This will be a little long-winded so bear with me.

Fanboy-ism or console loyalty aside, hardware comparisons aside, and other non-essential opinions aside, there is only one issue that will determine this console war: Exclusivity vs. Ownership.

Let me explain. As things stand right now, PS4 lets you pretty much own your (disc) games and do whatever you want with them (aside from multiplayer-only games), while XboxOne seems to have more exclusives on show (for the moment), and we can expect third party publishers to want in on that (that level of DRM makes it much harder to pirate, and since it limits the used game market, more new game sales are inevitable).

First question: Why would DRM make publishers want to make their games exclusive to XboxOne? Here are two reasons:

1.) Steam has proven that if you have a platform that makes a game virtually immune to piracy, publishers will want to put stuff there. Take note at what Steam represents: it's a slightly less restrictive XboxOne on your PC. You MUST be online to activate and play your games, it says so in every box that you must have an active internet connection, but it does have an offline mode once you activate and you do not need to check in every 24 hours. Steam is very successful and many of the biggest games in the world are now exclusive to Steam. EA is following suit with Origin, and you can trust that many other publishers will want to hop on this train soon. Because the XboxOne is even more restrictive, said publishers may be attracted to the idea of:

2.) Limiting used games is an advantage to the bottom line, as it potentially increases the new game market, but this is a double edged sword; online passes kind of went the wrong way and people hated them, making companies unpopular (EA). However, if the exclusive is large enough, if the franchise is too irresistible, and if the reviews for said game are high enough, people will forget about all the DRM nonsense. Imagine if GTA6 were to go exclusive to Microsoft, simply because Rockstar wants no piracy and no used game sales. Wouldn't that swing the game towards the XboxOne? If not one game, what if an entire company were to go that direction, just as EA went to origin as its exclusive way to go? Though highly unlikely, the DRM does have a positive influence on publishers, and some may jump ship.

Of course, this will all turn on Microsoft if the ownership debate becomes a nightmare. Right now, it's not that bad yet. I mean, we haven't even seen this so-called restrictions in the flesh yet. The issue is exclusive to people who actually sell games and such at the moment. There are many gamers who don't even bother with that stuff, who have a constant internet connection, and who go on Steam with no qualms about the internet requirement.

What trump cards does Sony own at this moment? Actually, none. The ownership issue is solely a Microsoft issue, because they're the ones trying to bring about a new way of playing. Sony isn't going to get anything from the idea that "we can own the games", because we've always been able to. That's a constant. The ball is solely on Microsoft's court. So only two things can happen here:

1. Microsoft drops the ball, with server downtimes (making games unplayable), inability to secure enough third party exclusives, or they simply don't deliver a good enough online experience (E3 promises don't go well, such as SmartGlass sucking ass), then Sony wins immediately. Actually Sony will win completely with just a couple of days of Microsoft server downtime. Like if some hacker were to shut it down during COD week. PS4 owners still get to play the campaign after all.

2. Microsoft secures all its shit, gets big third party exclusives, and delivers on all its promises, then XboxOne wins. Sony is promising something that already exists. There's nothing new here. Sure, the PS4 is currently (and I mean currently) the choice of most people on the internet. But not everyone cares about that used games stuff. In the long run, if Microsoft's servers always hold up, then it'll potentially become like Steam, and dominate the console industry.

But what about the price issue? Well, in the short run, PS4 will definitely pull ahead because it's cheaper. But look at this generation so far: Xbox360 started cheaper, but now it's under PS3 in sales. The price levels will eventually level out. This is indeed a marathon, not a sprint (just like that dumb Microsoft PR guy keeps saying). It won't be a factor 5 years down the line.

The only factor is EXCLUSIVITY. Sorry for the long wall of text. I just had to get that off my chest with all the nonsense floating around in the internet. Btw, I have never owned any console aside from Sony ones in the modern era, and I will continue to do so because I personally don't care about Microsoft exclusives. Also, I own about 15 Steam games. I'm writing this based solely on market analysis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_games_using_Steam_authentication - A list of games that require Steam authentication. If Microsoft is able to do something like this with the XboxOne, then it'll kill the market. Imagine all these games requiring you to purchase an XboxOne. Only possible, of course, if MS does its shit right.

The issue is that there's a reason these publishers don't make their games exclusive to Steam: It's because consoles have a larger install base. And judging by preorders, I don't see the Xbox One having more exclusives than the PS4. The fact that MS isn't even clear on when and if they'll release in Japan reinforces this notion.

4 > 1

Just as I said, at the moment, XboxOne has more announced exclusives than PS4. And how this will play out in the future is completely up to Microsoft. If they are able to secure more third party exclusives due to the Steam-like approach, then they will potentially have a larger install base. However, if they fail to do so, then their install base will be smaller and they will lose outright. It all depends on MS, not Sony.

And sorry to say, the Japanese market is negligible at this point in time, especially for MS. I mean, do we really expect MS to do well in Japan after all this time?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_games_using_Steam_authentication

A list of games that require Steam authentication. I'm aware that these games are not necessarily purchased through Steam, but nonetheless, you must authenticate using Steam, which makes them "Steam run games". XboxOne seems to want to do pretty much the same thing.

It's hard to say that the Japanese market is neglible, especially considering Japan has the World's best developers (my opinion). Sure the 360 got some Japanese multiplats, but that's mainly because the console was neck in neck with the PS3 in terms of market share. If these preorder trends translate into overall world wide sales, I can bet you you'll see much more exclusive games coming out for the PS4 just from the Japanese developers alone.

How many giant Japanese franchises are still exclusive to Sony?

None. The last one, MGS, even showed their 5th game during the MS press conference. I agree that Japanese games are still the best, but they recognize that the market in the West is much larger than themselves.

Why would publishers fear second hand sales more then being able to play 2 instances of the same disc simultaneously, and in total 11 people (in different time zones) having access to those games, including DLC as well?

It's Ownership vs Digital license benefits.

Both sides will have exclusives but why would 3rd parties restrict themselves to one console, especially now the systems are so close in hardware setup? Most people don't own all consoles, by excluding one console you automatically lose far more sales.

The same reason EA games don't have Steam authentication. Granted, Steam and Origin are free, while the XboxOne and PS4 aren't. That's why it's a toss-up. As I said, if MS is able to do its shit right, the third parties would be attracted enough to sign up. Digital License benefits is exactly what I'm talking about. Are those benefits enough for third parties to sign over exclusivity? What are those benefits anyway?

Just like what I said: 1. No piracy, and 2. No used games. If the publisher deems these things to be big enough, they will sign exclusivity. And if enough of them do it, MS wins. IF.

Look at the PS2/Xbox/GC gen. PS2 received an abundance of third party exclusives despite the fact devs did not have to worry about trimming down the graphics for potential ports to other consoles, since the PS2 was the weakest of the three.

I'm assuming devs would look at 2 things when considering a port.

1) The ease of porting a game to a secondary/tertiary console(s). This doesn't only mean the game itself, but also the policies of the console manufacturer.

2) The install base of said consoles to see if porting would be profitable.

Right now number 2 is not looking so hot for the X1, and number 1 is up to debate. MS has a weaker console with very limited memory. Since the PS4 has 7Gb of GDDR ram, devs might want to cut development costs and release games that require less optimization solely for the PS4.

Since when? PC piracy hasn't seen much of a hit because of Steam and it doesn't look that it will as long as the consumers remain uneducated.