seven times in a row? Even cutting down the huge amount of text you quote with every single post would really help.

Thanks.




"What asinine speculation. Is the Wii really that much of a threat to anyone's ego here that they have to rationalize it by claiming it will only suck up non-important or irrelevant demographics of the consumer base? It's no more fanboyish than saying, "The Wii is only stealing away the PS3's gradeschool and toddler demographic with their continued strangle hold on kiddy crap, lawl.""

==> I think nobody has claimed this, sorry,
Who claimed that wii was stealing PS3 gamers ?
Put a name next time.

"May I also point out the childish elitism of using such immature words as "Non-Gamer", "True-Gamer", "Hardcore-Gamer", etc to rationalize your console's demographic. Do you really need to justify your choice in consoles so forcefully as to think of yourself as the only type gamer that matters or what can be considered a true gamer? Why not just start giving the games "Penis raitings" to better illustrate the size of your ego's cock while you're at it?"

==> but is is because there are a lot of different gamer style that we try to create category to understand the things: "Non-Gamer", "True-Gamer", "Hardcore-Gamer",
I consider that a part of the wii owners are "non classical gamer" (like a woman friend of me that know nothing to console), that is not bad or good ...
Put name on group help us to talk about them ...

"If the Wii is only stealing away the PlayStation's "Non-Gamer" demographic then I guess 90% of PlayStation's original demographic was "Non-Gamer" as the PS3's sales keep dropping while Wii's keep going strong."

==> well, 90% ???
considering the numbers PS2 owners (120M) and the numbers of wii owners (8M), you have to make some progress in arythmetic ...see the end of my post !

" Seriously, I don't care what console you choose to back but if you're going to make excuses for it at least try and keep them in line with the given facts around us."

==> same for u !!! so easy to give lesson to other people ...

"libellude and tiachopvutru: I don't think most Wii owners are people wouldn't ever buy another console, or even casual gamers yet. It's still so new and hard to find that most people who have it are gamer geeks like us who saw it on the internet, and just had to get one. =P
The Wii will definitely get vast amounts of owners from the not yet gaming part of the population, but already most "hardcore" gamers are converting as well. "

==> hum, I don't think so,
I don't speak about myself, I speak about PS/Xbox gamers in general that constitue the 120M basic/classic market :


It is easy to see that 3M PS3 + 10X box360 + 8 Wii = 21 < 120 M PS2


(to Gballzack : i m sorry, but, to understand this, you have to know "how to count"' and I must say that it is easier for US, the male gamers, cause we have trained a lot mesuring our my penis size. Try to get some boyfriend, he will show u how it functions ^^)

Let's say that there is still 80 M of classical gamers (PS2 owner in majority) that don't have bought a next gen console. These guys want to play to GTA/Halo3/FF/MGS etc ...the sequel of their favorite game
these games are not going to be released on Wii !
Knowing this, it is easy to see that people, EVEN IF they love wii, love wii game and get it, will have to buy another console, something that can play the last GTA/Halo/GT sequel ...
I think that slowly, with the help of price reduction, people will try to purchase the PS3/Xbox360 console, that is all I want to say.

Of course, if the GT/MGS/FF/Halo are going to be released on the wii too then things will be, for sure, completely in favor of the wii
but for the moment, "classical gamer" still show some big interest on the 2 most expensive console : PS3 and Xbox360.

(just consider this : the number of Wii troll << PS3/Xbox360 troll)

 (to Gballzack, this "==>" is NOT a penis in erection !!!

this "==>" is suppose to be an arrow, I use it to make my post clearer (hope it helps))

 



Time to Work !