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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Prediction: Which console will be in first place by the end of 2014?

 

Which console will have the most Lifetime sales by the end of 2014?

Wii U 210 25.55%
 
PS4 569 69.22%
 
Xbox One 42 5.11%
 
Total:821
small44 on 04 January 2014
Legendary_W said:
small44 said:
Legendary_W said:
small44 said:
Legendary_W said:
small44 said:
Legendary_W said:
If there's something I've learnt about sales in this very website, is that we never know what to expect. Sales always take weird twists.
Looking at the current situation it's logical to assume PS4 will be the winner, but the real question is, will it be able to keep it's momentum? Will Wii U be able to make some sort of comeback (I'm not saying an epic one, just one good enough to compete properly against PS4)? What will happen with Xbox One? What about handhelds? I don't think that PS Vita will surpass 3DS but what if it suddenly starts selling great and 3DS sales lower making the gap between them decrease at a slow but steady rate?

Now, seriously people, we don't know what to truly expect specially since we have no idea what will companies do. Wii U + 3DS bundle? PS4 + Vita bundle? New services? What will happen when the Steam Machines come out and how will it affect the consoles sales? So much to think about.

If wii u manage to compete with ps4 it will be one of the most epic comeback but it imposible without 3rd party support same for psv it won't surpass Nintendo 3ds without 3ed party support.

Like I said, there's just so much to think about. We won't know how long will PS4 keep up these sales. Many people seem to believe it will always sell at these levels, but the truth is that we won't know 'till we see it for ourselves. Maybe it was just the initial hype + holidays, maybe  the console really is that convincing as for people to buy it in masses at anytime of the year, so as I said we won't know for sure until numbers speak. We also don't know what will happen with Wii U. Miyamoto's new IP can be either an epic fail or an epic win, X looks very promising, Mario Kart and Smash Bros. will be decisive, Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze and Yarn Yoshi aren't system sellers at all but are definitely strong additions to the catalogue. I'll just go ahead and quote myself: Sales always take weird twists. Personally, I'd like them all to do at least well enough to make profit.


3rd party is what make a console successfull not first party,Nintendo first party didn't save Gamecube ,the lack of support kill it,Wii is a exception dispite the lack of 3rd party support casual gamers make it succesfull,casual don't seems interested on Wii u and 3rd party will not support wii u because people would prefer to play their game on ps4/xboxone because they are more powerfull.


But if those first party titles allows the Wii U to sell more hardware then the userbase will be bigger and third-partys will be able sell more, so at least they will make a port for it since there are bigger chances for it to make a profit. The other positive result will be the  fact that since the community is bigger, in order to maintain a good image the games for Wii U will be taken more seriously and will be better optimized and have better support (DLCs and such). About the power thing, in that case everyone should simply dispose their console and buy a high-end PC. More expensive? Yes. More powerful and updated? Yes. You get what you pay for.

A bigger userbase won't chance anything if those new peoples aren't interested on those games or prefer to buy them on ps4/xboxone.

Aren't pc got games later then console version and with console you don't need to change ram and graphics card to play all the games i think that's why some people prefer consoles over pc.

I am sorry, but unfortunately I do not understand how can you state that a bigger userbase won't change a thing. It's simple logic, a bigger userbase means more people out there to buy games, and if you do proper marketing your game can reach these people, resulting in a more probable comercial success. A 5m userbase isn't the same as a 20 million userbase.

Sometimes, yes. PC users have to wait more as it's the case right now with GTA V, but at the same time, most of the games release at the same time in all platforms. 8 GB RAM is enough for gaming, and then you just have to worry about getting a good graphic card and CPU and once you do, then you're all set for 1080@60fps. But hey, this is a thread about consoles sales predictions for 2014, we don't want to de-rail the thread with a PC and consoles power discussion, do we? That said, we should focus on the thread's topic.

Back to topic, and particularly our discussion, I believe that if third partys did quality software for Nintendo and cleaned their names they would break the "TP dev makes a cheap (and so, inferior) port to prevent risk of losing money -> TP Game port sells bad -> Repeat from step 1" cycle and then they would sell well enough. I am not saying ALL companies are like that, but most of them are, and so, third-party games in general sell bad because of this bad reputation. Again, the logic is simple: Who would buy an inferior (Not just graphically) version of a game?

God of war 3 sold better then any other God of war on ps2 despite ps2 install base is bigger,GT3 sold better then GT4 even if install base was bigger when Gran Turismo come that means a bigger userbase dosn't always lead to better sales, i don't know how marketing will change something why people will buy an inferior version of the games unstead of the superior version.

It is you who bring pc in the subject not me.

How could third party make not inferior games on wii u when ps4 and xboxone are most powerfull,if you don't talk aboutgraphics so you talk about what are multipltform games on wii u had less content then on ps4 and xbox one?



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m

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Seece on 04 January 2014
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:
zorg1000 said:

U dont think Mario Kart can sell 5m in 8 months? Mario Kart 7 sold just under 4m in five weeks 

On what userbase?

Also what did SMG1 and 2 do on their first weeks and on what userbases?


By the end of 2011 3DS had an install base of about 13m

That's 3DS not WIiU, what did Mario Kart Wii do?

Edit - Just checked, 3.5m on a userbase of 25.5m~ (First month)



 

zorg1000 on 04 January 2014
Seece said:
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:
zorg1000 said:

U dont think Mario Kart can sell 5m in 8 months? Mario Kart 7 sold just under 4m in five weeks 

On what userbase?

Also what did SMG1 and 2 do on their first weeks and on what userbases?


By the end of 2011 3DS had an install base of about 13m

That's 3DS not WIiU, what did Mario Kart Wii do?

Edit - Just checked, 3.5m on a userbase of 25.5m~ (First month)

Oh u mean what will Wii U userbase be by end of 2014? Id say 10m is a resonable guess, 12m at the absolute most.

So Mario Kart Wii and 7 each sold about 4m in five weeks, I think 5m in 8-9 monthsis possible



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

PenguinZ on 04 January 2014
zorg1000 said:

Oh u mean what will Wii U userbase be by end of 2014? Id say 10m is a resonable guess, 12m at the absolute most.

So Mario Kart Wii and 7 each sold about 4m in five weeks, I think 5m in 8-9 monthsis possible

5 Million would be amazing on a userbase of 10 million, especially in that timeframe... Is MK8 being bundled with the Wii U in that prediction?



Current gaming platforms - Switch, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Wii U, New 3DS, PC

Seece on 04 January 2014
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:
zorg1000 said:

U dont think Mario Kart can sell 5m in 8 months? Mario Kart 7 sold just under 4m in five weeks 

On what userbase?

Also what did SMG1 and 2 do on their first weeks and on what userbases?


By the end of 2011 3DS had an install base of about 13m

That's 3DS not WIiU, what did Mario Kart Wii do?

Edit - Just checked, 3.5m on a userbase of 25.5m~ (First month)

Oh u mean what will Wii U userbase be by end of 2014? Id say 10m is a resonable guess, 12m at the absolute most.

So Mario Kart Wii and 7 each sold about 4m in five weeks, I think 5m in 8-9 monthsis possible

We'll see, did NSMB do better on Wii unbundled? I know they got bundled at different times though.  Of course if Nintendo bundle it will do very well.



 

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bananaking21 on 04 January 2014
Mummelmann said:
Zero999 said:
Seece said:
Zero999 said:

Wii U hands down. ps4 second, xone third.

Dat 400% YOY increase you're expecting.

Sorry to burst your bubble but WiiU will be last by 2015.

back to the percentage fallacy. at least you fixed the number this time.

sorry to burst your bubble but all things considered, even if someone believes ps4 will be first, he/she shouldn't think it will be third in 2014. not with the info we have.

Oh, all these fallacies, just like mine and my darned alternate realities. Posted this one on your wall recently as a friendly reminder and you deleted it, of course;

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5845237

My post-adjustment numbers were also deleted. You're not even trying any more, are you? If you're gonna keep putting up this show in 2014, it's going to be a long and difficult year for you in here.


thats one glorious, epic burn. probably the best i ever seen. bravo! it was hilarious reading that comment!



zorg1000 on 05 January 2014
PenguinZ said:
zorg1000 said:

Oh u mean what will Wii U userbase be by end of 2014? Id say 10m is a resonable guess, 12m at the absolute most.

So Mario Kart Wii and 7 each sold about 4m in five weeks, I think 5m in 8-9 monthsis possible

5 Million would be amazing on a userbase of 10 million, especially in that timeframe... Is MK8 being bundled with the Wii U in that prediction?


I imagine it will be bundled at some point, if there smart they will right off the bat but if not then I assume it will be the big holiday bundle.

But NSMBU is over 3m on a 5m install base so 5m on a 10m isnt out of the question.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 05 January 2014
Seece said:
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:
zorg1000 said:

U dont think Mario Kart can sell 5m in 8 months? Mario Kart 7 sold just under 4m in five weeks 

On what userbase?

Also what did SMG1 and 2 do on their first weeks and on what userbases?


By the end of 2011 3DS had an install base of about 13m

That's 3DS not WIiU, what did Mario Kart Wii do?

Edit - Just checked, 3.5m on a userbase of 25.5m~ (First month)

Oh u mean what will Wii U userbase be by end of 2014? Id say 10m is a resonable guess, 12m at the absolute most.

So Mario Kart Wii and 7 each sold about 4m in five weeks, I think 5m in 8-9 monthsis possible

We'll see, did NSMB do better on Wii unbundled? I know they got bundled at different times though.  Of course if Nintendo bundle it will do very well.

Im not sure what ur asking lol could u rephrase for me please



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Legendary_W on 05 January 2014
small44 said:
Legendary_W said:
small44 said:
Legendary_W said:
small44 said:
Legendary_W said:
small44 said:
Legendary_W said:
If there's something I've learnt about sales in this very website, is that we never know what to expect. Sales always take weird twists.
Looking at the current situation it's logical to assume PS4 will be the winner, but the real question is, will it be able to keep it's momentum? Will Wii U be able to make some sort of comeback (I'm not saying an epic one, just one good enough to compete properly against PS4)? What will happen with Xbox One? What about handhelds? I don't think that PS Vita will surpass 3DS but what if it suddenly starts selling great and 3DS sales lower making the gap between them decrease at a slow but steady rate?

Now, seriously people, we don't know what to truly expect specially since we have no idea what will companies do. Wii U + 3DS bundle? PS4 + Vita bundle? New services? What will happen when the Steam Machines come out and how will it affect the consoles sales? So much to think about.

If wii u manage to compete with ps4 it will be one of the most epic comeback but it imposible without 3rd party support same for psv it won't surpass Nintendo 3ds without 3ed party support.

Like I said, there's just so much to think about. We won't know how long will PS4 keep up these sales. Many people seem to believe it will always sell at these levels, but the truth is that we won't know 'till we see it for ourselves. Maybe it was just the initial hype + holidays, maybe  the console really is that convincing as for people to buy it in masses at anytime of the year, so as I said we won't know for sure until numbers speak. We also don't know what will happen with Wii U. Miyamoto's new IP can be either an epic fail or an epic win, X looks very promising, Mario Kart and Smash Bros. will be decisive, Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze and Yarn Yoshi aren't system sellers at all but are definitely strong additions to the catalogue. I'll just go ahead and quote myself: Sales always take weird twists. Personally, I'd like them all to do at least well enough to make profit.


3rd party is what make a console successfull not first party,Nintendo first party didn't save Gamecube ,the lack of support kill it,Wii is a exception dispite the lack of 3rd party support casual gamers make it succesfull,casual don't seems interested on Wii u and 3rd party will not support wii u because people would prefer to play their game on ps4/xboxone because they are more powerfull.


But if those first party titles allows the Wii U to sell more hardware then the userbase will be bigger and third-partys will be able sell more, so at least they will make a port for it since there are bigger chances for it to make a profit. The other positive result will be the  fact that since the community is bigger, in order to maintain a good image the games for Wii U will be taken more seriously and will be better optimized and have better support (DLCs and such). About the power thing, in that case everyone should simply dispose their console and buy a high-end PC. More expensive? Yes. More powerful and updated? Yes. You get what you pay for.

A bigger userbase won't chance anything if those new peoples aren't interested on those games or prefer to buy them on ps4/xboxone.

Aren't pc got games later then console version and with console you don't need to change ram and graphics card to play all the games i think that's why some people prefer consoles over pc.

I am sorry, but unfortunately I do not understand how can you state that a bigger userbase won't change a thing. It's simple logic, a bigger userbase means more people out there to buy games, and if you do proper marketing your game can reach these people, resulting in a more probable comercial success. A 5m userbase isn't the same as a 20 million userbase.

Sometimes, yes. PC users have to wait more as it's the case right now with GTA V, but at the same time, most of the games release at the same time in all platforms. 8 GB RAM is enough for gaming, and then you just have to worry about getting a good graphic card and CPU and once you do, then you're all set for 1080@60fps. But hey, this is a thread about consoles sales predictions for 2014, we don't want to de-rail the thread with a PC and consoles power discussion, do we? That said, we should focus on the thread's topic.

Back to topic, and particularly our discussion, I believe that if third partys did quality software for Nintendo and cleaned their names they would break the "TP dev makes a cheap (and so, inferior) port to prevent risk of losing money -> TP Game port sells bad -> Repeat from step 1" cycle and then they would sell well enough. I am not saying ALL companies are like that, but most of them are, and so, third-party games in general sell bad because of this bad reputation. Again, the logic is simple: Who would buy an inferior (Not just graphically) version of a game?

God of war 3 sold better then any other God of war on ps2 despite ps2 install base is bigger,GT3 sold better then GT4 even if install base was bigger when Gran Turismo come that means a bigger userbase dosn't always lead to better sales, i don't know how marketing will change something why people will buy an inferior version of the games unstead of the superior version.

It is you who bring pc in the subject not me.

How could third party make not inferior games on wii u when ps4 and xboxone are most powerfull,if you don't talk aboutgraphics so you talk about what are multipltform games on wii u had less content then on ps4 and xbox one?


You make a point, but the difference is God of War 3 had a lot more hype and besides, the huge success of PS2 is the fact that if was easy  to use pirate games on it. Without piracy, PS2 wouldn't have gotten so far. Trust me, here in Argentina everyone has it but I've yet to know anyone who  bought a single legitimate copy of a game. Same with Wii and Xbox360, unfortunately peopel in my country has the "Why pay for something if you can get it for free?" mentallity, totally ignoring the fact that games take a lot of money to develop and thus not thinking on the hard work someone else put on it. So yeah, PS2's install base is an exception due to the high piracy rate.

Oh my. I mentioned the PC, you answered about it, I shared my opinion with you and recommended not de-railing the topic. That's it.

I am not talking about raw power, I am talking about support. Why would anyone buy the Wii U version of a game if there will be no updates, no patches, no DLC and sometimes even no online mode while PS360/PS4/XBO versions do have all of these? If Wii U version had all of it + Something exclusive about the gamepad to make it a bit more atractive, then they would sell way better. No risk, no gain.



Mummelmann on 05 January 2014
bananaking21 said:
Mummelmann said:
Zero999 said:
Seece said:
Zero999 said:

Wii U hands down. ps4 second, xone third.

Dat 400% YOY increase you're expecting.

Sorry to burst your bubble but WiiU will be last by 2015.

back to the percentage fallacy. at least you fixed the number this time.

sorry to burst your bubble but all things considered, even if someone believes ps4 will be first, he/she shouldn't think it will be third in 2014. not with the info we have.

Oh, all these fallacies, just like mine and my darned alternate realities. Posted this one on your wall recently as a friendly reminder and you deleted it, of course;

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5845237

My post-adjustment numbers were also deleted. You're not even trying any more, are you? If you're gonna keep putting up this show in 2014, it's going to be a long and difficult year for you in here.


thats one glorious, epic burn. probably the best i ever seen. bravo! it was hilarious reading that comment!

To be fair; my peak week numbers will be off by 120-70k when all said and done...