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Forums - Gaming - Theory on how the PS4 is stronger AND cheaper.

Miguel_Zorro said:

OP, what's with your lifetime console sales predictions in your sig?  You might as well say they'll sell between what they've sold so far and infinity.  I've never seen ranges so wide.  What's the point?

Prediction for console Lifetime sales:

Wii=100-120 million

PS3=80-110 million

360=70-100 million


Completely false and unrealistic



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I think what MS is doing is ridiculous from the point of view of a core gamer. Kinect has already been on the market for a few years and we already know that it is and will remain totally useless for a core gamer. Why would I want to pay extra cash for it? The only reason why MS is bundling it is to allow us to swap channels (like I watched TV anyway...), to spy on us in order to give us profiled ads (awesome...) and to increase the market for casual Kinect games (again - priceless for me). To me it looks like they made a choice and decided that XO is going to be targeted at the casuals while pretending to be competing with PS4 for the core. The thing is, how many gamers will they fool into paying additional cash for a worse product with totally redundant functions?

I for one am very happy that Sony isn't bundling the Eye with the console. I don't need it, I don't want it, I want a cheaper console to play my core games.



Wii U is a GCN 2 - I called it months before the release!

My Vita to-buy list: The Walking Dead, Persona 4 Golden, Need for Speed: Most Wanted, TearAway, Ys: Memories of Celceta, Muramasa: The Demon Blade, History: Legends of War, FIFA 13, Final Fantasy HD X, X-2, Worms Revolution Extreme, The Amazing Spiderman, Batman: Arkham Origins Blackgate - too many no-gaemz :/

My consoles: PS2 Slim, PS3 Slim 320 GB, PSV 32 GB, Wii, DSi.

DucksUnlimited said:
catofellow said:
DucksUnlimited said:
You think they're taking a $40 loss on a peripheral? The original Kinect was a standalone product but it was still sold at a large profit.

Not being bundled, the eye obviously isn't a selling point for the PS4. The only reason it exists is as an extra source of revenue, just as the original PSeyes and Kinect were. Your "guarantee" is completely blind speculation.


Never said they were taking a $40 dollar loss.  Your inference that I said that is just blind speculation.

Same rationale applies to consoles being $100 more expensive for just a larger hard drive, or phone being $100 more expensive with extra flash memory.  Those products don't justify the increase in cost either, but they are the reason for it.

I never inferred that you did. I asked if that's what you thought. Hence the question mark.

The launch of a console is not the time to try and make a significant profit off of the hardware. If you're suggesting that Sony would have tried to make a $40+ profit off of the PSEye when they planned to bundle it, that goes against the long term strategy of taking losses at the start of a gen to gain an install base advantage, which is what Sony did with the PS1, PS2 and especially the PS3. It would be a stupid, shortsighted business plan, and there's no reason to believe, let alone try and guarantee, that they would go that route, from either a historical or business perspective.

 

What do you think the price of the bundled product would be?  I doubt they would sell at an odd price in USD of 460.  Consoles almost always launch at at the nearest 100, or sometimes 50.

A price point of 400 or 500 makes most sense, possibly 450.  I would say it is more likely than not they would opt for 500 if that makes you feel more comfortable than a guarantee.



Lifetime Sales Prediction - 6/29/2013
Wii U - 38 million
XBOX One - 88 million
Playstation 4 - 145 million

Do any hardcore gamers care about Kinect other than for novelty?



Sony has already stated they got rid of the eye to be a bit cheaper. So we were looking at $450-$460 vs $500, a lot easier to swallow that pill for sure.

Kinect is the obvious factor here but even if it costs MS $200+ I doubt they will release a Kinectless version at $300, unless things were looking extremely dire.



It's just that simple.

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catofellow said:
DucksUnlimited said:
catofellow said:
DucksUnlimited said:
You think they're taking a $40 loss on a peripheral? The original Kinect was a standalone product but it was still sold at a large profit.

Not being bundled, the eye obviously isn't a selling point for the PS4. The only reason it exists is as an extra source of revenue, just as the original PSeyes and Kinect were. Your "guarantee" is completely blind speculation.


Never said they were taking a $40 dollar loss.  Your inference that I said that is just blind speculation.

Same rationale applies to consoles being $100 more expensive for just a larger hard drive, or phone being $100 more expensive with extra flash memory.  Those products don't justify the increase in cost either, but they are the reason for it.

I never inferred that you did. I asked if that's what you thought. Hence the question mark.

The launch of a console is not the time to try and make a significant profit off of the hardware. If you're suggesting that Sony would have tried to make a $40+ profit off of the PSEye when they planned to bundle it, that goes against the long term strategy of taking losses at the start of a gen to gain an install base advantage, which is what Sony did with the PS1, PS2 and especially the PS3. It would be a stupid, shortsighted business plan, and there's no reason to believe, let alone try and guarantee, that they would go that route, from either a historical or business perspective.

 

What do you think the price of the bundled product would be?  I doubt they would sell at an odd price in USD of 460.  Consoles almost always launch at at the nearest 100, or sometimes 50.

A price point of 400 or 500 makes most sense, possibly 450.  I would say it is more likely than not they would opt for 500 if that makes you feel more comfortable than a guarantee.

I would guess $450, seeing as how it is far more likely they would take a loss on the hardware at launch than try to profit off of it. Although $50 for the camera might not even be a loss.



ethomaz said:
ironmanDX said:
Theory? The fact Sony got rid of the PsEye to reduce the cost by $100 is why it's cheap.

lol PSEye cost $20-30... it will be sold at $60 with profit.

Makes sense please.

My theory? Xbone is having production issues due the big and complex APU... it is likd $80-90 PS4 APU vs. $140-160 Xbone APU.

PS. If the productions issues with yields are so high the APU can cost over $200.

What's unknown with PS4 is how much of a loss they are taking with $399 so an auto-bundled Eye with every PS4 at launch would have been undertaken so that Sony could make a slight profit or almost no loss. So if for instance PS4 costs $420 and Eye costs $20, that's a cost to Sony of $440. Add to that a $20 retailer mark up and that's $460. Sony might as well slap $40 profit margin on there and be making decent money from of PS4 hardware right out of the gate. However it's pretty obvious that as of now Sony can't sell an Eye bundle for $499 without sweetening the pot with a game, at least.

I actually think if Sony had a choice between a loss making $399 console without Eye, and a profit making $499 console with Eye they made the wrong choice by going the $399 route. On a head to head price basis, outside of the UK and USA, PS4 will outcompete Xb One. So $499 was safe. However I think Sony was predicting MS would enter the market at $399 so they decided they needed to enter at $399 too. I think the bean counters at Sony are a bit miffed that they aren;t entering the market at $499.

Of course the other calculus is WiiU. Sony and MS will still be wary of Wii U even though it's tanking at the moment. Sony may have decided they didn't want to give WiiU a $150 price lead, so part of the $399 decision may indeed be to not be too far away from Wii U. Who's to say that Wii U wouldn't have seen a substantial lift in sales if PS4 and Xb One were both announced at $499? I think it's entirely possible that Wii U would have got a sustained lift in Sales, and potentially sold very well this holidays at a $150 price differential.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

papamudd said:
trixiemafia86 said:

If I recall, before the leaked specs, many people expected the Nextbox to be more powerful than the PS4. But it turns out the PS4 is cheaper and more powerful. I didn't expect this. is Kinect 2.0 worth the hassle? I don't think so. Time will tell wat can be achieved with Kinect.

That is simply not true all early indicators from devs said the ps4 was more powerful even when they were both using 4gb of ram

I'm talking about before we heard anything (before any statements or leaks) from devs, based on the fact that MS has more cash and can take higher losses Sony can't afford.  U get my point now right.



Smartest nam evila

Current Platforms: HighendPC[rip]/PS4/PS3[rip]/Vita[rip]

MonstaMack said:
Sony has already stated they got rid of the eye to be a bit cheaper. So we were looking at $450-$460 vs $500, a lot easier to swallow that pill for sure.

Kinect is the obvious factor here but even if it costs MS $200+ I doubt they will release a Kinectless version at $300, unless things were looking extremely dire.


They are about to loose the US & UK markets. How much more dire do you want it to be?



So by removing a $60 peripheral they saved $100, Ms should remove there £100 kinect 2, theyd save $180!

Made up logic for the win.