I think it will be really close.  The price difference will really help Sony, but Microsoft still has lots of loyal customers and lots of great exclusives.

It will be interesting to see if Sony could get Gaikai up and running with backwards compatibility for PS3 games, if that will make any difference to their marketshare.

Something like this would be perfect for me. I never felt the need to buy every ps3 game out there and it would give me a chance to get the ps3 games that I missed. I'm not getting a ps4 at launch,but this might make me consider getting a ps4 earlier,then I had planned on.

i wonder.  MS is best in america and america has proven twice now (snes to ps, ps2 to 360) to not be a very loyal market.

i would think in the first year it could do great things.  i mean, destiny looks great and all but there is very little AAA games announced for ps4 or xbone in the january - june time frame.  ps4 has a bunch of indies that may drop in that window but if they could get gaikai up early enough so that dark souls 2 and whatever else is coming to last gen plays on ps4 and round out some greatest hits like TLoU for those that may transition from 360 to ps4 it could do a lot for ps4's first year library.

No such thing as loyalty in America. Just look at history: NES->SNES->PS1->PS2->Wii/XB360->??? 

Even with the SNES "winning" the US, for a while the Genesis was the go to console as well.

To me America is loyal to the coolness factor, so whichever console is seen as the coolest has the best chance at leading the sales.

Interestingly there's no new gadget or HW feature to any of the nexgen consoles to give any of the consoles a coolness boost. Wii U's tablet controller is not that much different to an ordinary tablet. Kinect is a better version of what's on 360, so it's not new and exciting. PS4's DS4 with trackpad is nothing that hasn't been on laptops for over a decade.

Online features have mostly been done on current gen consoles and they're no better than what's available on PC.

So, what makes PS4 or Xb one the cooler console? We already know Wii U came last in a one console race in the coolness stakes.

But now we got accounts and achievements and a social network on you console.

So we'll see how they act with that.

Very possibly they offer the service with PS+ for the PS4.  You get all the games they have on PS+ streamed to your PS4.

Not to go too far off topic, but things are quite different now then before.  There really wasn't much to keep you loyal before.  Now you have achievements / trophies that you may want to build on.  Also, there are clans and other online communities that people may be reluctant to leave.

The $10 upgrade from Activision may also help with this.  This would let you get a copy of CoD on November 5th, play with all of your buddies, and then upgrade to the next gen for $10.  If you switch platforms, then you have to pay an additional $60.

Something like Gaikai could counter this, but I don't think it will be available before sometime in 2014.

having played way too much world of warcraft the only loyalty to a "clan" seems to be your IRL friends. that tie is very strong but so far hasn't shown any particular loyalty gen to gen.  seems like whomever wins early wins big.

it remains to be seen how tied to trophy/achievments people really are.  i personally love them but i get the general impression that most people don't care that much.  i really don't see the $10 upgrades doing anything either.  by the time a non day-1 buyer upgrades to the next gen the next yearly installment of CoD will be out.

..i guess what i'm saying is causals are called casual because they are casual.  the core is commited to their halos or uncharteds but most people don't have that loyalty.  especially those that really only play 3rd party games.