They will have about 4 exclusives next year (AAA big disk titles)..so thats one every 3 months... that's enough imho in terms of exclusives???  there are many other games coming out... dont know why people are expecting either MS or Sony to just pump out so many games that A. they damage their own exclusives or B. they damage the third party sales.

I think sales will stay ok for a while just because its been 7 odd years since the last gen, think that will make a big difference. Infamous will boost sales, Driveclub out early in the year, then WatchDogs, ... Destiny will be a big title imho... then we head towards the Winter time with some most likely big titles, such as TheOrder (hopefully), and a NaughtyDog game, .... then we should be expecting 3rd party titles such as TheDevision, and others that are yet to be announced...

All of these games - including 3rd party will boost next gen consoles. Personally I see 2014 being a very good year for the next gen consoles.

That's a fair point but considering that Watch Dogs for the PS4 was clearly the dominant version and the PS4 version of Destiny appears to be favored over all others, I think we can look at that as an indication that people are wanting to move on and the next gen versions will have no problem selling. Those aren't even the only multiplatform games that have been showing early favortism for the PS4 and X1 versions.

Well we are purely talking about America in this thread but there will be a jump of course at the launch for Japan.

But nobody is expecting them to pump out AAA titles immediately.  People are just going to wait until that big title comes for them.  

What is the 4 games?  I know InFamous and now DriveClub(Which i already dubbed as something that wont push much hardware).  Is there anything else announced pre-E3?

Your analysis leaves a lot to be desired.

The hardcore early adopters will have a high attach rate with those so we are looking at roughly 2-4m sold after holidays for PS4 and XBO.  The games will still sell as i said the high attach ratio of it being early in the gen, but I'm curious to see if they bring in the customers who decided to not adopt PS4 and XBO early.  

Watch Dogs, Destiny, and even TitanFall are being advertised as next gen games so that could help.  I really hope it does help.

Not really an analysis, more of a discussion but you are more than welcome to discuss with everybody here and agree with people or disagree.  I have never claimed to be an analyst, just stating my opinions.

Well I find debating with people's opinions doesn't ever really produce anything fruitful.

But I digress.

IMO sales dissipates after the holidays because:
1. People are usually broke after the holidays
2. Shipments go way down causing shortages
3. Fewer games are released OVERALL (big titles generally come out, if ever in the early year, in late March)
4. Comparitively, holidays are shopping season while January-March is not.

I completely agree that much of what we're looking at is thanks to the hardcore early adopters. You're right as well in that those three games have been promoted as next gen titles where some others are just being promoted as a game for every platform. I am more optimistic for what we'll see beyond the holidays for both PS4 and X1 thanks to previous Year Ones. The 360 had nearly 10 million consoles by the end of its first 12 months if I'm not mistaken and even then it had to deal with some last gen versions of games potentially taking sales away while also suffering large failure rates. Then ofcourse there was the Wii which exploded but was able to do so on pricepoint and novelty alone. It lacked games for a fair amount of time. I understand that the circumstances for each platform are different but both the 360 and the Wii were staring at hurdles that, by all rights, should have hurt sales but for one reason or the other they did not. I guess the only thing that we can say is that you're taking a more cautious stance while I'm a little more optimistic. Nothing wrong with either view.

I can agree with every one of those points, except for the shortages.  It doesnt help that XBO and PS4 are new with a small library at this point which is what i was saying.  They wont be releasing system sellers for the first 6 months at least.  Sony will have InFamous and XBO will have TitanFall and Kinect Sports Rivals.  And I dont expect KSR to push much until holiday season.  

That's just natural for new consoles though.

When new consoles come out, it's really not about the big games that come out. Most early games are actually really under-quality. We just don't realize it because the new console makes it seem that much better overall. The consoles will sell simply based on their novelty, and the big games that are out will be purchased regardless.

In terms of "system sellers" I don't think anyone buys a console early on because of the games that come out on it. They buy it because of the system. There are a significant number of reasons why people would buy a console that doesn't have the games they want yet.

I think system sellers really only come into play somewhere are year 2 or 3. That's when developers start hitting their stride, inevitable price drop, new features, hype, and viral permeation all come in sync and push a system.