The recent release of NPD US sales for the month of January 2008, has raised some eyebrows. And for good reason. All 3 of our consoles in the 7th generation were within 40,000 sales of each other. What does this month mean? Are things really starting to change or are people overreacting. Find out in this in depth analysis of the recent numbers.

Now for reference of course, lets look at those sales:

January 2008
# Wii - 274,000
# PlayStation 3 - 269,000
# Xbox 360 - 230,000

Now its important to note that January 2008 was a 4 week tracking month. Thus a comparison to last year’s sales in the same month won’t be as accurate, as it was a 5 week tracking month. But we’ll do it anyways:

January 2007
# Wii - 436,000
# Xbox 360 - 294,000
# Playstation 3 - 244,000

Now what does this show us. It first shows us that the PS3 weekly average in January 2008 is much higher than what it was in 2007. It jumped from about 48,000 a week to 67,000 a week. It’s also important to note that the Wii weekly average is way down from last year in January. From 87,000 to 68,000. And just as things keep getting interesting, the 360 average is almost exactly the same year over.

So what does that mean. Well looking at it blindly, or without taking in any other outside knowledge, it would lead us to believe that 360 sales are at a constant pace or unchanging, Wii is faltering, and PS3 is gaining speed. Well hell the analysts might be right about Wii failing. Of course this simply isn’t the case.

We must take into acount that Wii has been in really really really short supplies since the holiday season. I mean some retailers didn’t even get their first shipment of Wiis til mid January after the holidays. So Wii sales are explainable but still in question. How is it in January after launch they were able to put more Wiis in stores but after holidays when productions are increasing they put only 3/4 of what they did last year. We know this can’t be because Nintendo has been allocating shipments to Japan for the Brawl release, as according to Media Create, there was only about a 20%-30% increase in sales.

So what is going on here Nintendo. 1.8 million produced a month and yet only 274,000 of that made it to January in America, the Wii’s largest market. Well I have a theory. It is quite possible that Nintendo is stockpiling. Yes this early in the year. I think they have kept their Europe/Other shipments steady and increased Japan slightly but dramatically dropped American shipments to start stockpiling. Stockpile for what you ask? Well let’s see Brawl releases early March, Mario Kart in the spring, and Wii Fit shortly there after. Nintendo has a hell of a lot coming soon. So what they are probably doing is planning a huge February, followed by a massive March and will continue to keep it at high rates til summer. A theory, and we’ll see how it plays out.

Of course this entire time, no one should have been worried about Wii sales anyways, as we know what’s going on with them anyways. The worry comes from that of the 360. MS recently responded to NPD’s numbers, stating that the 360 has been in very short supply for November. But the weird thing is, they sold pretty much the same amount each week this January that they did las January. Meaning demand hasn’t changed to offset supply, which should still be about the same. It’s not like they sold drastically much more this holiday season than they did last year.

I see that coverup as quite phony. I think MS is trying to pull a fast one on us, which is actually a failing brand. MS hit its last high point in December 2007, but the brand is starting to fail due to Wii’s popularity and a rising PS3. This is definetly a show of mega concern for MS, who in there desperation, most of their response to NPD was about software sales as they know they are in trouble.

Moving onto PS3, this is definetly a brighter note for them, however we don’t know the extent. Because factually we know they are the only ones that were in fully supply during January, there is no telling how that 269k was actually split up. Hell the first week could have seen 100 of that sold, and the other 3 weeks split up 169k. That would actually put them closer back to where they were last year.

I don’t think this data is anything to jump for joy over. And actually it might pose concern for the PS3. Why? Well let’s face it Wii’s are scarace and only able to sell what’s there, while PS3 is in basically limitless supply, but it’s not even able to top it, let alone blow it away. Now give credit to the Wii where credit is due, but PS3 should been able to outsell Wii this month. But it didn’t. This most likely has to do with PS3 being a popular brand which sold during the holidays. In that one week in January that ecompassed somewhat holiday sales, is where PS3 sold its best. For the rest of the weeks it has been on the downhill. Any extra sales have come from buyers 360 is losing. This is really not such a great thing for PS3 in the long run. Now either I’ll be proved right or wrong in February, but I have a feeling that January was just a fluke for PS3.

So in the grand scheme of things where does this leave us. Well it leaves us with a Wii in desperate need of shipments, a 360 in desperate need of brand pushers, and a PS3 in desperate need of consistent buyers. Right now Wii is not to worry about, but 360 and PS3 fans need to show some concern. Although this might be seen as a small victory for PS3 fans, there are long days ahead of you. Even if this one victory isn’t a fluke, remember you are close to the Wii because the Wii is in short supply. Once you see what your up against when in fully supply, you need to wake up and smell the coffee. And if my theory is right, you need to really start expanding your message outside of the hardcore and get your brand as popular as Wii.

If your a 360 fan you should be worrying the most. Shortages or not, what many have predicted is happening. And that is, 360 wouldn’t be able to survive, even in America, once PS3 price gets down and Wii brand gets too popular. It would sooner or later be pushed out of the mix, just like it has in everywhere else in the world. And if this really was due to shortages, then we’ll see how February goes. But 230k is some pretty scary sales coming off a good holiday season.

In conclusion, remember this is just one month. One month never makes or breaks anyone. And with both MS and Nintendo reporting shortages, these numbers could mean absolutely nothing. The main thing to do is wait til February 2008 NPD numbers, where we know at least MS won’t have to worry about 360 shortages, see if PS3 was a fluke or not, and hopefully show the competition a Wii at full force without shortages.

The year is still young, and nothing has been changed from last year, but January has definetly been a groundbreaking month at setting a standard: that 2008 is going to be a crazy year in the gaming world.

Once again Link to the Article on My Site