PlayStation 4 Vs Xbox One: Why The Most Talked About Console May Not Be The Winner

For gamers waiting for the next generation of consoles, we’re finally into the home stretch. Sony's Sony's PlayStation 4 launch is just a week away on Nov. 15 and Microsoft's MSFT +0.21% Xbox One launches a week after on Nov. 22. In early buzz, more people are talking about Sony’s new entry. But even with less of the conversation, Microsoft could still finish on top, according to new data from several social media trackers.

By the raw numbers, PlayStation–which was announced weeks earlier than Xbox and launches first–has gotten the majority of attention on social media. According to millions of social media posts from the last three weeks of Oct. crunched by social listener LeadSift, 1.7 million people tweeted about PlayStation 4, versus just 1.1 million for Xbox One. And of those people who declared their intent to purchase within those posts, users said they planned to buy a PlayStation 2.6 times more frequently than they did Xbox.

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But several recent trends in the data could spell good news for Microsoft. Since LeadSift first examined the data in Aug., when PlayStation was blowing Xbox out of the water, the company’s found that the percentage of people discussing the consoles who labeled themselves as undecided shoppers has skyrocketed, from 17.1% this summer to 28.4% by Oct. 30. Xbox has recovered in the tone of its buzz, too, from twice as many negative mentions in Aug. to a level playing field going into the month of launch.

The biggest gainer in recent weeks, however, may not be either Microsoft or Sony at all, but Valve, which announced its own Steam Machine console in late Sept. Enterprise software company SDL uses a “product commitment score” to rank shoppers’ intent to purchase and interest in one brand based on what they’re saying on social media, message boards and other public places on the Web. According to SDL’s data, Xbox overtook PlayStation by that score in the last week of Sept., but the biggest gainer last month has been Valve as the freshest and most disruptive option.

In the battle of the heavyweights, however, SDL believes the data points to Xbox One winning out by replicating what worked for Microsoft in the last holiday season: targeting non-gamer shoppers.

“PlayStation is strongly winning the gamers, but our hypothesis is that Xbox One is learning from the lessons they learned last year of playing to the dual market,” says Liz High, a consultant at SDL. That means mothers and other non-gamers buying consoles as gifts, as well as families looking more for an entertainment device than just a pure gaming console.

Still, SDL’s own data suggests the PlayStation is “winning by a mile” when it comes to volume of conversation. According to SDL, part of PlayStation’s early lead comes from Xbox’s public relations nightmare when it initially announced several features that were rejected by gamers, including an always-online requirement and a system to eliminate play of used games. Chatter around the Xbox and its corresponding brand score rebounded and eventually caught up with PlayStation as Microsoft issued a public ‘mea culpa’ and reversed its plans.

 If last year’s data is any indication, there will be three critical crunch moments for each console brand: Black Friday, a mid-Dec. peak for well-prepared shoppers, and then a last minute rush a couple days before Christmas for those doing things at the wire.

And even though PlayStation will get an extra week to sell consoles and build an early lead, SDL is predicting from its data that Xbox One will end up outselling its rival by 1.5 to 1 for the holiday season. That’s less than how Xbox 360 outsold PS3 last year, but still a lead that goes against what you’d expect based on the relative amount of social buzz for each console so far.

It also flies in the face of many analyst predictions of recent weeks, although more are beginning to buy into a Microsoft win, like Baird analyst Colin Sebastian, who recently predicted each to sell between 2.5 million and 3 million units this year worldwide. This new generation, however, may still disappoint compared to Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3.

So is there anything Microsoft or Sony could do to try to move the needle in these final days pre-launch? One tactic that worked well for Microsoft with the last generation is ‘bundling,’ the packaging of a console with an initial pack of games and other accessories. It’s tactic that High says Sony has traditionally kept at arms length. But it can make the difference with last-minute holiday shoppers who can be swayed by the offer of a special value.

Sony could also benefit from fresher advertising, as its main television campaigns for PlayStation have run for weeks. And its embracing of ‘the gamer’ means it could also make up ground in non-gaming retail locations like big box stores.

Of course, it’s possible that SDL gets it wrong and the raw volume of PlayStation chatter ends up telling the story. SDL says that as the sales race hasn’t begun, pole position isn’t fixed–and PlayStation 4 is leading in pre-salesthat skew towards hardcore gamers over holiday buyers.

“Right now they are neck and neck,” High says. “But based on all the activity, we expect Xbox to move ahead.”

Source : http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2013/11/08/ps4-vs-xbox-one-social-media-winner/