If Sony can produce this many units until launch, I think they will.

I believe by January Sony will have sold around 2.5m PS4s.

I'm still wondering if Sony and MS are going to be able to supply enough for the demand or if a shortage will occur. I would find it hard to believe Sony could have enough PS4's even built by end of year to achieve this...

I'm betting on 2M since japan won't count for this year.

How about this then

Since PS4 already have more than 1M pre-orders.  I think it's going to be higher than 2M.

Sony will sell as many units as they are able to produce.

I'm pretty sure those numbers include japan, wich is out this year. and ps3 also got 1M+ pre orders, doesn't mean much.

edit: as I said, sony could produce 100M by 2013 end, it would still sell around 2 or 3 M.

It proves that a new console with a game drought  simply doesn't sell. and does nothing for your "argument".

Wii U got Pikmin 3 in the summer yet its sales didnt climb. And its not just a "new console", its the worst selling console in a long time.

True, but I'm not sure if Japan really accounts for much. 

Impossible